WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 2/14/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #39 — Saturday, February 14, 2026
FTNT stop moved up to 82.95. KO stop moved up to 76. MDLZ stop moved up to 58.90.
This week reminded markets how fast regimes can flip.
After last week’s cross-asset liquidation, risk snapped back sharply. Equities ripped higher, volatility collapsed, metals reasserted dominance, and crypto tried to stabilize but failed to reclaim lost ground. This was violent mean reversion driven by positioning relief.
The key question now isn’t whether buyers showed up.
It’s whether they’ll stay once the reflex is done.
Let’s break it down.
Macro snapshot
This week gave us clarity, but not resolution.
Nonfarm payrolls printed 130,000 with a massive 898,000 downward annual revision to 2025. CPI came in cool. The bond market responded first, equities hesitated, and volatility refused to collapse.
SPY closes the week at 681.75. NDX at 24,732. QQQ at 601.92. Small caps hold 2,646. Bitcoin sits at 69,816. ETH at 2,086. Gold remains elevated at 5,042 while silver trades 77.33. The 10-year yield is 4.05%. DXY at 96.88. VIX ends the week at 20.6.
Here’s the tension: inflation is easing, growth data is being revised lower, and the Fed only recently stepped out of prolonged QT. Liquidity conditions are slowly loosening, but positioning is still heavy and defensive.
Equities are pricing stabilization. Bonds are pricing disinflation. Volatility is pricing uncertainty.
The takeaway:Wwe are in a transition regime. This is no longer tightening. It is not yet expansion. Markets are recalibrating expectations around a softening economy with a gradually improving liquidity backdrop.
That combination rarely resolves quietly.
Catalysts in view
Next week is lighter on headline bombs, but that does not mean inactive.
Watch:
• FOMC speakers for tone shifts post-CPI
• Retail sales data for confirmation of consumer resilience
• Treasury issuance flows and auction demand
• Any forward guidance revisions tied to payroll adjustments
The market will be looking for narrative continuity. If CPI softness is followed by weak retail sales, growth fears will gain traction. If sales hold firm, the soft-landing thesis regains oxygen.
Also monitor crypto dominance. BTC.D at 58.73 suggests capital remains defensive within digital assets. TOTAL3 at 728.68B shows alt liquidity is present but selective. If dominance rolls over while BTC holds 69K, that would signal risk appetite expansion.
Risk Gauge
VIX (20.6)
This isn’t panic. It’s more discomfort. Elevated but controlled. MOVE at 70.10 confirms bond volatility is cooling but not dead. Compression here would unlock equity upside. Expansion would pressure multiples.DXY (96.88)
Dollar continues to soften. A continued drift lower supports commodities and crypto. A sharp reversal higher would tighten global liquidity conditions fast.10-Yr UST (4.05%)
This is a pivotal level. Sustained moves below 4% would likely ignite duration trades and tech leadership. A push back above 4.25% would stress high multiple names quicklyGold (5042)
Suggests macro hedging remains active.Equities (SPY 681)
Holding this level keeps trend structure intact. A weekly close below prior range support would shift posture from continuation to distribution watch.Crypto (BTC 69816 / ETH 2086)
BTC remains construction above prior range resistance. ETH nees to reclaim momentum or risk lagging. If BTC holds while ETH and alts accelerate, that signals broader risk rotation. If BTC weakens while dominance rises, that signals defensive digital positioning.
Overall Risk Posture: Moderate. Transition environment. Liquidity thaw beginning, but confidence not yet restored.
This is a regime where over-sizing gets punished and patience compounds.
Stay tactical. Stay selective. Protect capital first. The expansion phase, if it comes, will reward those who preserved ammunition here.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
