WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 4/4/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #46 — Saturday, April 4, 2026
RENDER/USDT hit target at 1.885
LUNR (stop moved up into profit at 20.91) UFO (stop moved up into profit at 44.00)
Macro snapshot
This week was compression after stress, not yet relief.
SPY closes at 655.83. NDX rebounds to 24,045. QQQ at 584.98. Small caps recovered to 2,530. Bitcoin stabilized near 67,342 while ETH reclaimed 2,065. Gold bounced to 4,676 while silver sits at 73.01. Oil surged aggressively to 112.89. The 10-year yield eased slightly to 4.309%. DXY remains firm at 100.18. VIX dropped to 23.87. MOVE compressed sharply to 81.78.
The key shift this week is not price. It is volatility.
Bond volatility collapsed from extreme levels. Equity volatility followed. That allowed risk assets to breathe, even as underlying macro pressure remains.
But look closer.
Oil is now above 110. That’s active inflation pressure. Rates remain elevated above 4.30%. The dollar is still holding strength above 100.
So while equities bounced, the drivers of the prior selloff have not been resolved.
The takeaway: this is a volatility reset, not a regime change yet. Conditions improved, but the system is still tight.
Catalysts in view
Next week shifts focus back to inflation validation and market reaction.
• CPI Inflation Data
This is the primary catalyst. With oil now above 110, inflation expectations are rising again. A hot CPI print would validate the recent rate pressure and likely reverse this week’s volatility compression. A cooler print could extend the relief move.
• FOMC Minutes
Markets will dissect the Fed’s internal discussion following the last meeting. Focus will be on how concerned policymakers are about inflation persistence versus tightening financial conditions.
• Jobless Claims
Labor remains the final pillar of stability. Any deterioration would shift the narrative quickly toward growth risk.
• Treasury Auctions / Rate Stability
With MOVE now back near 80, the bond market has stabilized but not normalized. Auction demand will determine whether yields hold near 4.30% or begin another leg higher.
• Energy Markets
Oil at 112 is now the dominant macro force. Continued upside pressures inflation expectations. Any sharp reversal would ease pressure across all asset classes.
Next week determines whether this week’s bounce extends or fails under renewed inflation pressure.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 23.87 is a meaningful decline from last week but still elevated. MOVE at 81.78 shows bond volatility has compressed but remains above normal. Stability has improved, but fragility remains.Rates
US10Y at 4.309% is slightly off highs but still restrictive. A move back toward 4.40% would pressure equities again. A sustained move below 4.10% would support further upside.Dollar
DXY at 100.18 remains firm. Continued strength keeps global liquidity tight. A breakdown below 100 would be supportive for risk.Equities
SPY at 655 reclaimed some lost ground but remains below prior breakdown levels. NDX back above 24K is constructive but not yet trend reversal. Small caps recovering to 2,530 suggests stabilization, not strength.Crypto
BTC at 67,342 remains stable. ETH back above 2,000 restores short-term strength. TOTAL3 at 699B shows alt liquidity stabilizing but not expanding aggressively.Commodities
Gold at 4,676 remains elevated. Silver at 73.01 stabilizing. Oil at 112.89 is the most important macro variable and continues to drive inflation expectations.
Overall Risk Posture:
Neutral to slightly defensive.Volatility compressed, but the underlying pressure from rates, dollar, and energy remains intact.
This is a tactical environment for now. The opportunity is in reacting to data, not predicting it.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
