WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/12/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #9 — Saturday, July 5, 2025
Macro snapshot
This week was light on major macro events, but some key signals emerged:
Initial Jobless Claims fell to 227K (week ending July 5), down 5K from 232K and reaching a nearly two-month low-suggesting continued labor resilience. FOMC Minutes (Wed) conveyed that the Fed is leaning toward two cuts but remains data-dependent, with no immediate shift expected. Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat Q2 expectations, citing strong summer travel demand. Samsung's Q2 preliminary results showed stronger-than-expected resilience, signaling stabilization in semiconductor demand.
Catalysts in view
Mon 14 Jul: PepsiCo (PEP) Q2 – Soft goods consumption check ahead of broader macro data.
Wed 16 Jul: CPI (Jun) • 08:30 EST – A core beat could rattle fixed income and pause equity momentum.
Thu 17 Jul: Jobless Claims, Taiwan Semi (TWM) Q2
Fri 18 Jul: U. of Mich. Sentiment (July prelim)
Risk Gauge (today vs. last week)
Volatility remains controlled while macro divergence grows.
VIX ~16.4, no real change from last week
DXY 97.868, up ~1 from last week
10‑yr UST 4.417%
BTC funding flat, showing no bias
Macro is diverging: growth softening in tech + services while inflation and labor stay firm. Expect positional chop, not momentum
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)