WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 7/11/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #60 — Saturday, July 12, 2026
CPB stopped out in profit at 21.90.
Macro snapshot
The market kept climbing, but the foundation shifted. SPY closes at 754.95. NDX pushes to 29,825. QQQ finishes at 725.51. Small caps ease slightly to 2,978. Bitcoin stabilizes at 63,937 while ETH recovers to 1,798. Gold extends lower to 4,120 and silver falls to 59.83. Oil rebounds modestly to 72.05. The 10-year yield climbs to 4.561%. DXY strengthens to 100.97. VIX slips to 15.03 while MOVE edges higher to 69.55.
At first glance, it looks like another quiet week. Under the surface, it wasn’t. Equities continued pushing toward new highs despite rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar, and a modest pickup in bond volatility. Normally, that combination tightens financial conditions enough to slow the advance. Instead, buyers continued stepping in, particularly across large-cap growth. That’s a sign the market is placing more weight on earnings expectations than on macro headwinds.
The divergence remains crypto. Bitcoin has stabilized around the mid-$60,000s, but TOTAL3 slipped back to 675B, suggesting liquidity continues to favor traditional equities over speculative digital assets. Capital is returning selectively, not broadly.
Meanwhile, precious metals continue unwinding their spring rally while oil remains well below the triple-digit levels that dominated earlier this year. The collapse in energy prices continues to provide a meaningful offset to otherwise restrictive financial conditions.
The takeaway: equities continue displaying remarkable resilience. Higher yields and a stronger dollar haven’t been enough to derail the trend, but they are narrowing the margin for error as earnings season begins.
Catalysts in View
Next week shifts squarely toward earnings and inflation expectations.
• Bank Earnings Kick Off
The first wave of major financial institutions begins reporting. Markets will focus less on backward-looking results and more on guidance for loan demand, credit quality, and consumer health. Earnings season officially takes center stage.
• CPI Inflation Data
Inflation remains the week’s most important macro release. With yields already back above 4.5%, another upside surprise could pressure multiples. A softer print would reinforce the soft-landing narrative and support equities.
• Retail Sales
Consumer spending remains the backbone of economic growth. Markets will be looking for confirmation that household demand remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs.
• Fed Speakers
Following the latest inflation data, investors will closely watch any changes in Fed rhetoric regarding the timing of future policy adjustments.
• Treasury Market Reaction
The 10-year yield has quietly climbed back toward recent highs. The question is whether equities continue absorbing higher rates or whether yields finally begin weighing on valuations.
Next week marks the transition from a macro-driven market to an earnings-driven market. Guidance may matter more than the headlines.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 15.03 remains firmly inside a low-volatility regime. MOVE at 69.55 has risen modestly but still reflects an orderly Treasury market.
Rates
US10Y at 4.561% is approaching levels that historically create valuation pressure. So far, equities have largely ignored the move. That resilience will be tested if yields continue higher.
Dollar
DXY at 100.97 has regained strength. Continued dollar appreciation could become a headwind for commodities, multinational earnings, and crypto.
Equities
SPY at 754 continues its primary uptrend while NDX approaches another psychological milestone at 30,000. Small caps remain constructive despite modest consolidation, suggesting market breadth remains healthy.
Crypto
BTC at 63,937 continues stabilizing after June’s selloff. ETH at 1,798 is slowly recovering, but TOTAL3 at 675B confirms that broader crypto participation remains subdued. BTC dominance at 58.96 indicates capital continues favoring larger digital assets.
Commodities
Gold at 4,120 and silver at 59.83 remain under pressure. Oil at 72.05 has stabilized after its sharp decline, continuing to reduce inflation pressure without signaling economic stress.
Overall Risk Posture
Constructive. Volatility remains low, earnings season is beginning with equities near their highs, and lower energy prices continue supporting the broader macro backdrop. The challenge for the next several weeks is straightforward: markets have priced in a strong earnings season. Companies now need to deliver.
