WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 1/17/2026
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #35 — Saturday, January 17, 2026
TSM hit target at 343.25. COIN stopped out in profit at 245.
CAT (stop moved up into profit at 622).
Momentum finally paused this week.
After a strong start to January, markets shifted into digestion mode. Equities churned rather than extended, crypto cooled after a sharp run, metals pulled back modestly from highs, and rates pushed higher again. Volatility didn’t spike, but it stopped compressing. It was less a selloff, and more a check on positioning.
The question now isn’t “are we risk-on?”
It’s how much more risk the market can carry without rates pushing back harder.
Let’s break it down.
Macro snapshot
Equities stalled after the breakout.
SPY (691.66), NDX (25,529.26), and QQQ (621.26) spent the week moving sideways to slightly lower, digesting last week’s momentum surge. Importantly, sellers never pressed aggressively. Dips were shallow and volume stayed contained.
RUT (2,677.74) continued to outperform quietly, signaling that risk appetite hasn’t rolled over, even as mega-caps pause.
This looks like consolidation above former resistance, not rejection.
Crypto cooled after a strong push.
BTCUSD (94,991.70) pulled back from recent highs but stayed well above prior breakout levels. ETHUSD (3,300.60) followed with a controlled retracement. Alts softened broadly: SOL (142.55), DOT (2.168), ATOM (2.555), and ARB (0.2152) all eased without structural damage.
BTC.D (59.60) edged higher, a typical sign of cooling speculative appetite rather than stress.
Crypto is resetting momentum, not breaking trend.
Metals finally paused.
Gold (4,595.515) slipped after a multi-week surge, while silver (90.0780) saw a sharper pullback. This looks like profit-taking after an extended run, not a trend reversal. Metals remain the strongest multi-week trend across asset classes.
Energy remained range-bound.
WTI (59.474) held steady, reflecting stable but uninspiring demand signals.
Rates pushed higher again.
The 10-year (4.227) and 30-year TYX (4.84) both moved up, re-introducing pressure on duration-sensitive assets. This was the most important macro shift of the week and the reason equities failed to extend.
Dollar firmed modestly.
DXY (99.375) ticked higher, enough to cool risk assets without triggering risk-off behavior.
Total crypto market cap dipped slightly.
TOTAL3 (888.04B) reflected broad consolidation across alts rather than capital flight.
Takeaway:
This week was a momentum pause, driven by higher yields rather than fear. The market is absorbing gains, not abandoning them.
Catalysts in view
Rates as the Primary Driver
Yields moved higher this week, and that matters more than any single headline. If rates continue climbing, equity upside will be capped. If they stabilize, consolidation likely resolves higher.
Earnings Season Acceleration
With earnings picking up next week, stock-specific reactions will start to matter more than index-level narratives. Dispersion should increase.
Volatility Re-Pricing
VIX (15.86) stopped falling and nudged higher. This isn’t stress, but it is a shift. Volatility expansion tends to follow periods of extreme calm.
Crypto Leadership Test
BTC remains well above breakout levels, but dominance is rising. If BTC stabilizes here, altcoins may lag temporarily before re-engaging.
Liquidity Normalization
January liquidity is now fully back. That means moves will be cleaner, but also less forgiving. False breakouts are more likely to be punished.
Why it matters:
The market is transitioning from momentum-driven upside to selective follow-through. Risk remains supported, but it must now justify itself.
Risk Gauge
VIX (15.86)
Volatility has stopped compressing. This increases the odds of wider daily ranges.DXY (99.375)
Dollar firming slightly. Further strength would pressure risk assets.10-Yr UST (4.227)
Rates are the key constraint. Continued upside here would change the tone quickly.Gold (4,595.515)
Pulling back after an extended run. Trend still intact.Equities (SPY 692 / NDX 25,529)
Consolidating above breakout levels. Still constructive, but no longer frictionless.Crypto (BTC 94,992 / ETH 3,301)
Cooling after strength. Structure remains bullish.
Technical Note: This is a pause inside an uptrend, not a reversal.
But higher rates mean the market must earn its next leg higher.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
