WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/25/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #62 — Saturday, July 25, 2026
HIMS hit stop loss in profit at 29.90.
Macro snapshot
The market spent the week repricing expectations. SPY closes at 738.93. NDX slides to 28,128. QQQ finishes at 684.23. Small caps ease to 2,930. Bitcoin remains resilient at 64,441 while ETH improves slightly to 1,877. Oil jumps sharply to 91.47. The 10-year yield climbs to 4.681%. DXY strengthens further to 101.47. VIX holds near 18.58 while MOVE rises to 76.82.
But this was valuation compression, not a panic-driven selloff. Higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and a renewed rally in crude oil combined to tighten financial conditions throughout the week. Growth stocks, which had led the first-half advance, absorbed most of the pressure as investors reassessed valuation multiples in a higher-rate environment.
The bond market continues to tell the story. The 10-year Treasury has now pushed toward 4.7%, while MOVE has climbed back above 75. Bond volatility remains orderly compared to the spring, but it’s no longer falling. Markets are beginning to price a higher-for-longer rate environment again.
Interestingly, crypto remained relatively stable. Bitcoin held the mid-$60,000 area despite equity weakness, while Ethereum continued recovering from its June lows. Although TOTAL3 slipped to 662B, digital assets largely avoided the heavy liquidation seen earlier in the summer. That suggests the forced selling phase has likely passed, even if fresh speculative capital has yet to return.
The takeaway: the primary bull trend remains intact, but the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to higher yields. Leadership is narrowing, valuations are being tested, and macro conditions matter again.
Catalysts in View
The coming week could prove to be one of the most important of the summer.
• FOMC Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve returns to center stage. While no major policy surprise is expected, markets will closely analyze the statement and Chair Powell’s language for any shift in the outlook on inflation, labor, and future rate cuts.
• Big Tech Earnings Continue
Several of the largest technology companies report this week. With the Nasdaq still carrying premium valuations, forward guidance will likely matter more than reported earnings.
• Core PCE Inflation
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge arrives later in the week. Combined with the FOMC meeting, this report has the potential to reshape interest rate expectations heading into August.
• Employment Data (JOLTS and Jobless Claims)
Labor market strength remains the foundation of the soft-landing narrative. Any meaningful signs of deterioration would quickly change market sentiment.
• Treasury Market Reaction
The 10-year yield has quietly become the market’s most important chart. Whether yields stabilize below 4.7% or continue climbing will likely determine whether equities can regain momentum.
Next week brings the rare combination of monetary policy, inflation data, earnings, and labor reports. Expect volatility to increase.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 18.58 remains below historical stress levels, but MOVE at 76.82 shows bond volatility has reaccelerated. The Treasury market remains the primary source of macro risk.
Rates
US10Y at 4.681% is approaching levels that historically pressure equity valuations. Markets have remained resilient, but the margin for error continues shrinking.
Dollar
DXY at 101.47 has strengthened steadily over the past two weeks. Continued dollar appreciation would tighten global liquidity and weigh on commodities and multinational earnings.
Equities
SPY at 738 remains comfortably above long-term trend support despite this week’s pullback. The Nasdaq continues consolidating after an exceptional first half, while small caps remain near recent highs, suggesting broader participation has not completely broken down.
Crypto
BTC at 64,441 continues holding its recovery. ETH at 1,877 has quietly improved, but TOTAL3 at 662B confirms that broader crypto participation remains muted. BTC dominance at 59.25 reflects continued preference for larger-cap digital assets.
Commodities
Gold at 4,052 and silver at 58.18 remain under pressure. Oil at 91.47 deserves renewed attention after reclaiming the $90 level, as sustained strength could complicate the inflation outlook.
Overall Risk Posture
Neutral, with an upward bias toward caution.
The market is no longer trading in an environment of falling yields and easing financial conditions. Higher rates, firmer energy prices, and a stronger dollar are beginning to challenge valuations.
The trend remains constructive, but next week’s combination of the FOMC meeting, Big Tech earnings, and Core PCE inflation has the potential to determine whether this pullback becomes a buying opportunity or the beginning of a deeper correction.
