WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 9/20/2025
Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.
WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #18 — Saturday, September 20, 2025
FLEX, AAPL, PANW, and SOL/USDT are nearing their respective targets. TSLA is less than $2 from it’s 2nd TP, so you can take profit of almost 35% and close out the trade if you’d like or you can hold to see if it can rally the final short bit to the 2nd TP.
Macro snapshot
Fed cut & tone: The FOMC delivered a 25 bp cut on Sep 17, taking the target to 4.00-4.25%, and Powell framed the move as “risk-management” while keeping the committee data-dependent going forward. Reuters
Labor flow: Weekly initial jobless claims retraced from the prior surge and fell to ~231k for the week ending Sep 13; a softer-but-not-collapsing labor tape that helped justify the Fed’s move. AP News
Yields & market reaction: Long yields ticked modestly higher into and after the decision; the 10-yr finished the week ~4.06% after repricing around the FOMC. Risk assets nevertheless pushed higher and equities hit fresh highs into Friday. FRED
Activity pulse: PMI and high-frequency activity surveys signaled solid Q3 growth overall but with weaker business optimism. The “soft-landing or bumpy plateau” story remains alive as markets balance easing hopes against sticky parts of the economy. S&P Global
Takeaway: This past week’s data + Fed cut created a conditional risk-on posture: markets rallied into fresh highs, but rising long yields and mixed activity/optimism keep the tape fragile. Size carefully and predefine reactions for the coming data prints.
Catalysts in view
Tue Sep 23 — 09:45 AM: S&P Global US PMI (Sep, flash) — early read on services/manufacturing momentum. S&P Global
Tue Sep 23 — 08:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders (Aug, advance) — capex/read on goods demand; watch ex-transport. S&P Global
Wed Sep 24 — 08:30 AM: Advance GDP (Q3, initial reads begin for many regions) — early growth signals matter for risk positioning. S&P Global
Thu Sep 25 — 08:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) — continue to monitor labor-market momentum after the prior week’s swing. Reuters
Cross-week: corporate earnings (late-cycle tech & cyclicals) and Fed speakers — any stronger-than-expected activity or inflation prints would re-open market repricing.
Why to watch: after the Fed cut the market is keyed to high-frequency activity prints to decide whether the easing path is sustained (risk-on/long duration) or prematurely priced (yield re-tightening / growth repricing).
Risk Gauge
VIX: 15-16 (low-mid teens; muted but able to spike on fresh macro surprises.).
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): ~97.6-97.9 (dollar wound in after the cut; watch for follow-through if yields change.).
10-yr UST: ~4.11% (moved modestly higher into the post-FOMC window).
Crypto / Risk Assets: BTC and crypto markets rallied around the Fed move and broader risk bid; nevertheless, funding and flows should be monitored for quick reversals on data.
Risk read: tape is conditional risk-on: markets prefer equities and duration into a possible cut, but the sequence (FOMC → retail/activity prints → earnings) is high-leverage. Keep position sizing conservative and pre-define trim/hedge rules for the decision window.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)