WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 3/28/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #45 — Saturday, March 28, 2026
NBIS stop hit in profit at 108.15. NEAR/USDT stop hit in profit at 1.173.,
AHCO (stop moved up into profit at 11.05). FBYD (stop moved up into profit at 8.20)
Macro snapshot
This week was best described as pressure continuation.
SPY closes at 634.09. NDX at 23,132. QQQ at 562.58. Small caps marginally stabilized at 2,449 but remain weak. Bitcoin slipped to 66,387 while ETH sits just under 2K at 1,999. Gold held near 4,493 while silver bounced slightly to 69.74. Oil broke higher to 102.03. The 10-year yield climbed again to 4.428%. DXY remains firm at 100.19. VIX pushed higher to 31.05. MOVE expanded further to 111.95.
The trend is now undeniable.
Rates are rising. Oil is rising. Volatility is rising. The dollar is holding strength.
That combination is a full tightening regime.
Equities are responding accordingly. The S&P is now well below prior range structure. The Nasdaq continues to unwind. Any bid that appears is being sold into, not chased.
The key shift this week is energy. Oil above 100 is no longer a tail risk. It is active pressure feeding directly into inflation expectations and rate repricing.
The takeaway: this is no longer a transition environment. This is active stress driven by tightening financial conditions and energy-led inflation risk.
Catalysts in view
Next week shifts focus back to growth confirmation and labor.
• Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The most important data point of the week. With financial conditions tightening, labor strength is the last pillar supporting the soft-landing narrative. A strong print stabilizes risk. A weak print accelerates downside and recession pricing.
• ISM Manufacturing
Growth data now matters more than inflation in the short term. A contractionary print reinforces slowdown fears. A rebound could stabilize cyclicals and small caps.
• Jobless Claims
With volatility elevated, markets will react more aggressively to any sign of labor deterioration.
• Fed Speakers
Post-FOMC messaging continues. Markets will listen for any acknowledgment of tightening conditions or concern around financial stability.
• Energy Markets
Oil at 102 is now the dominant macro variable. Continued strength forces higher inflation expectations and keeps upward pressure on yields.
Next week is about whether growth holds while financial conditions tighten. If not, the repricing accelerates.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 31.05 confirms a full shift into high-volatility regime. MOVE at 111.95 signals extreme instability in rates. This level historically aligns with forced positioning and liquidity stress.Rates
US10Y at 4.428% continues higher with no sign of stabilization. A move toward 4.50% becomes increasingly likely if bond volatility remains elevated.Dollar
DXY at 100.19 remains firm. Sustained strength above 100 continues to tighten global liquidity and pressure risk assets.Equities
SPY at 634 confirms a clear breakdown. NDX at 23,132 shows continued tech unwinding. Small caps remain weak despite minor stabilization, signaling fragile growth expectations.Crypto
BTC at 66,387 is holding but drifting lower. ETH below 2K is a relative weakness signal. TOTAL3 at 704B shows shrinking alt liquidity.Commodities
Gold holding near 4,493 suggests some macro hedge demand remains. Silver stabilizing near 69.74 after sharp downside. Oil at 102 is the primary macro driver and inflation pressure point.
Overall Risk Posture:
High risk.Rates, energy, and volatility are all elevated simultaneously. That environment does not favor aggressive positioning.
This is a capital preservation regime until bond volatility compresses and energy stabilizes.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
