WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 4/25/2026
Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.
WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #49 — Saturday, April 25, 2026
RDW hit stop in profit.
Macro snapshot
This week was more than just continuation. It was acceleration.
SPY closes at 713.94. NDX pushes higher to 27,303. QQQ at 663.88. Small caps extend to 2,787. Bitcoin rallies to 77,561 while ETH holds 2,317. Gold drifts lower to 4,708 while silver trades 75.65. Oil stabilizes near 97.54. The 10-year yield holds firm at 4.306%. DXY continues to weaken to 98.51. VIX compresses further to 18.71. MOVE stabilizes at 66.97.
The trend is clean now.
Volatility is compressed. The dollar is weakening. Oil is no longer pressing higher. Rates are elevated but stable.
That combination is exactly what sustained risk-on environments require.
Equities didn’t just grind. They expanded again, with tech leading and small caps confirming. There’s no longer divergence. Participation is broad.
Crypto followed through with strength. BTC pushing toward 78K while TOTAL3 expands to 731B shows liquidity is not just present, it’s spreading. Dominance rising toward 60.5 suggests leadership remains in majors, but the entire complex is being pulled higher.
Meanwhile gold drifting lower confirms capital rotation away from defensive positioning and into risk.
The takeaway: this is a fully established expansion phase supported by stable rates, falling volatility, and improving liquidity conditions.
Catalysts in view
Next week shifts from expansion to validation.
• FOMC Meeting and Rate Decision
This is the central event. With markets already in expansion mode, the Fed’s tone matters more than the decision itself. Any indication that policy will remain restrictive longer than expected could challenge the rally.
• Powell Press Conference
Markets will listen for any concern about financial conditions loosening too quickly. If Powell pushes back, expect volatility to return.
• Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
Labor strength remains the backbone of the soft-landing narrative. Strong data supports continuation. Weakness introduces risk at elevated valuations.
• ISM Manufacturing
Growth confirmation is required at these levels. Expansion readings reinforce the current pricing. Contraction would create tension between data and market behavior.
• Treasury Auctions / Rate Stability
With the 10-year holding around 4.30%, auction demand becomes critical. Stable demand keeps the rally intact. Weak demand pushes yields higher and pressures multiples.
Next week is not about initiating a move. It’s about whether the current one holds under scrutiny.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 18.71 signals a return to low-volatility conditions. MOVE at 66.97 confirms stability in the bond market. This combination supports continued trend behavior.Rates
US10Y at 4.306% remains elevated but stable. As long as yields remain contained, equities can continue higher. A breakout above 4.40% would reintroduce pressure.Dollar
DXY at 98.51 continues to weaken. This is a clear tailwind for global liquidity and risk assets.Equities
SPY at 713 confirms trend continuation. NDX at 27,303 shows strong momentum leadership. Small caps at 2,787 confirm broad participation.Crypto
BTC at 77,561 continues higher with strength. ETH holding above 2,300 is constructive. TOTAL3 at 731B shows expanding liquidity. Dominance near 60.5 suggests leadership remains concentrated but not restrictive.Commodities
Gold at 4,708 drifting lower reflects reduced hedge demand. Silver stabilizing near 75. Oil at 97.54 is no longer a direct inflation threat at current levels.Overall Risk Posture
Constructive.Liquidity is expanding. Volatility is low. Rates are stable.
This is the environment where trends extend until something breaks. The risk now is not downside shock. It is complacency.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
