WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #65 — Saturday, August 22, 2026
DEO stop moved further into profit at 90.11. CAG stop moved further into profit at 15.90. TAO/USDT stop moved into profit at 213.10. TRX/USDT stop moved into profit at 0.3350. MOG/USDT stop moved into profit at 0.0000001132. LINK/USDT stop moved further into profit at 10.844. COMP/USDT stop moved into profit at 17.73. DASH/USDT stop moved into profit at 36.30. BNB/USDT stop moved into profit at 667.27.
Macro snapshot
This week the market split into two very different stories. SPY closes at 765.72. NDX slips back below 30,000 to 29,308. QQQ finishes at 713.44. Small caps ease to 3,018. Bitcoin surges to 77,022 while ETH jumps to 2,417. TOTAL3 expands sharply to 747B. Gold advances to 4,603 and silver climbs to 68.95. Oil pushes higher again to 87.57. The 10-year yield rises to 4.736%. DXY weakens to 98.84. VIX remains subdued at 15.13 while MOVE edges higher to 73.40.
The headline is rotation. Equities cooled as yields moved higher, but capital didn’t leave risk. It migrated. Crypto was the clearest beneficiary. Bitcoin broke decisively higher, Ethereum accelerated, and TOTAL3 gained nearly 90B from last week’s level. That is the broadest digital-asset participation we’ve seen in months. Unlike prior Bitcoin-only rallies, this move is finally pulling the rest of the complex with it.
At the same time, the bond market remains the pressure point. The 10-year is now approaching 4.75%, while the 30-year sits at 5.28%. MOVE is also creeping higher again. Equity volatility remains remarkably calm, but long-duration assets are being asked to absorb increasingly restrictive financing conditions.
Oil’s rebound toward 88 adds another layer. Energy is no longer providing the clean disinflationary tailwind it was earlier this summer. Yet the weaker dollar is offsetting some of that tightening. DXY below 99 improves global liquidity conditions and helps explain why crypto, metals, and other dollar-sensitive assets caught a bid even as Treasury yields rose.
The takeaway: risk appetite remains alive, but it’s rotating away from the equity leadership that dominated the summer. The next phase may be less about whether capital is leaving markets and more about where that capital chooses to go.
Catalysts in View
Next week is unusually concentrated, with the key macro releases arriving in the middle of the week.
• Personal Income and Outlays / PCE Inflation (Wednesday)
The July Personal Income and Outlays report, including the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measures, is scheduled for August 26. With Treasury yields already near recent highs, an upside inflation surprise would put immediate pressure on duration-sensitive assets. A softer print would give the bond market badly needed relief.
• Q2 GDP Second Estimate + Corporate Profits (Wednesday)
The second estimate of second-quarter GDP arrives alongside updated corporate profit data. Markets will be looking less for a dramatic GDP revision and more for confirmation that underlying growth and earnings power remain resilient.
• Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday)
July durable goods data will provide another read on business investment and future production demand. With markets debating how durable the expansion really is, capex strength matters.
• New Home Sales (Tuesday)
July new-home sales arrive August 25. Housing remains one of the clearest transmission channels for elevated long-term rates, making this an important test with the 10-year above 4.7%.
• Jackson Hole / Fed Communication (Friday)
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28. With the next FOMC meeting not until September, this becomes the week’s most important policy communication event.
Next week is about the collision between growth, inflation, and long-duration yields. The bond market is already asking harder questions. The data now has to answer them.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 15.13 continues to signal calm in equities. MOVE at 73.40 is less comfortable and shows that rates volatility is rebuilding underneath the surface. That divergence deserves attention.
Rates
US10Y at 4.736% is the clearest macro risk on the board. The 30-year at 5.28% reinforces the message that long-duration financing remains expensive. Equities can tolerate high yields for a while. Rapidly rising yields are a different problem.
Dollar
DXY at 98.84 is providing an important counterweight to higher Treasury yields. Continued dollar weakness would support global liquidity, commodities, and crypto. A reversal back above 100 would tighten conditions quickly.
Equities
SPY at 765 remains structurally strong, but NDX below 30,000 and QQQ at 713 show that large-cap growth has lost some momentum. Small caps near 3,018 remain relatively resilient, which argues against calling this broad risk-off behavior.
Crypto
BTC at 77,022 is the strongest move on the board. ETH at 2,417 confirms broader participation, while TOTAL3 at 747B shows that liquidity is finally spreading beyond Bitcoin. BTC dominance at 59.80 remains elevated, but this week’s structure is considerably healthier than the Bitcoin-only rallies earlier this summer.
Commodities
Gold at 4,603 and silver at 68.95 strengthened alongside the weaker dollar. Oil at 87.57 is the variable to watch. Continued upside would begin feeding back into inflation expectations just as PCE returns to center stage.
Overall Risk Posture
Constructive, but increasingly rate-sensitive. Risk appetite has rotated, it hasn’t disappeared. Equities are cooling while crypto, metals, and other dollar-sensitive assets are attracting capital. The market can continue absorbing that rotation as long as bond volatility remains orderly.
The real danger isn’t that yields are high. It’s that they’re still rising.