WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 12/20/2025
Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.
WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #31 — Saturday, December 20, 2025
This week brought relief, but not resolution.
Equities bounced sharply after last week’s repricing, volatility collapsed, and liquidity thinned fast. Crypto cooled while holding structure, metals pushed higher again, and the dollar continued to drift lower. With Christmas days away, markets are transitioning into holiday mode — fewer participants, lighter volume, and exaggerated reactions to small orders.
This was a position-reset week, not a fresh trend launch.
The tape is quieter now, but also less trustworthy.
Let’s break it down.
Macro snapshot
Equities rebounded decisively.
SPY (680.59), NDX (25,346.18), QQQ (617.05), and RUT (2,529.42) all pushed higher this week, retracing a meaningful portion of last week’s drawdown. The bounce was clean and broad, with buyers stepping back in quickly once yields stabilized. That said, follow-through was lighter toward week’s end, a classic tell as holiday liquidity takes over.
This was relief buying, not aggressive accumulation.
Crypto consolidated lower but stayed orderly.
BTCUSD (88,128.45) drifted back below 90k, while ETHUSD (2,972.97) slipped toward the high-2,900s. Alts softened across the board: SOL (125.36), DOT (1.813), ATOM (1.974), and ARB (0.1888) all eased without breaking structure.
BTC.D (59.54) remained flat, suggesting no panic rotation, just cooling momentum.
Crypto looks paused, not pressured.
Metals continued to assert leadership.
Gold (4,338.669) pushed to fresh highs again, reinforcing its role as the clearest trend in the market. Silver (67.1530) followed with strength, holding elevated levels despite broader risk asset chop. These moves remain consistent with rate uncertainty and late-cycle hedging.
Energy stayed weak but stable.
WTI (56.728) held above recent lows, but demand signals remain soft. No stress here, but no upside momentum either.
Rates steadied after last week’s surge.
The 10-year (4.149) and 30-year TYX (4.83) flattened out, removing some pressure from equities. With the major macro catalysts now behind us, rates are likely to drift on low volume into year-end.
Dollar drift continued.
DXY (98.718) stayed below 99, supporting metals and keeping financial conditions from tightening further.
Total crypto market cap dipped modestly.
TOTAL3 (836.42B) reflected the broad consolidation across alts rather than capital flight.
Takeaway:
This was a relief week inside a thinning market. Equities bounced, metals led, crypto cooled, and volatility collapsed. With Christmas next week, price action will be increasingly driven by liquidity gaps rather than conviction.
Catalysts in view
Christmas Week Liquidity Collapse
With markets closing early and desks emptying out, volume will be thin across all asset classes. This environment tends to produce:
• Sharp intraday moves with little follow-through
• False breakouts and breakdowns
• Overreactions to minor headlinesRisk management matters more than prediction next week.
Post-Data, Pre-Year-End Drift
The major macro events are behind us. What remains is positioning, window dressing, and book-closing behavior. That often favors range trading over trend chasing.
Volatility Compression
VIX (14.91) collapsed back toward complacent levels. While this can persist into year-end, it also makes the market vulnerable to sudden spikes on minimal news.
Metals vs. Risk Assets
Gold’s continued strength while equities bounce is a quiet divergence. It doesn’t signal immediate danger, but it does suggest hedging hasn’t fully unwound.
Crypto Holiday Effect
Crypto trades 24/7, but liquidity still thins around holidays. Expect choppier ranges and stop-driven moves rather than clean trends.
Why this matters:
Holiday weeks reward patience and discipline. The biggest risk is assuming that quiet means safe.
Risk Gauge
VIX (14.91)
Volatility compressed hard. This is a holiday condition, not a statement of safety.DXY (98.718)
Dollar remains soft. Any sudden bounce would pressure risk assets quickly in thin markets.10-Yr UST (4.149)
Rates stabilized. If they stay quiet, equities can drift; if they jump, reactions will be outsized.Gold (4,338.669)
Still the strongest trend on the board. Respect it.Equities (SPY 681 / NDX 25,346)
Rebounded, but conviction fades into Christmas. Expect ranges, not momentum.Crypto (BTC 88,128 / ETH 2,973)
Cooling consolidation. Structure intact, but upside likely waits until liquidity returns.
Technical Note: This is not the week to press size. Thin liquidity, compressed volatility, and year-end positioning favor defense over aggression.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
