WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 9/13/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #17 — Saturday, September 13, 2025
TSLA hit the first TP, stop loss moved up to 352. You can exit the trade, exit partially and hold on for the second TP, or just hold on for the second TP. MU gapped up through the TP giving us a bit of extra profit to close the trade. BNB/USDT has almost reached target and SOL/USDT is getting close as well.
Macro snapshot
PPI (Aug — Sep 10): Wholesale inflation softened. The BLS PPI release showed upside pressures cooling in August, taking some immediate pressure off the policy path. That print helped push front-end yields down into mid-week. Bureau of Labor Statistics
CPI (Aug — Sep 11): All-items CPI +2.9% y/y (Aug); core CPI (ex-food & energy) +3.1% y/y. Headline ticked up vs July while core remains sticky. The mixed read left markets parsing whether disinflation is durable. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor / claims (week ended Sep 6, released Sep 11): Initial claims rose to ~263k, a notable uptick that reinforces the labor-market cooling signal markets have been watching. Reuters
Market action: Stocks finished the week resilient. The S&P 500 ended the week near record levels after digesting the data and positioning for the Fed meeting. (S&P EOD ~6,584 on Friday). AP News
Takeaway: the past week was a classic “data-mix” week: PPI cooled, CPI core stayed sticky, and claims moved higher. Markets priced more optionality for a September cut while remaining sensitive to the incoming FOMC signal. Position with size discipline into next week.
Catalysts in view
Tue-Wed Sep 16-17: FOMC meeting & Powell press conference — the highest-probability market mover next week (rate decision + SEP). Markets expect some easing, but the Fed’s communication will drive intraday and multi-day flow.
Tue Sep 16 — 08:30 AM: Retail Sales (Aug): early read on consumer spending ahead of the SEP; important for risk/retail names.
Cross-week: earnings (tech & cyclicals), Fed speakers, and any tariff/regulatory headlines. Any hawkish-sounding nuance or stronger-than-expected prints can undo the “cut now” pricing quickly.
Why to watch: FOMC + Powell is the headline; retail and earnings provide the second-order signals that will shape whether cuts are treated as “insurance” (risk-on) or “panic” (flight-to-quality).
Risk Gauge
VIX: ~14.7 (low-mid teens; subdued overall).
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): ~97.6-97.9 (dollar modestly softer on the week).
10-yr UST: ~4.01% (yields eased after the week’s data).
Crypto funding: desk reads show funding roughly neutral (~+0.01% / 8h) — no obvious leverage skew, but watch for divergences after the FOMC.
Risk read: tape is conditional risk-on: markets prefer equities and duration into a possible cut, but the sequence (FOMC → retail/activity prints → earnings) is high-leverage. Keep position sizing conservative and pre-define trim/hedge rules for the decision window.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)