WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 9/6/2025

Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.

Sep 07, 2025

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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #16 — Saturday, September 6, 2025

CYBR and GOOGL hit their targets, locking in 20% and 39% price rallies, respectively. BABA and APPL are nearing their targets. TSLA, MU, and BNB/USDT are looking strong. AVAX/USDT and SOL/USDT are potentially looking strong as well.

Macro snapshot

Jobs (Aug / Sep 5 release): Nonfarm payrolls +22k in August; unemployment 4.3% — a notably soft print that pushed markets to re-price a September cut.
ISM Manufacturing (Aug / Sep 2): 48.7 — manufacturing remains in modest contraction; new orders improved slightly but the sector remains weak.
JOLTS (Jul / Sep 3): job openings fell materially versus June (down several hundred thousand), reinforcing the narrative of a cooling labor market.
Initial jobless claims (week ending Aug 30 / Sep 4 release): 237k — claims ticked up, consistent with gradual easing in labor-market tightness.
Productivity & unit-labor-costs (Q2 revised / Sep 4): productivity revised and unit-labor-cost growth eased versus early reads — a constructive datapoint for the inflation outlook.

Takeaway: last week’s data were skewed toward labor-market cooling + durable-activity softness, with ISM manufacturing weak. That combo left markets leaning toward easier policy expectations. Keep in mind the inflation calendar next week (PPI/CPI) which can re-introduce hawkish repricing if upside surprises arrive.

Catalysts in view

(keep position sizes and hedges light until CPI/PPI prints resolve)

Wed Sep 10 - 8:30 AM: PPI (Aug) — wholesale inflation read (high market leverage).
Thu Sep 11 - 8:30 AM: CPI (Aug) — the headline, core prints will be the biggest near-term policy/input for the Fed.
Fri Sep 12 - 10:00 AM: University of Michigan preliminary Sentiment (Sep) — tells you how consumers feel after the latest prints and tariffs headlines.

Risk Gauge

VIX: ~15-16 (low-mid teens; modestly higher intraday).
DXY: ~97.7-98.2 (dollar roughly in the high-97s).
10-yr UST: ~4.07% (yields eased after the jobs miss).
BTC perp funding: near-neutral (≈0.005–0.01% / 8h) — no extreme leverage skew but watch for divergence post-data.

Risk Read: tape = risk-on conditional on dovish Fed pricing but still headline-sensitive. Soft jobs + cooler claims reduce odds of near-term tightening, which supports equities and duration, yet PPI/CPI next week remain the primary re-pricers. Size accordingly and keep reaction rules simple.

Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)