WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/5/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #9 — Saturday, July 5, 2025
Macro snapshot
June’s payroll report showed the U.S. adding 147K jobs (vs. ~120K forecast), with a drop in unemployment to 4.1%, driven largely by government and healthcare hiring while private payrolls showed more modest gains. Wage growth slowed to about +3.7% y/y, and average hourly earnings rose just +0.2% m/m. Market reaction: equities rallied, yields jumped (10‑yr spiked to mid-4.3%), and the dollar strengthened. Futures are now discounting rate cuts later in 2025, likely September or beyond, not July.
At week’s close: VIX ~16.4, down slightly, still in a low-volatility regime. DXY sits near 96.9, having rallied post‑NFP. 10-yr yield finished around 4.30%. And BTC perp funding remains flat, reflecting neutral leverage in crypto.
Risk tone: Hotter NFP, firm dollar, and higher yields trim off upside from risk assets. Expect subdued risk appetite ahead of Wednesday’s Fed Minutes and July 15th’s CPI.
Catalysts in view
Wed 9 Jul: FOMC Minutes • 14:00 EST – Look for Fed’s guidance tone, especially around Fed-Speak on timing of cuts.
Thu 10 Jul: Jobless Claims + PPI – Early week labor flow & producer inflation updates.
Thu 10 Jul: Delta Air Lines (DAL) Q2 – Key indicator for travel demand summer cycle.
Thu 10 Jul: Samsung Preliminary Q2 – Semi-cap demand proxy relevant for semiconductor-linked plays.
Fri 11 Jul: Conagra (CAG) Q4 – Commodity margin read into packaged-food inflation and consumer sentiment.
Mon 14 Jul: PepsiCo (PEP) Q2 – Soft goods consumption check ahead of broader macro data.
Wed 15 Jul: CPI (Jun) • 08:30 EST – A core beat could rattle fixed income and pause equity momentum.
Risk Gauge (today vs. last week)
Volatility remains controlled while macro divergence grows.
VIX ~16.4, modest down from last week
DXY ~96.9, up ~0.6 from last week
10‑yr UST ~4.30%, up ~10‑15 bp
BTC funding flat, showing no bias
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)