WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 8/16/2025

Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.

Aug 17, 2025

∙ Paid

WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #13 — Saturday, August 9, 2025

You will notice that I’ve started giving the crypto entries a bit more room for entry so you have more time to look at the charts before entering. Remember, stop losses do not activate until AFTER price breaks out above entry. So, if price drops below the stop loss, without breaking the entry first, the trade setup remains valid. If price breaches the entry and then pulls back below the stop loss, you will be considered stopped out.

Macro snapshot

Inflation: July CPI showed headline +0.2% m/m (2.7% y/y); core CPI +0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y); services remain the stickiest element.
Wholesale prices hot: July PPI jumped +0.9% m/m (3.3% y/y), the largest monthly rise in ~3 years; a reminder of upstream pressure on consumer prices.
Labor flows: Weekly initial jobless claims most recently 224k (week ended Aug 9/14 releases), still consistent with a cooling-but-tight labor market.
Market reaction: Hot PPI pushed short-term Fed-cut odds down a touch and nudged yields higher, leaving the Fed’s September cut path live but narrower.

Catalysts in view

Mon Aug 18 — NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug) at 10:00 AM ET.
Tue Aug 19 — Housing Starts / Building Permits (Jul) at 8:30 AM ET.
Wed Aug 20 — FOMC (July) Meeting Minutes released (timed release). Watch for dovish/hawkish nuance.
Thu–Sat Aug 21–23 — Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (Kansas City Fed); Powell slated to speak (market-moving).
Thu Aug 21 — Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (08:30 AM ET); corporate calendar: Walmart and other retailers report (Aug 21).

These items will dominate yield/dollar/real-rate flows and set the tone into FOMC decision windows.

Risk Gauge

Volatility remains subdued, but yields and the dollar are holding firm into a high-stakes data week.

VIX: 15.09
DXY: 97.839
10‑yr UST: 4.322%
BTC Funding: +0.005%

Takeaway: inflation datapoints (PPI + sticky core CPI) tightened the macro picture this week: volatility stayed subdued (VIX low) but yields nudged higher, so risk assets may chop into Jackson Hole and FOMC-minutes week. Watch short-term directional moves in yields and the dollar after Powell’s address; that will likely re-price equities and crypto leadership into September.

Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)