WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 6/13/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #56 — Saturday, June 13, 2026
Macro snapshot
This week was about resilience. One week ago, crypto was in freefall, volatility was rising, and financial conditions were tightening. This week, markets reversed the script.
SPY closes at 741.75. NDX rebounds to 29,635. QQQ finishes at 721.34. Small caps recover to 2,943. Bitcoin climbs back to 64,312 while ETH rebounds to 1,679. Oil falls sharply to 85.18. The 10-year yield eases to 4.483%. DXY slips back below 100 at 99.81. VIX falls to 17.68 and MOVE declines to 69.36.
The market’s ability to absorb bad news mattered more than the bad news itself.
Oil collapsed nearly 7%. Bond volatility cooled. The dollar weakened. Those shifts loosened financial conditions and gave risk assets room to recover from the previous week’s liquidation.
Then came Friday’s headline: SpaceX finally debuted as a public company. The IPO immediately became the dominant conversation across growth, technology, aerospace, and retail trading circles. Beyond the stock itself, the offering created a fresh narrative around innovation, capital formation, and risk appetite. Markets don’t just move on liquidity, they move on stories and SpaceX delivered a new one.
At the same time, crypto’s recovery remains incomplete. Bitcoin recovered, but TOTAL3 sits at 684B, well below the levels seen before the June selloff. That suggests investors are selectively embracing risk rather than indiscriminately chasing it.
The takeaway: the market successfully absorbed a tightening scare, welcomed one of the largest and most anticipated IPOs in modern history, and enters next week with improving financial conditions. The trend remains constructive, but confidence has not fully returned to the speculative corners of the market.
Catalysts in view
Next week shifts away from inflation and back toward growth, housing, and policy expectations.
• Retail Sales
The consumer remains the backbone of the soft-landing narrative. Markets will be looking for evidence that spending remains resilient despite elevated rates.
• Housing Data (Starts and Permits)
Housing remains one of the most rate-sensitive areas of the economy. With yields still near 4.5%, these reports will offer insight into how restrictive conditions really are.
• Jobless Claims
Labor remains the market’s anchor. Continued stability supports risk assets. Unexpected weakness would quickly revive growth concerns.
• Fed Speakers
Following this week’s inflation data, markets will scrutinize every comment regarding policy, cuts, and financial conditions.
• Treasury Auctions and Yield Stability
The 10-year remains near levels that matter. If yields continue drifting lower, equities gain additional support. If rates reverse higher, last week’s relief rally could stall quickly.
Next week is about confirming whether improving financial conditions can translate into improving economic confidence.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 17.68 signals a return to a relatively calm environment. MOVE at 69.36 confirms bond volatility has normalized considerably from recent highs.Rates
US10Y at 4.483% remains elevated but has backed away from the most concerning levels. Continued stability here would support equities and crypto.Dollar
DXY at 99.81 falling back below 100 is constructive for global liquidity and risk assets.Equities
SPY at 741 remains within striking distance of recent highs. NDX at 29,635 has regained momentum. Small caps at 2,943 show improving breadth after last week’s weakness.Crypto
BTC at 64,312 continues repairing technical damage. ETH at 1,679 remains well below prior highs. TOTAL3 at 684B reflects improving liquidity, but participation remains below May levels. BTC dominance at 59.26 shows capital is still favoring larger digital assets.Commodities
Gold at 4,218 continues to weaken. Silver at 68.00 has stabilized. Oil at 85.18 is the most important improvement on the board and reduces inflation pressure heading into the second half of June.
Overall Risk Posture
Constructive, but rebuilding.The market successfully stabilized after last week’s shock. Volatility is lower, yields are calmer, and energy prices are falling.
The next step is proving that improved financial conditions can persist long enough for growth expectations to recover. The trend is no longer under immediate pressure, but confidence hasn’t fully returned.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
