The Market Breakdown

The Market Breakdown

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The Market Breakdown
The Market Breakdown
WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/5/2025

WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/5/2025

Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.

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Christopher Inks
Jul 06, 2025
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The Market Breakdown
The Market Breakdown
WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/5/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #9 — Saturday, July 5, 2025



Macro snapshot

June’s payroll report showed the U.S. adding 147K jobs (vs. ~120K forecast), with a drop in unemployment to 4.1%, driven largely by government and healthcare hiring while private payrolls showed more modest gains. Wage growth slowed to about +3.7% y/y, and average hourly earnings rose just +0.2% m/m. Market reaction: equities rallied, yields jumped (10‑yr spiked to mid-4.3%), and the dollar strengthened. Futures are now discounting rate cuts later in 2025, likely September or beyond, not July.

At week’s close: VIX ~16.4, down slightly, still in a low-volatility regime. DXY sits near 96.9, having rallied post‑NFP. 10-yr yield finished around 4.30%. And BTC perp funding remains flat, reflecting neutral leverage in crypto.

Risk tone: Hotter NFP, firm dollar, and higher yields trim off upside from risk assets. Expect subdued risk appetite ahead of Wednesday’s Fed Minutes and July 15th’s CPI.

Catalysts in view

  • Wed 9 Jul: FOMC Minutes • 14:00 EST – Look for Fed’s guidance tone, especially around Fed-Speak on timing of cuts.

  • Thu 10 Jul: Jobless Claims + PPI – Early week labor flow & producer inflation updates.

  • Thu 10 Jul: Delta Air Lines (DAL) Q2 – Key indicator for travel demand summer cycle.

  • Thu 10 Jul: Samsung Preliminary Q2 – Semi-cap demand proxy relevant for semiconductor-linked plays.

  • Fri 11 Jul: Conagra (CAG) Q4 – Commodity margin read into packaged-food inflation and consumer sentiment.

  • Mon 14 Jul: PepsiCo (PEP) Q2 – Soft goods consumption check ahead of broader macro data.

  • Wed 15 Jul: CPI (Jun) • 08:30 EST – A core beat could rattle fixed income and pause equity momentum.


Risk Gauge (today vs. last week)

Volatility remains controlled while macro divergence grows.

  • VIX ~16.4, modest down from last week

  • DXY ~96.9, up ~0.6 from last week

  • 10‑yr UST ~4.30%, up ~10‑15 bp

  • BTC funding flat, showing no bias


Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)

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