WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 8/2/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #12 — Saturday, August 2, 2025
Macro snapshot
Labor market cools: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 73,000 jobs in July (versus 110,000 expected), while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%
Inflation remains sticky: Core PCE (June) advanced 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts
Manufacturing slump: June durable goods orders fell 9.3% to $311.85B, the steepest drop in five years, though ex-transportation orders still eked out a +0.2% gain
Housing market soggy: Existing home sales dipped 2.7% to 3.93M annualized in June, marking a nine-month low amid mortgage rates near 7%.
Crypto sentiment: BTC perpetual funding averages about +0.008% per 8 hours across major venues; slightly positive readings that point to a mild long bias in derivatives markets.
Catalysts in view
Mon Aug 4 – U.S. Factory Orders (June) at 10:00 AM ET
Tue Aug 5 – ISM Services PMI (July) at 10:00 AM ET
Tue Aug 5 – Trade Balance (July) at 8:30 AM ET
Wed Aug 6 – EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 AM ET
Thu Aug 7 – Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET
Fri Aug 8 – No major U.S. releases (Fed speakers, earnings continue)
These releases will inform the trajectory for bond yields, dollar strength, and equity sentiment as markets digest fresh inflation and labor‐market data heading into mid‐August.
Risk Gauge (today vs. last week)
Volatility remains subdued, but yields and the dollar are holding firm into a high-stakes data week.
VIX: 20.38
DXY: 98.68
10‑yr UST: 4.216%
BTC Funding: +0.008%
Risk appetite is muted: equity volatility has jumped, the dollar is pausing its rally, and bond yields are under downward pressure. Watch for directional breakthroughs once the big macro releases hit next week.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)