WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 3/14/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #43 — Saturday, March 14, 2026
NBIS stop moved up to 108.15.
Macro snapshot
This week the dollar and rates tightened the vise.
SPY closes at 662.29. NDX at 24,380. QQQ at 593.72. Small caps dropped to 2,480. Bitcoin rebounded sharply to 71,002 while ETH recovered to 2,089. Gold eased slightly to 5,018 while silver trades 80.58. Oil remains elevated at 98.83. The 10-year yield climbed again to 4.283%. DXY broke higher to 100.49. VIX cooled slightly but remains elevated at 27.19. MOVE surged further to 91.17.
The defining feature this week was financial conditions tightening from multiple directions.
Rates are climbing. The dollar is strengthening. Energy prices remain elevated. Bond volatility continues to expand.
Equities responded exactly how they usually do in that environment. The S&P slipped deeper below its recent range, the Nasdaq continued to bleed momentum, and small caps led the downside as growth expectations weakened.
Meanwhile crypto did something different. Bitcoin pushed above 71K even while risk assets struggled. That divergence reflects capital rotating toward perceived hard assets as macro uncertainty rises.
The takeaway: financial conditions are tightening faster than the equity market is adjusting to.
Catalysts in view
Next week centers on the most important macro event of the month.
FOMC Meeting and Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve will deliver its latest policy decision along with updated projections. Markets will focus less on the rate itself and more on the dot plot and forward guidance. Any shift toward fewer cuts or extended restrictive policy would reinforce the recent bond selloff.Powell Press Conference
Tone will matter as much as policy. Markets will look for clues on whether the Fed views the recent inflation and energy dynamics as temporary or structural.Retail Sales
Consumer strength remains the backbone of the soft-landing narrative. A strong print stabilizes risk assets. Weakness amplifies recession fears given tightening financial conditions.Housing Data (Starts and Permits)
With mortgage rates elevated again, housing activity will show whether the consumer is beginning to pull back meaningfully.Treasury Auction Demand
MOVE approaching 90 signals severe bond volatility. Strong auction demand could stabilize yields. Weak demand would push the 10-year toward the 4.4–4.5% zone quickly.
Next week is not about small catalysts. It’s about whether the Fed stabilizes markets or confirms the tightening regime.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 27.19 remains in elevated territory and signals defensive positioning. MOVE at 91.17 shows the real instability is in the bond market. As long as bond volatility remains elevated, equity rallies will struggle to hold.Rates
US10Y at 4.283% is approaching levels that historically pressure equity valuations. A push toward 4.40% would likely trigger additional downside in growth stocks.Dollar
DXY above 100 is a meaningful liquidity tightening signal. A sustained move higher would pressure global risk assets and emerging markets.Equities
SPY at 662 has lost the prior consolidation structure. NDX at 24,380 confirms momentum deterioration in tech. Small caps at 2,480 suggest markets are increasingly pricing slower growth.Crypto
BTC at 71,002 shows resilience and a potential macro hedge bid. ETH back above 2,000 restores some technical strength. TOTAL3 rising to 723B suggests selective risk returning inside crypto.Commodities
Gold remains elevated at 5,018 and continues to function as a macro hedge. Oil at 98.83 is the most important inflation variable and remains dangerously close to triple digits.Overall Risk Posture
Defensive but unstable.Rates, energy, and the dollar are tightening financial conditions simultaneously. Until bond volatility subsides, markets will remain highly reactive to macro signals rather than trending cleanly.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
