WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 5/2/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #50 — Saturday, May 2, 2026
REZ/USDT hit stop in profit. BTC/USDT stop moved up further into profit at 72544.16. DOGE/USDT stop moved into profit at 0.10080.
Macro snapshot
This week confirmed it. The market isn’t just strong. It’s trending with conviction.
SPY closes at 720.65. NDX pushes higher to 27,710. QQQ at 674.15. Small caps extend to 2,812. Bitcoin rallies further to 78,562 while ETH holds 2,313. Gold continues lower to 4,614 while silver trades 75.30. Oil rebounds to 104.40. The 10-year yield remains stable at 4.37%. DXY sits near 98.21. VIX compresses further to 16.99. MOVE holds steady around 70.41.
There’s no ambiguity now.
Volatility is low. Rates are stable. The dollar is contained. That combination is fueling sustained expansion across risk assets.
Equities continue to grind higher with broad participation. This is not just tech anymore. Small caps are confirming, which matters. That removes one of the last structural doubts from the rally.
Crypto remains strong, but with a shift. BTC dominance rising to 61 signals capital concentrating into majors rather than broad speculation. TOTAL3 holding around 726B shows liquidity is present, but selective.
Meanwhile gold continues to fade. That’s capital leaving defensive hedges and rotating into growth.
The takeaway: this is a mature expansion phase. Not early. Not fragile. But increasingly dependent on continued stability.
Catalysts in view
Next week is heavy. Real data. Real validation.
• CPI Inflation Data
This is the key macro driver. With oil back above 100 and markets extended, inflation matters again. A hot print would pressure yields and test the rally. A soft print allows continuation.
• Initial Jobless Claims
Labor remains stable, but markets will react faster now to any cracks. Claims trending higher would shift sentiment quickly.
• Fed Speakers
With financial conditions clearly loose again, policymakers may lean more hawkish in tone. Watch for attempts to re-anchor expectations.
• Treasury Auctions / Yield Reaction
With the 10-year holding around 4.3%, demand at these levels is critical. Strong auctions keep rates stable. Weak demand pushes yields higher and pressures equities.
• Energy Markets
Oil back above 104 reintroduces inflation pressure. Continued strength feeds directly into CPI expectations.
Next week isn‘t about starting a move. It’s about whether this one survives real data.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 16.99 confirms a low-volatility regime. MOVE at 70.41 shows stability in rates. This environment supports trend continuation, but also breeds complacency.Rates
US10Y at 4.37% is stable but elevated. As long as yields remain contained, equities can continue higher. A break above 4.50% would change that quickly.Dollar
DXY at 98.21 remains neutral to slightly weak. That supports global liquidity and risk assets.Equities
SPY at 720 confirms continued trend strength. NDX at 27,710 remains the leadership engine. Small caps at 2,812 confirm broad participation.Crypto
BTC at 78,562 continues higher with strength. ETH holding above 2,300 is stable but not leading. TOTAL3 at 726B shows selective liquidity. BTC dominance at 61 confirms capital concentration.Commodities
Gold at 4,614 continues to fade, signaling reduced hedge demand. Silver stabilizing. Oil at 104.40 remains the key inflation variable.Overall Risk Posture
Constructive, but extended.This is a strong trend environment. But the higher it goes, the more dependent it becomes on stability in rates, inflation, and liquidity.
The risk isn’t immediate downside. It’s a shift in one of those pillars.
Stay disciplined. Trends don’t end when they’re weak. They end when they’re crowded.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
