The Market Breakdown

The Market Breakdown

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The Market Breakdown
The Market Breakdown
WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 6/28/2025

WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 6/28/2025

Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.

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Christopher Inks
Jun 29, 2025
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The Market Breakdown
The Market Breakdown
WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 6/28/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #8 — Saturday, June 28, 2025


Editorial Note:

I apologize for the late issue today. As I mentioned in my note on substack earlier tonight, I noticed that the software I was using to track all the trades wasn’t working correctly. So I spent the past few hours verifying and validating all posted setups I’ve posted. The rolling position status below is now current and correct. I have also broken down closed trades into those that hit the initial stop, those that hit the stop once it was moved to break even which we do when price moves +10% in our favor (so no loss), and those that hit the target bands, as well as those that timed out (didn’t hit the entry band within 7 days of posting the setup). So all information is now, and will remain going forward, current and correct. As it stands, based on the current closed trades, we are batting ~40% but, importantly, we are in profit because our wins are much larger than our losses. Additionally, we have 21 trades currently in profit with multiples of those just about to hit their targets.


Macro snapshot

The May personal-income report showed core PCE at 2.7% y/y and headline PCE at 2.3% y/y with real consumer spending down 0.1%; the mix keeps the Fed on watch, but the market now prices just one 2025 cut and a first move no earlier than September. Yields slipped as duration buyers chased safety after the data: the 10-year closed 4.26%, a 12 bp weekly drop. Dollar softness continued with DXY 97.25, its lowest weekly close since early April. Volatility bled out after Micron’s upbeat AI-HBM report, pushing VIX to 16.6. Crypto funding normalized; Binance BTC perpetuals printed +0.001%, well below last week’s +0.008%.

Risk tone: lower yields, softer dollar, and sub-17 vol set the stage for modest risk-on flows into quarter-end, but positioning is light ahead of the July 1–3 data cluster.

Catalysts in view

  • Mon 30 Jun: Kaspa DAGKnight test-epoch checkpoint (KAS) – block TBA

  • Tue 1 Jul: JOLTS May, 10:00 EST

  • Thu 3 Jul: Jobless claims, ISM-Svcs, half-day equity session

  • Fri 4 Jul: US markets closed (Independence Day)

  • Wed 9 Jul: FOMC minutes, 14:00 EST

  • Thu 10 Jul: Delta Air Lines (DAL) Q2 results, first major demand read for travel season

  • Fri 11 Jul: Conagra (CAG) FY-Q4 print, packaged-food margin check


Risk Gauge (today vs. last week)

  • VIX 16.6 (-4.0)

  • DXY 97.25 (-2.15)

  • 10-yr 4.26% (-12 bp)

  • BTC funding +0.001% (-0.007)

Lower vol + weaker USD = tail-wind for momentum longs, but yields still sticky; keep stops tight.


Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)

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