WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 8/9/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #13 — Saturday, August 9, 2025
Macro snapshot
The Fed held rates at 4.25%-4.50% on July 30 with two dissents to cut; Powell reiterated data dependence. Since then, July payrolls disappointed at +73k with unemployment at 4.2%, reinforcing a “wait-and-see” path into mid-August inflation data. Manufacturing softened (ISM Mfg 48.0), while services barely expanded (ISM Services 50.1). Into CPI/PPI week, the dollar and long rates are firm, and equities ended the week higher.
Catalysts in view
Tue, Aug 12
CPI (July) – 8:30 AM.
Real Earnings (July) – 8:30 AM.
Monthly Treasury Statement (July) – 2:00 PM (8th business day).
Thu, Aug 14
PPI (July) – 8:30 AM.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30 AM.
Fri, Aug 15
Advance Retail Sales (July) – 8:30 AM.
Import & Export Price Indexes (July) – 8:30 AM.
Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (July) – 9:15 AM.
Business Inventories (MTIS – June) – 10:00 AM.
Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (Aug prelim) – 10:00 AM.
These releases will inform the trajectory for bond yields, dollar strength, and equity sentiment as markets digest fresh inflation and labor‐market data heading into mid‐August.
Risk Gauge (today vs. last week)
Volatility remains subdued, but yields and the dollar are holding firm into a high-stakes data week.
VIX: 15.15
DXY: 98.264
10‑yr UST: 4.285%
BTC Funding: +0.008%
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
