WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/5/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #59 — Sunday, July 5, 2026
We are publishing a day later than normal this week due to the July 4th holiday weekend.
Macro snapshot
The first half ended. The second half began with a vote of confidence. SPY closes at 744.78. NDX finishes at 29,329. QQQ at 712.60. Small caps hold near record territory at 2,996. Bitcoin rebounds above 63K to 63,576 while ETH recovers to 1,793. Gold bounces to 4,190. Silver stabilizes near 63.08. Oil continues its slide to 69.14. The 10-year yield sits at 4.485%. DXY eases modestly to 100.86. VIX falls back to 15.81 while MOVE declines to 65.40.
The market spent the week reinforcing the same message it has been sending since late June. Financial conditions continue to improve. Oil has now fallen below $70, removing one of the largest inflation headwinds that dominated the spring. Bond volatility continues drifting lower. Equity volatility remains firmly in complacent territory. Despite Treasury yields remaining near 4.5%, stocks have continued to absorb higher rates with remarkably little stress.
Leadership also broadened again. Large-cap technology remains strong, but the Russell 2000 continues holding near its highs, suggesting participation is extending beyond the mega-cap names that carried much of the first half. That’s generally a healthier backdrop than a narrow, AI-driven rally.
Crypto also showed signs of stabilization. Bitcoin reclaimed the mid-$60,000 area while TOTAL3 recovered modestly to 687B. The rebound remains tentative, but after several weeks of heavy selling, digital assets are finally beginning to trade with the broader risk-on environment instead of against it.
The takeaway: the second half begins with improving liquidity, declining inflation pressure from energy, and remarkably resilient equity markets. The trend remains constructive, but expectations are now considerably higher than they were just one month ago.
Catalysts in view
The first full week of July shifts attention back toward inflation, earnings expectations, and the Fed.
• FOMC Minutes
Markets will dissect the minutes for any indication of how policymakers are balancing easing inflation against still-resilient economic activity. Any change in tone around future rate cuts could quickly move both yields and equities.
• Initial Jobless Claims
Labor remains the market’s anchor. Continued stability reinforces the soft-landing narrative, while an unexpected deterioration would immediately become the dominant macro story.
• Treasury Auctions and Yield Behavior
The 10-year remains pinned near 4.5%. Markets have tolerated these levels remarkably well, but any renewed move higher would begin tightening financial conditions again.
• Corporate Guidance and Early Earnings Positioning
Investors will begin positioning ahead of earnings season. Forward guidance now matters more than backward-looking results, particularly after such a strong first half.
• Crypto Liquidity
Bitcoin has stabilized, but the broader digital asset market continues to lag equities. Watch whether TOTAL3 can continue recovering while Bitcoin dominance begins easing. That would signal improving participation beneath the surface.
Next week isn’t about one headline. It’s about whether the improving macro backdrop can continue carrying increasingly optimistic positioning.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 15.81 remains firmly inside a low-volatility regime. MOVE at 65.40 continues confirming orderly conditions in the Treasury market.Rates
US10Y at 4.485% remains elevated, but importantly, it has stopped accelerating. Markets have demonstrated an ability to coexist with yields in this range as long as volatility stays contained.Dollar
DXY at 100.86 remains relatively firm but no longer appears to be strengthening aggressively. A sustained move back below 100 would become another tailwind for global liquidity.Equities
SPY at 744 continues holding its primary uptrend. NDX remains just below 30,000 while the Russell 2000 near 3,000 confirms improving market breadth and healthier participation across sectors.Crypto
BTC at 63,576 continues repairing the June breakdown. ETH at 1,793 has recovered but remains below key resistance. TOTAL3 at 687B shows liquidity slowly returning, while BTC dominance at 58.5 suggests capital remains concentrated in larger digital assets.Commodities
Gold at 4,190 has stabilized after its sharp decline. Silver at 63.08 continues consolidating. Oil at 69.14 is arguably the most important number on the board, significantly reducing inflation pressure as the second half begins.
Overall Risk PostureConstructive.
Volatility remains subdued. Bond markets are orderly. Energy prices continue falling. Those are supportive conditions for risk assets.
The biggest challenge entering July isn’t deteriorating macro data. It’s elevated expectations. After a strong first half, markets now require continued execution from both the economy and corporate earnings to justify current valuations.
