WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/18/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #61 — Saturday, July 18, 2026
Macro snapshot
The market finally took a breath. SPY closes at 743.29. NDX pulls back to 28,592. QQQ finishes at 695.33. Small caps ease slightly to 2,962. Bitcoin climbs to 64,743 while ETH rebounds to 1,861. Oil reverses sharply higher to 82.74. The 10-year yield remains elevated at 4.549%. DXY holds firm at 100.75. VIX rises to 18.77 while MOVE edges higher to 70.88.
This wasn’t a broad risk-off event, but it was a rotation. After weeks of relentless leadership from large-cap technology, investors finally took profits. The Nasdaq gave back ground, but the broader market held together remarkably well. Small caps remained near recent highs, suggesting breadth hasn’t completely broken down.
The bigger story was underneath the surface. Oil snapped back above $80 after spending weeks below that level, reintroducing an inflation variable that had largely disappeared. Treasury yields remained stubbornly above 4.5%, and bond volatility continued creeping higher. Those aren’t panic signals, but they do represent tighter financial conditions than markets enjoyed just a few weeks ago.
Crypto quietly outperformed. Bitcoin advanced while equities softened, and Ethereum staged its strongest recovery in weeks. Even though TOTAL3 slipped to 667B, the resilience in the majors suggests forced liquidation has largely run its course. Digital assets are no longer leading the downside.
The takeaway: the primary trend remains constructive, but leadership is broadening and the easy part of the rally appears to be behind us. Markets are becoming more selective as earnings season accelerates.
Catalysts in View
Next week shifts from anticipation to execution as earnings season expands.
• Big Tech Earnings Continue
After the banks set the tone, attention turns toward major technology companies. With the Nasdaq still carrying premium valuations, forward guidance will matter more than headline earnings beats.
• PMI Data (Manufacturing and Services)
The first broad read on July business activity will help determine whether economic momentum remains intact heading into the second half of the year.
• Housing Data (Existing Home Sales)
Housing continues to test the economy’s ability to absorb mortgage rates near multi-year highs. Markets will look for signs of resilience rather than acceleration.
• Treasury Market and Yield Behavior
The 10-year remains pinned near 4.55%. If yields continue climbing while earnings disappoint, equity multiples could come under pressure. Stable yields would give the market room to digest recent gains.
• Crypto Participation
Bitcoin has held up well despite the equity pullback. The next test is whether broader participation returns. A recovery in TOTAL3 would signal improving confidence across digital assets rather than continued concentration in Bitcoin alone.
Next week is about confirmation. Earnings now have to justify valuations that were built on expectations during the first half of the year.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 18.77 has moved higher but remains well below panic territory. MOVE at 70.88 continues to reflect a Treasury market that is stable, though less comfortable than earlier this month.
Rates
US10Y at 4.549% remains the market’s primary macro pressure point. Stocks have absorbed higher yields surprisingly well, but further upside in rates would become increasingly difficult to ignore.
Dollar
DXY at 100.75 remains firm. A stronger dollar continues to tighten global liquidity and creates a modest headwind for commodities and multinational earnings.
Equities
SPY at 743 remains firmly within its long-term uptrend despite this week’s pullback. NDX at 28,592 reflects profit-taking rather than structural deterioration. Small caps at 2,962 continue supporting the broader market through healthy participation.
Crypto
BTC at 64,743 continues building a constructive base. ETH at 1,861 has improved materially from June lows. TOTAL3 at 667B remains subdued, while BTC dominance at 59.28 shows capital is still favoring quality over speculation.
Commodities
Gold at 4,018 and silver at 55.91 continue trending lower. Oil at 82.74 deserves attention after reclaiming the $80 level, as sustained strength could begin feeding back into inflation expectations.
Overall Risk Posture
Constructive, but more selective. The market is no longer being carried by expanding valuations alone. Rising yields, firmer energy prices, and the start of earnings season mean fundamentals are beginning to matter again.
As long as earnings continue validating expectations and bond volatility remains contained, the broader trend remains intact. The second half of the year, however, is likely to reward selectivity more than simple index exposure.
