WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 1/3/2026
Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.
WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #33 — Saturday, January 3, 2026
PLTR stopped in profit at 163.
ABNB stop loss moved up to 128. TMO stop loss moved up to 575. NEAR/USDT stop loss moved up to 1.60. PEPE/USDT stop loss moved up to 0.00000494.
The year opened quietly, but not passively.
Markets slipped into 2026 with controlled positioning rather than fireworks. Equities held their ranges, crypto perked up, metals stayed bid, and volatility continued to compress. There was no January panic and no euphoric chase, just early-year probing as liquidity slowly returns.
This was a reset week, not a launch week. Next week is when intent starts to show.
Let’s break it down.
Macro snapshot
Equities opened the year steady, not stretched.
SPY (683.17) held near recent highs, while NDX (25,206.17) and QQQ (613.12) churned sideways after December’s rebound. RUT (2,508.22) quietly outperformed, suggesting early rotation toward higher beta and domestic exposure. The tape showed patience rather than urgency; buyers defended levels, but no one chased.
This is classic first-week discovery, not distribution.
Crypto showed renewed energy.
BTCUSD (91,090.07) reclaimed the low-91k area, while ETHUSD (3,146.64) pushed higher alongside it. Alts improved modestly: SOL (133.88), DOT (2.123), ATOM (2.233), and ARB (0.2101) all firmed without excess. BTC.D (59.22) ticked slightly higher, indicating leadership returning to majors rather than broad speculation.
Crypto is waking up, not overheating.
Metals stayed firmly in control.
Gold (4,331.575) held near highs, and silver (72.8190) continued to grind upward. These aren’t panic bids, they’re persistence bids. The trend remains intact as real rates stay volatile and macro clarity remains incomplete.
Energy remained range-bound.
WTI (57.420) drifted sideways. Supply and demand are balanced enough to prevent stress, but there’s no sign of acceleration yet.
Rates nudged higher.
The 10-year (4.195) and 30-year TYX (4.86) ticked up again, reminding markets that the rate environment remains a constraint. This isn’t a breakout in yields, but it is enough to keep equity multiples in check.
Dollar softened slightly.
DXY (98.433) stayed below 99, continuing to ease financial conditions at the margin.
Total crypto market cap improved.
TOTAL3 (873.2B) confirmed the incremental bid across altcoins without signaling a speculative surge.
Takeaway:
The first trading week of 2026 brought stability with a slight risk-on tilt. No asset class is stretched, and nothing looks fragile, but conviction is still forming.
Catalysts in view
First Full Trading Week of the Year
Liquidity returns fast next week. Portfolio managers begin expressing real views instead of parking capital. Early January flows often set the tone for the entire quarter.
Re-engagement of Macro Data
With holiday distortions behind us, incoming data will start to matter again. Markets will recalibrate expectations quickly if numbers deviate from late-December assumptions.
Rates as the Primary Constraint
Yields remain elevated enough to cap runaway equity upside. Any pullback in rates would act as a release valve; further upside would pressure duration-heavy assets.
Crypto Leadership Test
BTC reclaimed 91k, but dominance is rising. That suggests this phase favors majors first. Alt follow-through will depend on whether BTC holds momentum into mid-January.
Volatility Compression Risk
VIX (14.51) remains pinned near complacent levels. That condition can persist but when it breaks, it usually breaks quickly.
Why this matters:
January is when markets stop whispering and start speaking clearly. The next week is about signal extraction, not noise.
Risk Gauge
VIX (14.51)
Volatility remains compressed. This reflects calm, not safety. Expansion risk is asymmetric.DXY (98.433)
Dollar remains soft. Continued weakness supports metals and crypto; a reversal would tighten conditions fast.10-Yr UST (4.195)
Rates are the key governor. Watch this level closely. It dictates how far risk can run.Gold (4,331.575)
Trend intact. Strength here continues to argue for hedging rather than full risk embrace.Equities (SPY 683 / NDX 25,206)
Holding gains, probing direction. No breakdown, no breakout — yet.Crypto (BTC 91,090 / ETH 3,147)
Constructive and firm. Momentum favors continuation if risk conditions cooperate.
Technical Note: This is a calm before definition, not a calm before collapse.
The market is setting its feet.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
