WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/26/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #11 — Saturday, July 26, 2025
Macro snapshot
Durable Goods Orders (June) declined 9.3% to $311.85B, the sharpest drop in five years, largely due to a 22.4% fall in aircraft orders. However, core orders (excluding transportation) still rose modestly (~+0.2% m/m).
Existing Home Sales slipped 2.7% to 3.93M (annualized), hitting a nine-month low amid mortgage rates near 6.8%.
Housing drag points to weakening consumer and construction activity; Fed remains cautious and first rate cut is still being priced for September/October.
BTC perpetual funding remains neutral at ~0.01% every 8 hours, indicating balanced long/short positioning across futures markets.
Catalysts in view
Tue Jul 29 – Preliminary Markit PMIs for July (Manufacturing & Services)
Wed Jul 30 – Advance Q2 GDP announcement at 8:30 AM ET; Chicago PMI follows
Thu Jul 31 – Core PCE (June) out at 8:30 AM ET
Fri Aug 1 – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment for July released at 8:30 AM ET
crossover days – late-week earnings from major tech: Meta & Microsoft (Wed), Apple & Amazon (Thu) — with implications for AI capex and sentiment
Fri Aug 1 – Trump tariff deadline deadline for new trade actions
Mon Aug 4 – ISM Manufacturing PMI release
Tue Aug 5 – ISM Services PMI
Wed Aug 6 – JOLTS Job Openings (July), 10:00 AM ET
These events may shape bond yields, equity momentum, and Fed expectations heading into early August.
Risk Gauge (today vs. last week)
Volatility remains subdued, but yields and the dollar are holding firm into a high-stakes data week.
VIX: 14.93
DXY: 97.873
10‑yr UST: 4.386%
BTC Funding: Neutral (~+0.01%)
Risk appetite is stable but reserved. The drop in VIX suggests short-term complacency, though sticky yields and dollar strength hint at underlying macro tension. Watch for directional pressure post-GDP and Core PCE.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)