WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 12/6/2025

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Dec 07, 2025

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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #29 — Saturday, December 6, 2025

CORRECTION: Wednesday, I noted that ARB/USDT had hit its entry, however that was incorrect as the entry was set at 0.2264 and ARB had only reached 0.2256. I apologize for the incorrect notification. Please remember to always verify all entries, targets, and stop losses.

This week was a controlled climb across risk assets, with equities extending their November reversal, crypto stabilizing after last week’s rebound, metals cooling modestly, and the dollar drifting lower. Volatility compressed yet again. With the December 10 FOMC meeting now only days away, and the market still pricing a heavy probability of a rate cut, prices are coiling, not trending.

This was a positioning week, not a conviction week.
Next week is decision time.

Let’s break it down.

Macro snapshot

Equities continued their upward drive, though the tempo slowed compared to last week’s impulsive surge.
SPY (685.69), NDX (25,692.05), and QQQ (625.48) all moved higher again, with daily structure showing steady higher highs and higher lows. Buyers weren’t as aggressive as last week, but they remained present, defending every shallow pullback.
RUT (2,521.48) lagged slightly, reflecting rotation away from small caps.

Breadth improved mid-week, then flattened; classic pre-FOMC behavior.

Crypto held structure while waiting for a catalyst.
BTCUSD (89,362.76) dipped early, then recovered into the mid-89k zone. ETHUSD (3,044.26) held its higher-low structure from late November. Alts like SOL (132.59), DOT (2.132), ATOM (2.233), and ARB (0.2086) all stayed constructive but directionless.
BTC.D (59.17) remained unchanged, a perfect signal that capital is holding its breath.

This is coiling, not trending.

Metals cooled but stayed elevated.
Gold (4,197.405) slipped slightly from last week’s highs, and silver (58.2910) saw mild strength. These are normal retracements after a breakout week, not trend reversals. With the dollar drifting, metals remain well-bid structurally.

Energy saw support.
WTI (60.179) firmed above the 60 level, stabilizing after multiple weeks of softness. The move wasn’t explosive, but it was steady. Demand isn’t strong, but it’s no longer eroding.

Rates pushed higher into the FOMC window.
The 10-year (4.139) and 30-year TYX (4.79) both saw modest upward pressure as bonds repriced the approaching Fed decision. With no NFP this week, and labor data still delayed until mid-month, bonds are trading off expectations rather than fresh input.

Dollar drifted lower again.
DXY (98.986) is now decisively below 100, reinforcing the market’s belief that easing is coming.

Total crypto market cap edged higher.
TOTAL3 (863.59B) reinforced the stabilization theme visible across alts.

Takeaway:
The market is holding gains across all risk assets, but the tone is reserved. No one wants to take the wrong side of next week’s FOMC, especially without fresh labor prints. The cut is still priced heavily, but expectations without confirmation make for fragile conviction.

Catalysts in view

FOMC Meeting — December 10
This is the main event.
FedWatch still leans toward a December rate cut, though upward drift in yields this week shows traders hedging the tail scenario. Without NFP data, the Fed must rely on partial and backward-looking metrics, which increases uncertainty in the statement language and press conference.

Prepare for a volatility expansion.
Inflation Inputs: PPI & CPI Expectations (Not Releases)
Since headline CPI does not print before the meeting, the market will trade off expectations and survey data.
Any preview commentary from policymakers or economists can move yields sharply.
Ongoing Labor-Data Vacuum
Because Employment Situation is pushed to December 16, the market enters the FOMC meeting with:
• No fresh NFP
• No new unemployment rate
• No new AHE figures

It’s a rare setup: policy decision without full visibility.
That alone raises intraday volatility risk.
Crypto Liquidity Shifts
Alt-sectors are holding steady while BTC dominance is flat. A break in dominance — up or down — will trigger rotation. Expect high volatility post-FOMC, especially in majors that have been coiled for two weeks.
Month-End + Event-Week Positioning
Fund managers and systematic funds reduce risk into major macro events.
CTAs remain net-long but near flip zones depending on equity volatility.

Why this matters:
This is a heavy expectation week with minimal new data. Markets will move on language, tone, and reaction, not on prints. Whipsaws are likely.

Risk Gauge

VIX (15.41) Volatility faded again. It’s far too low heading into a major policy meeting. Expect this to reset quickly on even mild surprises.
DXY (98.986) Dollar drift continues. Sub-100 levels support risk assets, metals, and crypto, but this trend is highly sensitive to FOMC outcomes.
10-Yr UST (4.139) Yields creeping upward suggest markets are hedging into the meeting. A dovish Fed would unwind this; a neutral or hawkish tone could push yields another leg higher.
Gold (4,197.405) Healthy pullback after last week’s surge. The trend remains intact.
Equities (SPY 685 / NDX 25,692) Controlled advance. Buyers still in charge. Tone is confident but not euphoric which is ideal pre-event structure.
Crypto (BTC 89,363 / ETH 3,044) Stable, coiled, waiting for the next macro domino. Expect sharp moves once the FOMC hits.

Technical Note: The surface looks calm, but the internals are wired tight.
The next 5 days are likely to set the path into year-end.

Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)