WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 8/30/2025

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Aug 31, 2025

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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #15 — Saturday, August 30, 2025

Last week’s trade setups didn’t hit entry, but instead of removing them I have decided to play them one more week. The setups are really good and we likely just saw further derisking ahead of the Labor Day Holiday weekend this past week. If you are looking to trade other alts, look for the same structure and set up as the five setups below. Many alts look very similar and you can transfer those same basic ideas for entries, stop losses, and take profits to other alt charts. Also PSTG had a great gap up through our take profit which means you likely notched an additional 10-15% price appreciation in your profit at the very least that day.

Macro snapshot

GDP surprise (Aug 28): BEA revised Q2 GDP higher — second estimate +3.3% annualized, a material upside to early reads and a reason growth-sensitive assets caught a bid mid-week.
Durable goods (Aug 26): July orders fell −2.8% m/m (transportation led the decline) but ex-transport rose modestly — mixed signal for capex.
Initial jobless claims (Aug 28 release): weekly claims for the period ending Aug 23 printed 229k (down 5k from prior), consistent with a cooling-but-not-collapsing labor market.
PCE (Aug 29): Personal Consumption Expenditures (July) — headline PCE +0.2% m/m; core PCE +0.3% m/m (core ~2.9% y/y) — broadly in line with expectations but a reminder that services/core inflation remains the stickiest component. Market reaction was muted but data kept the Fed’s “data dependent” language front-and-center.

Takeaway: last week’s data were a classic mixed bag — stronger growth (Q2 GDP revision) + softer claims vs. sticky core inflation at the margins. That keeps September Fed optionality live: markets priced in cuts after Powell, but PCE/core steadying and mixed activity prints mean positioning should stay cautious as upcoming labor/activity prints arrive.

Catalysts in view

(holiday note: U.S. markets closed Mon Sep 1 for Labor Day)

Tue Sep 2 — 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing (Aug) — first business-day manufacturing read; watch new orders & employment subindexes.
Wed Sep 3 — 10:00 AM: JOLTS (Jul) — job openings; will feed the Sep jobs/ Fed debate.
Thu Sep 4 — 08:30 AM: Productivity & Costs (Q2, revised) — unit-labor-costs / productivity revision can influence the inflation narrative.
Fri Sep 5 — 08:30 AM: Employment Situation (Aug, NFP) — the high-leverage print for Fed timing; expect headline sensitivity.
Cross-week: Fed speakers + earnings flow — any hawkish nuance or strong payrolls/inflation prints can re-price yields and cut odds quickly.

Risk Gauge

VIX: ~14–15 (low-to-mid teens; volatility remains subdued).
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): ~97.7–97.9 (soft versus mid-week as cut odds rose).
10-yr UST yield: ~4.2–4.3% (clustered around ~4.24% into the close after the week’s data/speech mix).
BTC perpetual funding: slightly positive (~+0.007–0.01% per 8h) — small long-skew but no runaway leverage signal.

Risk Read: markets closed the week risk-on in tone after the GDP revision and Powell-era optionality, but sticky core PCE + mixed activity prints make the tape fragile. The coming week’s ISM → JOLTS → Productivity → NFP sequence is the next high-probability re-pricer — size trims and pre-defined reaction rules remain imperative.

Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)