WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 2/21/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #40 — Saturday, February 21, 2026
MDLZ stopped out in profit at 58.90. PINS stop moved up into profit at 16.25.
Macro snapshot
The market chose continuation.
SPY closes the week at 689.43. NDX pushes to 25,012. QQQ at 608.81. Small caps at 2,663. Bitcoin cools to 68,052 while ETH slips to 1,976. Gold extends to 5,108. Silver rips to 84.62. The 10-year yield edges up to 4.086%. DXY rebounds to 97.79. VIX compresses to 19.09. MOVE falls to 64.26.
This week wasn’t about panic. Instead, it was about rotation and digestion.
Rates firmed modestly. The dollar bounced. Equities still advanced. That combination tells you liquidity is improving beneath the surface. The bond market isn’t screaming recession either. It’s recalibrating growth expectations after softer data earlier this month.
Crypto pulled back as dominance ticked higher to 58.90. That’s looking like defensive positioning inside digital assets, not full risk-off.
The message from markets: soft landing still intact, but the path higher is no longer straight-line. We’re in a consolidation phase within an uptrend until proven otherwise.
Volatility fading below 20 confirms that sentiment is stabilizing.
Catalysts in view
Inflation is behind us. Now the market pivots back to growth and policy tone.
Next week’s confirmed drivers:
• Fed Speakers (early week)
With PCE now printed, officials will have an opportunity to shape expectations. Watch for any shift in language around “patience,” balance sheet policy, or timing of easing. At 4.086% on the 10-year, rate sensitivity is elevated. Tone can move yields quickly.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Tuesday)
The consumer remains the spine of this cycle. A strong read reinforces soft-landing positioning and supports equities above breakout levels. A deterioration would revive growth-scare chatter and likely firm duration bids.
• S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index + Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Tuesday)
Housing price momentum alongside regional manufacturing gives a real-economy check. Strength here supports the consolidation-within-uptrend thesis. Weakness pressures cyclicals and small caps first.
• Pending Home Sales (late week)
Mortgage rates remain restrictive. Any sign of stabilization in transaction activity would signal resilience. Continued softness reinforces the “slow grind” growth regime.
• Treasury Auctions / Supply Dynamics
With yields hovering near 4.1%, auction demand is crucial. Strong bid-to-cover ratios compress term premium and support risk. Weak demand would push yields higher and test equity multiples.
No inflation data. No payrolls. This is a positioning week.
Markets will react less to shock and more to confirmation.
Risk Gauge
Volatility
VIX at 19.09 is constructive. Sub-20 regimes favor systematic buying and trend continuation. MOVE at 64 confirms bond volatility is compressing. This supports equities unless rates break higher sharply.Rates
US10Y at 4.086% is stable but creeping. Sustained trade above 4.25% would challenge high multiple tech. Below 4% unlocks upside acceleration.Dollar
DXY at 97.79 bounced. Continued dollar strength would pressure crypto and commodities short term. A failure back under 97 reopens global liquidity tailwinds.Equities
SPY at 689 maintains bullish structure. Watch prior breakout levels for defense. NDX above 25K is technically significant. Losing that level would invite volatility.Crypto
BTC at 68,052 remains constructive above prior consolidation. ETH at 1,976 needs to reclaim 2K to restore momentum. Dominance at 58.90 suggests selective risk, not broad speculation.Commodities
Gold at 5,108 and silver at 84.62 reflect ongoing macro hedging. Oil at 66.48 signals stable but not overheating growth.
Overall Risk Posture: Moderate, leaning constructive.
Liquidity is thawing while volatility is compressing. But rates and dollar strength still remain the pressure valves.
As such, position sizing discipline still matters here. Expansion phases reward patience. Compression phases punish overconfidence.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
