WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 11/22/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #27 — Saturday, November 22, 2025
Markets are stabilizing, but not convincing… yet.
This week delivered a relief bounce across equities and crypto, but participation stayed thin and volume unimpressive. The government is open, data is flowing again, but traders still haven’t committed to a direction. With the Fed cut fully absorbed and year-end flows approaching, the tape feels mechanical, not inspired.
NOTE: This week’s crypto setups are looking for a pullback into their respective entry levels. But if price hits their targets without hitting their entry levels first, then the setups are invalidated. And, in that case, the bottom is likely in.
Macro snapshot
Equities recovered after last week’s stumble. SPY (659.03) gained 1%, NDX (24,239) added 0.77%, and QQQ (590.07) followed suit. The Russell 2000 (2,369) outperformed sharply with a 2.8% rally (classic short-covering behavior into light liquidity). Under the hood, breadth improved but didn’t flip decisively; most of the week’s upside came from hedges unwinding rather than new buyers stepping in.
Crypto saw a constructive bounce. BTC (~85,861) climbed, ETH (~2,805) matched the move, and majors like SOL (~129.47) and DOT (~2.34) posted modest strength. It’s a healthier tone than earlier in the month, but structure still looks like range-trading rather than trend resumption.
Rates drifted lower. The 10-year (4.067%) slipped modestly and the 30-year (4.72%) followed; bond markets appear comfortable with the Fed’s October cut and the return of macro data. Gold (~4,064) and silver (~49.99) softened, reflecting reduced haven demand, while crude (58.09) dropped again as demand indicators weakened. DXY (100.19) stayed pinned near 100; firm enough to matter but not strong enough to define trend.
Takeaway: Markets are balancing on a ledge. There’s just enough improvement to keep bulls engaged and just enough softness to keep bears confident. Direction will come from data, not sentiment.
Catalysts in view
Data normalization: With the shutdown behind us, macro prints are returning on schedule. Next week brings early inflation proxies and consumer data—after weeks in the dark, markets will overreact to even small deviations.
Fed reaction function: October’s cut is old news, but the Fed’s tone in upcoming speeches will matter. Clarity about December is scarce; policymakers want flexibility, but traders want commitment.
Liquidity & year-end flows: Hedge funds are de-grossing, CTAs are creeping back into neutral, and pension funds begin quarter-end positioning soon. Expect flows to dominate price action more than fundamentals.
Commodity & FX signals: Gold’s fade suggests reduced fear. Crude’s decline flags weakening demand. DXY near 100 signals global divergence remains a headwind to risk. None of these variables scream stress, but none scream acceleration either.
Why it matters: For the first time since September, macro data has teeth again. Any print that contradicts the Fed’s October pivot could yank the market sharply. Expect volatility spikes around data releases until the picture clarifies.
Risk Gauge
VIX (23.43): Volatility dropped sharply on the day, signaling hedge removal and short-term complacency. Still elevated relative to summer levels.
DXY (100.19): Flat; neither strengthening nor weakening trend—market waiting for catalysts.
10-Yr UST (4.067%): Slightly lower; bond market comfortable with the current policy path.
Gold (4,064): Slipped again; haven demand fading as shutdown risk fades.
Equities (SPY 659 / NDX 24,239): Healthy bounce, but still trading inside a multi-week range; breadth improving but fragile.
Crypto (BTC 85,861 / ETH 2,805): Constructive but still range-bound; no breakout signs yet.
Technical Note: Tape is balanced but narrow. Volatility compression is building under the surface, and with data back online, expansions can trigger fast. Trade the edges, keep position sizes modest, and respect levels. This is a transition zone, not a trend.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)