WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 2/7/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #38 — Saturday, February 7, 2026
MDLZ stop moved up to 56.55.
This week reminded markets how fast regimes can flip.
After last week’s cross-asset liquidation, risk snapped back sharply. Equities ripped higher, volatility collapsed, metals reasserted dominance, and crypto tried to stabilize but failed to reclaim lost ground. This was violent mean reversion driven by positioning relief.
The key question now isn’t whether buyers showed up.
It’s whether they’ll stay once the reflex is done.
Let’s break it down.
Macro snapshot
Equities staged a powerful rebound.
SPY (690.62), NDX (25,075.77), QQQ (609.65), and RUT (2,670.34) all surged higher this week, retracing a meaningful portion of last week’s drawdown. The move was broad, fast, and fueled by short covering and volatility compression rather than patient accumulation. Buyers were aggressive, but selective, and momentum slowed into the end of the week.
This was relief first, conviction second.
Crypto went through a full liquidation flush, then snapped back.
BTCUSD collapsed early in the week into the low ~60Ks, completing a forced de-risking leg after January structure failed. The selloff was fast and clearly mechanical. That flush was followed by a violent reflex rebound, with Bitcoin snapping back toward ~71K on Friday as shorts covered and dip buyers stepped in.
ETHUSD followed the same pattern, flushing aggressively before rebounding, but remains well below former structural levels. Alts were hit hardest and showed weaker rebounds: SOL, DOT, ATOM, and ARB all bounced off lows but failed to repair broader damage.
BTC.D slipped slightly, indicating this was not rotation into BTC dominance, but a broad de-leveraging event.
This was capitulation followed by exhaustion, not drift.
The speed of Friday’s rebound matters, but structure is still broken. Crypto is in repair mode, not recovery mode. Follow-through is required before confidence returns.
Metals snapped back hard.
Gold (4,967.270) ripped higher again, erasing most of last week’s damage. Silver (77.9410) followed with outsized strength, confirming that last week’s collapse was a forced unwind rather than a trend reversal. Capital rushed back into the metals complex as volatility compressed elsewhere.
Metals remain the dominant trend.
Energy stabilized.
WTI (63.575) bounced modestly, but remains range-bound. No stress here, but no acceleration signal either.
Rates held steady.
The 10-year (4.208) and 30-year TYX (4.86) barely moved. This stability allowed equities to rebound, but did not actively support further upside.
Dollar softened slightly.
DXY (97.681) drifted lower again, helping metals and cushioning risk assets.
Total crypto market cap slipped further.
TOTAL3 (711.88B) confirmed that capital continues to exit altcoins despite the equity rebound.
Takeaway:
This was a mechanical rebound, not a full regime reset. Equities recovered quickly, metals reclaimed leadership, and crypto lagged badly. Confirmation is still missing.
Catalysts in view
Post-Rebound Follow-Through Test
The coming week will show whether this rally was just a reflex or the start of stabilization. Watch whether buyers defend pullbacks or disappear once momentum fades.
Volatility Compression Risk
VIX (17.76) collapsed sharply this week. Rapid volatility compression after a selloff often leads to choppy reversals rather than clean continuation.
Earnings Reactions in a Fragile Tape
With volatility lower but confidence shaky, earnings surprises can produce exaggerated single-stock moves even if indices stay flat.
Crypto Capitulation Watch
Crypto remains weak relative to equities. Either it stabilizes soon, or downside pressure resumes as confidence erodes further.
Metals vs Risk Divergence
Gold and silver strength alongside equity rebound is a divergence worth respecting. This often signals hedging, not optimism.
Why it matters:
Markets just experienced a liquidation → relief → uncertainty sequence. That phase is notorious for false starts.
Risk Gauge
VIX (17.76)
Volatility collapsed fast. That supports short-term rebounds but increases whipsaw risk.DXY (97.681)
Dollar weakness continues to favor metals. A sudden bounce would pressure everything quickly.10-Yr UST (4.208)
Rates stable, but not helpful. Equity upside still lacks a tailwind.Gold (4,967.270)
Back in control. Trend intact despite last week’s shock.Equities (SPY 691 / NDX 25,076)
Sharp rebound, but still below recent highs. Needs confirmation.Crypto (BTC ~71K rebound / ETH recovering)
Experienced a full liquidation flush followed by a sharp reflex rally into Friday. The bounce relieves immediate pressure but does not yet confirm stabilization. Expect high volatility and wide ranges as the market tests whether buyers will defend higher lows.
Technical Note: This is a currently relief rally inside a fragile regime, not a return to easy conditions. Respect rebounds, but don’t assume forgiveness.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
