WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 11/15/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #26 — Saturday, November 15, 2025
The shutdown is over, and the lights are back on.
After seven weeks of blackout, federal agencies reopened and data collection resumed. Markets spent most of the week recalibrating, not reacting, because traders finally get real macro prints again next week. The Fed’s October cut still sets the backdrop, but the return of data means positioning will now face validation instead of drifting unchallenged.
Macro snapshot
Equities stabilized into week’s end. The S&P (671.93) and Nasdaq 100 (25,008) recorded small gains, a mild recovery after last week’s selling. Breadth improved slightly, helped by rotation into mid-caps, though volume stayed thin. This wasn’t accumulation, just a market shifting from rumor-driven to data-driven mode as the government reopened.
Crypto ended the week mixed. Bitcoin (~95,909) bounced slightly on Friday but is still below last week’s 101-110 K zone. ETH (~3,206) gained on the day but remains in a short-term downswing. Altcoins (SOL, DOT, ARB, OP) showed green daily prints but no meaningful higher-lows, just reactive buying after a weak midweek dip. Liquidity remains shallow and directionless. It’s a market waiting for macro clarity more than expressing any bullish conviction.
Rates drifted higher. The 10-year (4.148%) and 30-year (4.75%) yields upticked as Treasury auctions normalized. Gold (4,082) and silver (50.51) both sold off sharply after haven demand unwound, while crude (59.91) firmed on seasonal storage draws. DXY (99.27) stayed flat, neither risk-on nor risk-off, just waiting for incoming data.
Takeaway: Markets are transitioning from “narrative drift” to “data reaction.” With the reopening, traders finally shift from technical autopilot back to macro interpretation. Expect volatility: the first clean datasets in nearly two months will test every positioning assumption built during the blackout.
Catalysts in view
Data resumption: CPI, retail sales, and employment surveys restart next week. The market hasn’t had a real macro print since September—expect oversized reactions to even small deviations.
Fed recalibration: With October’s cut now fully absorbed, incoming inflation data will determine whether the FOMC signals follow-through in December or pauses. Real policy clarity returns only once data resumes.
Liquidity reset: CTAs and vol-targeting funds have rebuilt risk during the blackout. New data may force rebalancing, either adding fuel to the trend or snapping it.
Commodity & FX signals: Gold collapse (-2%) and crude strength (+2%) hint that recession fears eased, but DXY (~99.27) sticking firm signals global growth divergence is still a drag.
Why it matters: After weeks of drifting, the tape is about to get direction again. Data returning means positioning meets reality. Volatility will expand, and trend signals will sharpen quickly.
Risk Gauge
VIX (19.83): Lower on the week; hedges unwinding as shutdown fears disappear.
DXY (99.27): Flat; USD waiting for CPI to determine next leg.
10-Yr UST (4.148%): Slight rise as auctions normalize; supply remains a theme.
Gold (4,082): Bounce after heavy selloff; haven unwinding as data comes back online.
Equities (SPY 671.93 / NDX 25,008): Healthy bounce; breadth improving but not decisive.
Crypto (BTC 95,909 / ETH 3,206): Constructive potential base-building; volatility compressed and ready for expansion.
Technical Note: The tape is balanced but brittle. With macro data frozen, markets are running on muscle memory. Trade edges, fade over-extensions, and stay nimble. Conviction will return only when Washington reopens.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)