WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/19/2025

Jul 20, 2025

∙ Paid

Paid subscribers only · Issue #10 — Saturday, July 19, 2025

DXY closed at 98.462, up ~1% from ~97.4 last Friday
VIX finished the week at 16.41, essentially flat
10‑yr UST Yield ended Friday around 4.42%, after rising ~25 bp
BTC perp funding remains neutral (~0.01%), with balanced long-short positioning

Bottom line: Inflation/data remain mixed; markets are cautious with yields and USD elevated, sending a neutral to slightly risk-off tone.

Catalysts in view

Mon, Jul 21 – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: July reading
Tue, Jul 22 – JOLTS Job Openings (Aug 8:00 ET) & FHFA Home Price Index (9:00 ET)
Wed, Jul 23 – Existing Home Sales (10:00 ET) & Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Thu, Jul 24 – Building Permits (Jun, 8:30 ET) & Conference Board Leading Index
Fri, Jul 25 – Durable Goods Orders (Jul, 8:30 ET)
Mon, Jul 28 – GDP Advance (Q2) (8:30 ET)
Tue, Jul 29 – Markit PMIs (manu & servicing preliminary)
Wed, Jul 30 – Core PCE (Jun) & Chicago PMI, plus additional Fed Signaling
Thu, Jul 31 – FOMC Minutes (14:00 ET)
Fri, Aug 1 – Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment (July, 8:30 ET)

Volatility remains controlled while macro divergence grows.

Positioning remains cautious. Heightened yields and USD pressure restrict risk appetite.

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)

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