WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 11/29/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #28 — Saturday, November 29, 2025
Equities didn’t glide higher this week, they charged
Monday opened soft, then the tape flipped into a clean, aggressive, multi-day rally with wide-body candles on both SPY and NDX. Buyers stepped in early and never backed off. The market didn’t float; it marched. And underneath it all sits the same gravitational anchor: The CME FedWatch Tool is pricing an 86.4% probability of a rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting.
Every asset class is rearranging around that expectation. Next week’s data determines whether the rearrangement turns into a breakout… or a reversal.
GOOGL’s stop has been moved up again to 299. INTC stop moved up to 39.
Macro snapshot
Equities delivered a real rally — structured, directional, and intentional.
SPY (683.39, +0.55%), NDX (25,434.89, +0.78%), and QQQ (619.25, +0.81%) climbed for four straight sessions, reclaiming key pivots on strong real-body candles.
NDX surged off Monday’s lows and drove directly into the underside of the November breakdown zone, a classic reclaim-and-drive pattern.
SPY did the same: strong push, continuation, and a clean break above 674.87 resistance.
These weren’t short squeezes. These were buyers positioning ahead of a high-probability Fed cut.
Breadth improved all week. Volume didn’t explode, but it was committed; the kind of tape where participation isn’t euphoric but is absolutely present.
Crypto rallied early in the week, then froze.
BTCUSD (90,835, –0.02%) put in a clean reaction off ~88,402, ripping higher in a sharp multi-day bounce. But the move stalled immediately at the underside of the breakdown structure around 90.5k–91k. Since Wednesday, BTC has traded in a tight cluster of small candles, momentum indicators elevated but price refusing to push through resistance.
That’s classic compression under supply ahead of a catalyst.
ETHUSD (2,994.99, +0.16%) followed the same form: strong bounce off ~2,692, but capped cleanly beneath the breakdown level near 3,270. The chart shows a flat, indecisive mid-range cluster with oscillators running hot and volume fading. This is a waiting pattern, not a fresh trend.
Altcoins reflected the same tone: SOL (136.08, +0.13%), DOT (2.265, +0.27%), ATOM (2.434, +0.29%), and ARB (0.2164, +0.98%) all bounced, but none reclaimed meaningful structure.
Metals were the week’s standout trend.
Gold (4,218.769, +1.49%) and Silver (56.3702, +5.61%) didn’t just climb; they accelerated. These moves match the FedWatch curve perfectly; metals historically front-run confirmed cuts and softening real yields.
Crude weakened again.
WTI (58.571, –1.06%) continued its slow bleed. That’s a demand story, not a liquidity story.
Rates stayed pinned.
The 10-year (US10Y 4.017%) and 30-year (TYX 4.67%) barely moved all week.
Bond traders are effectively on strike until they see PMI + NFP together.
Dollar softened meaningfully.
DXY (99.479, -0.05%) finally broke below 100. A weak dollar + strong metals + strong equities = a market pre-positioning for easing.
Takeaway:
This week was an assertive repositioning rally in equities, surrounded by calm-but-watching behavior elsewhere. The market is leaning into the cut, and next week’s data will either lock that in or unwind it quickly.
Catalysts in view
Monday, Dec 1
• ISM Manufacturing PMI
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final)
• Construction SpendingTuesday, Dec 2
• JOLTS Job Openings
• Factory OrdersWednesday, Dec 3
• ADP Employment Report
• Q3 Productivity (revision)
• Q3 Unit Labor Costs (revision)
• Beige BookThursday, Dec 4
• Weekly Jobless Claims
• ISM Services PMI
• S&P Global Services PMI (final)Friday, Dec 5
• Consumer Credit (probably, but unconfirmed post-government reopening)
How to think about this week
1. The December 10 cut is priced like a certainty, but it’s not guaranteed.
FedWatch at 86.4% odds means the market believes easing is coming.
That makes next week’s data the arbiter of whether those odds harden or crumble.
2. Hot data = cut odds get smashed.
A strong ISM Services would cause immediate repricing:
• Dollar strengthens
• Metals pull back
• Equities pause or fade
• Yields push higher
3. Weak data = cut locked in.
Metals keep ripping, dollar keeps leaking, equities get a tailwind.
4. Neutral data = volatility spike.
When a cut is heavily priced in, ambiguous signals cause the most churn.
Why this matters:
Next week is the most consequential macro week of Q4. The December 10 cut lives or dies on these numbers. This month’s NFP will be released on December 16, which is after the FOMC meeting.
Risk Gauge
VIX (16.35)
Volatility collapsed. Too fast, too clean. This level has historically preceded sharp mean-reversion spikes when catalysts arrive.DXY (99.479)
Dollar gently weakening. Not enough to ignite risk-on, but enough to support metals and soften pressure on crypto.10-Yr UST (4.017%)
Pinned. Market waiting for data confirmation before taking directional bets.Gold (4,218.769)
Strong surge, confirming rotation into metals. This is the standout trend of the week.Equities (SPY 683 / NDX 25,435)
Trending upward, though mechanically. No real conviction, but also no selling pressure. Think “float higher until proven otherwise.”Crypto (BTC 90,835 / ETH 2,995)
Healthy bounces across majors, but both BTC and ETH stalled directly beneath structural resistance. Momentum oscillators are elevated with price flat, a pattern that typically precedes volatility expansion. Compression is tight. A macro-triggered move, up or down, is imminent once next week’s data hits.
Technical Note: Tape is balanced but narrow. Volatility compression is building under the surface, and with data back online, expansions can trigger fast. Trade the edges, keep position sizes modest, and respect levels. This is a transition zone, not a trend.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)
