WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 11/8/2025

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Nov 09, 2025

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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #25 — Saturday, November 8, 2025

As mentioned last week, October ended without drama but not without tension. On Oct 29, the Fed cut the funds rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% and said balance-sheet runoff will end Dec 1, a shift made amid elevated outlook uncertainty. With the government still shut down and key data frozen, traders are navigating on technicals and positioning rather than fresh macro guidance.

AMAT pulled back and hit its stop loss in profit.

Macro snapshot

Equities slipped through the first week of November. The S&P (670.97) and Nasdaq 100 (25,059) both lost ground as sellers leaned into overhead resistance. Mega-caps bled off post-earnings gains, and rotation into cyclicals failed to absorb supply. Volume rose into the Friday close, hinting at quiet de-risking rather than broad panic.

Crypto softened alongside risk assets. Bitcoin (~101,759) is lower after tagging 110K last week, ETH (~3,380) followed, and most alts stayed orderly. Liquidity is intact but participation light; no fresh inflows while macro data remains frozen.

Rates held steady. The 10-year yield (4.09%) and 30-year (4.70%) barely budged, the dollar (DXY 99.56) eased, gold (~4,000) and silver (~48.3) extended mild gains, and crude (~59.98) hovered near $60.

Takeaway: The first real week of November traded defensively. Sellers regained short-term control, breadth narrowed, and momentum slipped into distribution mode. Until Washington reopens, price action will mirror liquidity rotation more than fundamentals.

Catalysts in view

AI/CapEx momentum: Big tech continues capex spending (data-centers, chips). Tailwind remains intact, but valuations are full. A miss could trigger a sharp unwind.
Fed & policy timing: With inflation sticky and labor soft, the Federal Reserve’s next move remains ambiguous. A surprise shift would ripple through equities and fixed-income.
Liquidity & breadth risk: Despite strong headline indices, internal breadth is thinning. Rally-without-rotation is a warning in the making.
Commodity & FX backdrop: Gold recovery suggests safe-haven reflex; crude inventory builds weigh on oil (~59.98) and cyclicals. DXY strength (~99.556) adds headwind to global earnings.

Why it matters: With macro data light, liquidity anchors to bond auctions and positioning flows. The real risk isn’t volatility, it’s drift and mispricing in a thin tape. Next week’s CPI print and Treasury issuance will decide whether this balance breaks toward trend or reversal.

Risk Gauge

VIX (19.08): Uptick as traders hedge data-gap risk; still subdued versus realized volatility.
DXY (99.56): Off highs but bid intact; funding demand and relative growth still favor USD.
10-Yr UST (4.09%): Flat; treated as equilibrium in the absence of new data.
Gold (4,000): Holding steady; quiet hedge against prolonged policy limbo.
Equities (SPY 670 / NDX 25,059): Grinding; breadth modestly better, volume reactive not proactive.
Crypto (BTC 101,759 / ETH 3,380): Coiling under resistance; volatility compression suggests breakout potential once macro clarity returns.

Technical Note: The tape is balanced but brittle. With macro data frozen, markets are running on muscle memory. Trade edges, fade over-extensions, and stay nimble. Conviction will return only when Washington reopens.

Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)