WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 12/13/2025

Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.

Christopher Inks

Dec 14, 2025

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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #30 — Saturday, December 13, 2025

CSCO stop loss moved up to 75.30.

This week snapped the market out of its calm.

Equities finally corrected after weeks of strength, rates pushed higher again, gold surged, and volatility woke up just enough to remind everyone that policy weeks are not neutral weeks. Crypto diverged, holding firm while traditional risk assets absorbed pressure. The market didn’t panic, but it did reposition.

This was a risk reassessment week, not a breakdown.
Next week decides whether this was a pause… or the start of something larger.

Let’s break it down.

Macro snapshot

Equities pulled back hard after last week’s run.
SPY (681.76), NDX (25,196.73), and QQQ (613.62) all sold off meaningfully, erasing a chunk of the prior impulse rally. The move was controlled, broad, and systematic. Sellers pressed into strength, not into fear.
RUT (2,551.46) held up slightly better relative to large caps, suggesting this wasn’t pure risk-off but rather duration and valuation pressure.

This looked like macro hedging, not a liquidation event.

Crypto decoupled and held firm.
BTCUSD (90,388.22) pushed back above the 90k handle. ETHUSD (3,124.05) extended higher and closed the week strong relative to equities. Alts followed suit quietly: SOL (133.41), DOT (2.043), ATOM (2.186), and ARB (0.2168) all remained constructive.
BTC.D (59.21) stayed flat, reinforcing that this was stability, not rotation.

Crypto acted like a market waiting, not one under stress.

Metals broke higher again.
Gold (4,299.285) surged to new highs, confirming that last week’s pullback was brief and corrective. This was a renewed bid, driven by rates volatility and policy uncertainty.
Silver (61.9200) cooled slightly after its recent surge but remained elevated.

Energy softened.
WTI (57.524) slipped again, reflecting ongoing demand uncertainty rather than liquidity stress.

Rates moved higher across the curve.
The 10-year (4.186) and 30-year TYX (4.86) both climbed, signaling bond market discomfort ahead of policy clarity. With labor data still delayed and inflation prints incomplete, bonds are trading expectations, not facts.

Dollar stabilized.
DXY (98.393) held steady below 100. The dollar didn’t surge, but it stopped falling, which is an important shift as markets reassess easing expectations.

Total crypto market cap edged higher.
TOTAL3 (866.18B) confirmed that crypto liquidity stayed intact despite equity weakness.

Takeaway:
This was a repricing week, not a fear week. Equities corrected, metals caught a bid, crypto held ground, and rates climbed. The market is adjusting positioning ahead of confirmation, not fleeing risk outright at this time.

Catalysts in view

Post-FOMC Market Digestion
The market is now trading the interpretation of the Fed, not the decision itself. Language, projections, and credibility will matter more than the headline cut or hold.
Expect follow-through volatility as positioning resets.
Delayed Labor Data — December 16
The consolidated Employment Situation report looms mid-week. This is the first real labor clarity the market has had in weeks.
Any surprise here will immediately feed into rate expectations, equities, and metals.
Inflation Sensitivity Remains High
Even without fresh CPI next week, inflation expectations remain fragile. Yields have already started adjusting. Any commentary or revisions tied to inflation will move markets fast.
Crypto Reaction Window
Crypto held firm during equity weakness. If equities stabilize, crypto could break higher. If equities roll again, crypto’s relative strength will be tested.
Volatility Repricing
With VIX finally lifting off the floor, options markets are no longer complacent. This increases the odds of wider daily ranges across all assets..

Why this matters:
The market is transitioning from expectation-driven trading to data-driven trading. That shift usually comes with sharper moves and fewer second chances.

Risk Gauge

VIX (15.74)
Volatility finally moved higher. Still not elevated, but no longer asleep. The direction matters more than the level.
DXY (98.393)
Dollar stabilized. If it strengthens further, risk assets feel pressure. If it rolls back over, metals and crypto benefit.
10-Yr UST (4.186)
Yields remain the key stress variable. Further upside pressures equities; a pullback would ease conditions quickly.
Gold (4,299.285)
Strongest signal on the board. The bid is real and persistent.
Equities (SPY 682 / NDX 25,197)
Pullback looks corrective for now, but support levels matter next week. A failure to stabilize would change the tone quickly.
Crypto (BTC 90,388 / ETH 3,124)
Holding structure while equities reset. Relative strength is notable.

Technical Note: Markets are no longer gliding. They’re negotiating.
Expect larger ranges, faster reactions, and fewer low-effort trades.

Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)