WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 4/18/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #48 — Saturday, April 18, 2026
LUNR (stop moved up further into profit at 22.35). UFO (stop moved up further into profit at 49.75). RKLB (stop moved up into profit at 73.00). AVGO (stop moved up further into profit at 350).
Macro snapshot
This week wasn’t relief anymore. It was expansion.
SPY closes at 710.14. NDX surges to 26,672. QQQ at 648.85. Small caps rip higher to 2,776. Bitcoin breaks out to 75,612 while ETH pushes to 2,347. Gold pulls back to 4,837 while silver rallies to 80.77. Oil drops sharply to 86.52. The 10-year yield stabilizes at 4.248%. DXY weakens further to 98.22. VIX collapses to 17.48. MOVE compresses to 65.70.
Everything flipped.
Oil broke lower. The dollar weakened. Volatility compressed across both equities and bonds. That combination unlocked aggressive risk-on behavior across all asset classes.
Equities expanded. The Nasdaq reclaimed leadership decisively, pushing into new momentum highs. Small caps confirmed the move, signaling broader participation.
Crypto followed through. BTC breaking above 75K with TOTAL3 pushing toward 730B shows expanding liquidity and risk appetite. Dominance holding near 59.9 suggests strength led by majors, but not exclusively.
Gold pulling back while equities and crypto rally signals capital rotating out of defensive hedges and into growth.
The takeaway: the market has shifted from stabilization into expansion, driven by easing financial conditions and falling energy pressure.
Catalysts in view
Next week pivots back to growth validation and earnings flow.
• PMI Data (Manufacturing and Services)
These will be key reads on real-time economic activity. With markets pricing expansion, any weakness would challenge the move quickly.
• Durable Goods Orders
Capex and industrial demand signal. Strong prints reinforce growth. Weak prints would create divergence between market pricing and economic reality.
• Housing Data (Existing Home Sales)
With rates still above 4.2%, housing remains sensitive. Stability here supports the soft-landing narrative.
• Ongoing Earnings Flow
As earnings season builds, forward guidance becomes critical. Markets at these levels require confirmation of growth, not just survival.
• Fed Speakers
With conditions loosening rapidly, policymakers may attempt to re-anchor expectations, particularly if financial conditions ease too quickly.
Next week is about confirmation. The market has priced expansion. Now it needs the data to agree.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 17.48 signals a return to low-volatility regime. MOVE at 65.70 confirms bond market stability. This combination supports trend continuation.Rates
US10Y at 4.248% is stable. As long as yields remain contained between 4.1%-4.3%, equities can continue higher. A break above 4.4% would reintroduce pressure.Dollar
DXY at 98.22 continuing lower is a tailwind for global liquidity and risk assets.Equities
SPY at 710 confirms a breakout. NDX at 26,672 shows strong momentum leadership. Small caps at 2,776 confirm broad participation.Crypto
BTC at 75,612 shows clear breakout behavior. ETH at 2,347 confirms strength. TOTAL3 at 728.91B indicates expanding alt liquidity. Dominance at 59.9 suggests strength remains broad but still anchored in majors.Commodities
Gold at 4,837 pulling back reflects reduced hedge demand. Silver at 80.77 remains strong. Oil at 86.52 breaking lower removes a major inflation pressure.Overall Risk Posture
Constructive.Financial conditions have eased meaningfully. Volatility has compressed. Liquidity is expanding.
This is the type of environment where trends persist. The risk is no longer immediate downside. It’s chasing too late without a plan.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
