WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 8/8/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #63 — Saturday, August 8, 2026
I was ill last week, which was why we didn’t release an issue last week. But I am back now.
DEO stop loss moved up into profit at 84.94. SHOP stop loss moved up into profit at 141.33. ADA/USDT stop loss moved up into profit at 0.1745.
SNOW stopped out in profit at 259.64.
SCHW hit target at 108.80. ANET hit target at 207.09. SNAP hit target at 5.82.
Macro snapshot
The market regained control. Just two weeks ago, higher yields, stronger energy prices, and tightening financial conditions were forcing investors to question whether the rally had finally run its course. This week answered that question.
SPY closes at 773.26. NDX rebounds sharply to 29,722. QQQ finishes at 723.03. Small caps break above 3,000 to 3,034. Bitcoin stabilizes at 64,934 while ETH climbs to 1,916. Gold rebounds to 4,341. Silver recovers to 63.47. Oil retreats to 77.47. The 10-year yield finishes at 4.649%. DXY falls back below 100 to 99.60. VIX drops to 14.90 while MOVE declines to 72.03.
The headline wasn’t simply that stocks rallied. It was why they rallied.
Oil has now retraced nearly 15 points from its late-July highs, easing inflation concerns just as earnings season delivered better-than-feared results. At the same time, the dollar weakened, bond volatility moderated, and equity volatility fell back into a firmly complacent regime.
Perhaps the most impressive development is that equities accomplished this while the 10-year Treasury yield remained near 4.65%. Historically, those yields would create meaningful valuation pressure. Instead, markets chose to reward earnings resilience over interest-rate concerns. Small caps reclaiming 3,000 confirms that participation has broadened again beyond mega-cap technology.
Crypto remains the notable exception. Bitcoin continues holding the mid-$60,000s, but TOTAL3 slipped to 660B, showing speculative capital has yet to return in force. Investors remain comfortable owning profitable companies while staying selective in higher-risk assets.
The takeaway: financial conditions improved enough to reignite the equity rally, but the leadership remains disciplined rather than euphoric. That’s generally a healthier backdrop than indiscriminate speculation.
Catalysts in View
Next week shifts from earnings toward inflation and consumer health.
• CPI Inflation Report
The market’s primary macro catalyst. With oil falling and financial conditions improving, investors will look for confirmation that inflation continues moving in the right direction. A cooler-than-expected print would reinforce the current rally. A surprise to the upside would likely pressure yields and high-multiple growth stocks.
• Producer Price Index (PPI)
Producer inflation will help determine whether pricing pressures are easing throughout the supply chain or simply shifting downstream.
• Retail Sales
Consumer spending remains the engine of the economy. Markets will be watching closely for confirmation that household demand remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs.
• Fed Speakers
Following the inflation data, policymakers will have an opportunity to shape expectations regarding the path of monetary policy into the fall.
• Treasury Market Reaction
The 10-year yield remains near 4.65%. Markets have largely ignored higher yields during earnings season. The next question is whether they continue doing so once attention shifts back to macro data.
Next week marks the transition from an earnings-driven market back to a macro-driven market. Inflation will likely determine whether the rally broadens further or pauses for consolidation.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 14.90 reflects a firmly established low-volatility environment. MOVE at 72.03 remains above spring lows but continues trending in the right direction, suggesting Treasury market stress is gradually easing.
Rates
US10Y at 4.649% remains elevated. The encouraging development is that yields have stopped accelerating. Stable rates at current levels are far easier for equities to digest than rapidly rising ones.
Dollar
DXY at 99.60 falling back below 100 improves global liquidity conditions and provides another tailwind for risk assets.
Equities
SPY at 773 confirms the primary uptrend remains intact. NDX has reclaimed much of July’s weakness, while the Russell 2000 breaking above 3,000 reinforces improving breadth across the market.
Crypto
BTC at 64,934 remains range-bound. ETH at 1,916 continues recovering gradually. TOTAL3 at 660B shows broader crypto participation remains subdued, while BTC dominance at 59.37 reflects continued preference for larger digital assets.
Commodities
Gold at 4,341 and silver at 63.47 recovered this week as the dollar softened. Oil at 77.47 remains one of the most constructive macro developments, continuing to remove inflation pressure from the system.
Overall Risk Posture
Constructive.
The combination of lower oil prices, a softer dollar, improving breadth, and subdued volatility continues to support the bull trend.
The biggest risk has shifted from earnings disappointment back to macro data. If inflation cooperates, the market has room to extend higher. If it doesn’t, yields near 4.65% leave less room for valuation expansion than they did earlier this year.
