WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 9/27/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #19 — Saturday, September 27, 2025
After looking at the markets, I have decided to give last week’s setups one more week to trigger. If we get the market rally expected next week then it’s possible that most, if not all, will hit entry by next Saturday, and that will indicate further rally than initially expected allowing me to add secondary targets to them as well. So, these could turn out to be quite profitable like the recent TSLA trade. The only addition I have added this week is WDAY, since the ASML entry was triggered this past week.
Macro snapshot
PCE / Personal Income (Aug): Core PCE cooled modestly — core PCE +0.2% m/m; core PCE = 2.9% y/y — a relief read that helped the “cut path” narrative but didn’t remove upside inflation risks. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Durable Goods (Aug, advance): New orders +2.9% m/m (led by transportation/aircraft), reversing two months of declines; ex-transport still showed only modest growth (+0.4% ex-transport). Durable-goods strength keeps capex story alive, but it’s concentrated. Census.gov
Flash PMIs (Sep 23): S&P Global composite fell to ~53.6 (from 54.6) — expansion continues but momentum softened into September. That slowing helps explain the dovish tilt in risk pricing even as activity remains positive. S&P Global PMI
Labor / claims (week ended Sep 20): Weekly initial jobless claims fell to ~218k, a pullback from the prior spike and a mixed datapoint for the Fed’s labor/read-through. Reuters
Takeaway: this week delivered the classic “softening momentum + still-positive activity” mix: inflation (PCE) is benign enough to leave room for cuts, durable-goods and services spending still show pockets of strength, and labor remains soft-but-not-collapsing. Positioning should be conditional risk-on with tight, pre-defined reaction rules.
Catalysts in view
Tue (Sep 30) — JOLTS (job openings) and batch of Fed speakers (watch hiring trends vs. the payroll preview).
Fri (Oct 3) — 08:30 ET: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) — the big one that will reprice the Fed path if it surprises materially. Consensus is for a modest print; any upside surprise will pressure rate-cut bets.
All week: corporate earnings (Nike, others), Fed speakers, and event-risk around potential government/shutdown headlines — each can amplify market moves in either direction.
Why it matters: after a PCE print that eased near-term inflation fears, markets will hang on labor and JOLTS signals for confirmation. A hot payroll or resilient JOLTS → yields/USD up → tighten stops on duration; weak payrolls → risk-on, add small size to high-conviction longs.
Risk Gauge
VIX: low-mid teens (~15-17) — contained but primed to spike into payrolls or shock headlines.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): ~98.1 — rangebound after the PCE print; a useful “if-then” handle for trimming risk.
10-yr UST: ~4.15-4.20% (yields ticked higher late-week with mixed data flow).
Equity tape: indexes rallied into Friday and snapped a short losing streak — S&P 500 ~6,644 (close Sep 26) but finished the week slightly negative overall. Positioning is lean long but fragile.
Crypto: still functional risk-on bid following the “cut path” story; funding rates and flows should be watched closely into payrolls.
Risk read: the desk view is conditional risk-on but event-sensitive. Keep per-trade risk small, prefer limit entries, size for 1R, and have explicit trim/hedge rules for payroll surprises or sudden tariff/government headlines.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)