WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 8/23/2025

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Aug 24, 2025

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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #14 — Saturday, August 23, 2025

Trades that are nearing their targets include CYBR, PSTG, DYDEX/USDT, BNB/USDT, Trades that hit target since Wednesday include HPE, Overall, we should likely see continued rally this week after Friday’s surge higher which means we could see multiple trades hit their targets.

Macro snapshot

Powell opened the door — at Jackson Hole (Aug 22) Chair Powell signaled the balance of risks is shifting and left the possibility of a near-term rate cut squarely in play; markets interpreted the tone as dovish.
Risk rally: Stocks jumped on the message — Dow hit a fresh record and the S&P/Nasdaq rallied into the close.
Yields fell: The 10-yr Treasury eased to roughly 4.26% as traders re-priced Fed cut odds.
Dollar softened: DXY slid toward ~97.7 as rate-cut probability rose.
Labor note: Initial jobless claims rose to 235k (week ended Aug 16), a small softening that fed the “cut optionality” narrative.

Takeaway: Powell’s Jackson Hole tone turned the data-mix from ambiguous to risk-friendly this week; equities and crypto rallied, yields and the dollar eased, but the calendar (PCE, durable goods, income) still has the power to re-rate positioning into early September.

Catalysts in view

Mon Aug 25 — 10:00 AM: New-Home Sales (Jul).
Tue Aug 26 — 08:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders (Jul, advance).
Tue Aug 26 — 10:00 AM: Conference Board — Consumer Confidence (Aug).
Fri Aug 29 — 08:30 AM: Personal Income & Outlays / PCE (Jul) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (Core PCE).

These releases, especially PCE on Aug 29 and Tuesday’s durable-goods read, will be the next high-leverage inputs for yields, the dollar, and the September Fed-pricing story.

Risk Gauge

Volatility remains subdued, but yields and the dollar are holding firm into a high-stakes data week.

VIX: mid-teens (slumped after Powell; readings moved between ~14-16 this week).
DXY: ~97.7 (weaker after Powell).
10-yr UST: ~4.26% (yields down on dovish Powell repricing).
BTC perpetual funding: ~neutral / +0.01% (8h), mild long skew but not extreme.

Risk read: Powell’s remarks pushed a near-term risk-on tape (equities bid, yields lower, DXY softer). That tilt is tradeable but fragile: PCE (Aug 29) and Tuesday’s durable-goods/consumer reads can quickly reverse the story. Keep sizing tight, set alerts for the catalyst times above, and predefine trim/hedge rules before the prints.

Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)