WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 2/1/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #37 — Sunday, February 1, 2026
MU hit target.
This week broke the illusion.
After weeks of rotation and compression, markets finally cracked across multiple fronts. Equities rolled over together, crypto unraveled sharply, metals suffered a violent air pocket, and energy joined the downside. Volatility rose, but not explosively. This wasn’t capitulation. It was forced repricing.
The key shift: correlation returned.
When everything sells at once, the regime has changed.
Let’s break it down.
Macro snapshot
Equities reversed lower in unison.
SPY (691.97), NDX (25,552.39), QQQ (621.87), and RUT (2,613.74) all sold off meaningfully this week, erasing recent consolidation gains. Unlike prior pullbacks, this move was broad and persistent rather than dip-and-recover. Buyers stepped back. Sellers pressed into rallies.
This was index-level de-risking.
Crypto saw outright liquidation.
BTCUSD (75,358.35) broke decisively lower, losing the entire January structure. ETHUSD (2,208.45) followed with accelerated downside. Alts were hit hard across the board: SOL (98.92), DOT (1.482), ATOM (1.903), and ARB (0.1330) all unwound weeks of progress.
BTC.D (59.77) held steady, confirming this wasn’t rotation into BTC, but instead was exit behavior.
Crypto moved from cooling to liquidation.
Metals suffered a sharp regime flip.
Gold (4,637.512) and silver (76.6020) both collapsed after extended upside runs. These weren’t gentle pullbacks. They were air pockets triggered by crowded positioning, stronger liquidity demand elsewhere, and the unwind of the dollar-hedge trade.
This looks like forced profit-taking, not a clean trend break, but the damage is real.
Energy rolled over.
WTI (62.338) reversed sharply, reinforcing the idea that global demand expectations are softening and that inflation pressure from energy is not the immediate threat.
Rates held firm, not friendly.
The 10-year (4.226) barely budged. The 30-year TYX (4.87) stayed elevated. This matters: assets sold off without yields providing relief. Financial conditions tightened by price, not policy.
Dollar stayed steady.
DXY (97.075) barely moved. This selloff wasn’t driven by a dollar spike, instead it was driven by positioning exhaustion.
Total crypto market cap dropped hard.
TOTAL3 (746.54B) confirmed the scale of the unwind beneath the surface.
Takeaway:
This was a cross-asset reset, not a panic. Liquidity pulled back, leverage came out, and crowded trades were punished simultaneously.
Catalysts in view
Post-Liquidation Stabilization Test
The coming week will determine whether this move was a one-week flush or the start of a larger drawdown. Watch whether markets can hold ranges or if sellers continue to press.
Volatility Follow-Through
VIX (17.44) moved higher, but not to stress levels. If volatility continues to climb while prices fail to rebound, risk conditions deteriorate quickly.
Earnings + Macro Crosscurrents
Earnings reactions now land in a fragile tape. Good news may get sold. Bad news will be punished. Expect asymmetric reactions.
Crypto Reflex Bounce vs Continuation
Crypto is deeply oversold short-term. A bounce is possible, but if it fails quickly then downside acceleration becomes the dominant path.
Metals Mean-Reversion Risk
Gold and silver just experienced violent momentum breaks. Whether they stabilize or continue unwinding will shape broader risk sentiment.
Why it matters:
The market is shifting from broad participation to targeted conviction. That transition usually produces uneven price action and surprise reversals.
Risk Gauge
VIX (17.44)
Volatility is rising, but not yet extreme. Direction matters more than level.DXY (97.075)
Dollar stable. This selloff wasn’t currency-driven, which makes it harder to “fix” quickly.10-Yr UST (4.226)
Rates are not easing. That removes a key safety net for risk assets.Gold (4,637.512)
Trend damage after a crowded run. Needs stabilization before trust returns.Equities (SPY 692 / NDX 25,552)
Broad de-risking underway. Rallies may be sold until structure improves.Crypto (BTC 75,358 / ETH 2,208)
Liquidation phase. Expect volatility and wide ranges.
Technical Note: This is no longer a low-friction market. Survival beats speed until stability returns.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
