WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 4/11/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #47 — Saturday, April 11, 2026
AMZN (stop moved up further into profit at 212.25). AVGO (stop moved up into profit at 340.50).
Macro snapshot
This week wasn’t just a bounce. It was a squeeze.
SPY closes at 668.94. NDX pushes back to 24,612. QQQ at 596.81. Small caps rebound to 2,571. Bitcoin rallies to 72,746 while ETH climbs to 2,154. Gold holds elevated at 4,982 while silver trades 78.44. Oil pulled back to 104.63. The 10-year yield eased to 4.214%. DXY softened to 99.12. VIX compressed sharply to 21.08. MOVE fell further to 72.36.
Everything that tightened last month loosened this week. Rates came down. The dollar weakened. Oil pulled back. Volatility compressed across both equities and bonds.
That combination unlocked risk. Equities pushed higher across the board, led by tech reclaiming momentum. Crypto participated aggressively, with BTC breaking higher and alt liquidity stabilizing as TOTAL3 pushes back above 715B while dominance sits near 59.6.
But here’s the nuance. None of the prior pressure fully disappeared. Rates are still above 4.2%. Oil is still above 100. The dollar is only marginally weaker.
The takeaway: this was a relief move driven by easing conditions, not a confirmed new expansion phase.
Catalysts in view
Next week shifts back to growth confirmation and policy interpretation.
• Retail Sales
This is the key consumer check. After the recent volatility cycle, markets need confirmation that spending remains intact. Strength supports the rebound. Weakness would quickly challenge it.
• Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization
A read on real economic activity. With manufacturing already under pressure, any weakness reinforces slowdown concerns.
• Housing Data (Starts and Permits)
Rates remain restrictive. Housing will show whether demand is stabilizing or continuing to erode under higher borrowing costs.
• Fed Speakers
With conditions easing again, policymakers may push back to prevent premature loosening. Tone will matter, especially around inflation persistence and financial conditions.
• Treasury Auctions / Rate Stability
MOVE back near 70 shows stability returning, but not normalization. Demand at current yield levels will determine whether the 10-year continues lower or stabilizes above 4.2%.
Next week is about validation. If growth holds, this rebound extends. If not, it stalls quickly.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 21.08 is a sharp improvement but still above low-volatility regimes. MOVE at 72.36 shows bond volatility has normalized relative to recent extremes, but remains elevated.Rates
US10Y at 4.214% has eased but remains restrictive. A continued move toward 4.0% supports equities. A reversal back toward 4.35% would pressure risk again.Dollar
DXY at 99.12 breaking back below 100 is constructive. Continued weakness supports global liquidity and risk assets.Equities
SPY at 668 reclaimed lost ground but remains below prior highs. NDX at 24,612 regains momentum but needs continuation to confirm trend. Small caps at 2,571 show improvement but remain fragile.Crypto
BTC at 72,746 shows strong relative strength. ETH at 2,154 confirms recovery. TOTAL3 above 715B suggests improving risk appetite within crypto, though dominance near 59.6 still reflects selective positioning.Commodities
Gold at 4,982 remains elevated. Silver at 78.44 recovering. Oil at 104.63 pulled back but remains a key inflation variable.
Overall Risk Posture:
Neutral.Conditions improved materially, but the system is not fully loose. This is a reactive environment where momentum can extend, but is still dependent on incoming data.
Stay flexible. The market is trading off conditions, not conviction.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
