WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 11/1/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #24 — Saturday, November 1, 2025
October ended without drama but not without tension. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, striking a balanced tone that markets read as “wait-and-see.” The U.S. government shutdown dragged through another week, freezing key data and leaving traders to navigate on technicals and positioning rather than fresh macro guidance.
SNOW is nearing target.
Macro snapshot
Equities finished October modestly higher: the S&P added 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.5%, and the Russell 0.5% as investors rotated back into cyclicals after early-month jitters. Participation improved, though most of the buying looked mechanical: month-end rebalancing and systematic inflows rather than new conviction.
Crypto drifted. Bitcoin held the 110K zone after mid-month volatility, while ETH slipped under 3,900 as liquidity rotated to majors. Altcoins stayed heavy but orderly, suggesting consolidation rather than risk evacuation.
Rates quieted post-FOMC. The 10-year yield sat near 4.08%, the 30-year at 4.67%. Powell’s message—no rush to cut, no rush to hike—kept both bulls and bears contained. The dollar extended its bounce from mid-September, closing near 99.7 as relative-growth spreads continued to favor the U.S. Commodities split: gold eased to 4,002 and crude firmed to 61.15 on supply-risk bids.
Takeaway: With policy on pause and data on hold, markets are drifting inside their own echo chamber. Volatility is contained, but conviction is missing. Until Washington reopens and macro prints resume, expect price action to follow positioning, not fundamentals.
Catalysts in view
Shutdown Watch: No confirmed timeline for a resolution; each day adds uncertainty around November data continuity.
Fedspeak Rotation: Regional presidents and governors out next week to reinforce the “higher for longer, but patient” stance.
Treasury Refunding Announcement (Mon): Key test for supply absorption after Q4’s heavy issuance.
Corporate Earnings: Final stretch of Q3 reports—Apple, AMD, and energy majors wrapping up.
Global Data: Eurozone CPI and China PMIs early week may steer cross-asset flows while U.S. data stays dark.
Why it matters: With core U.S. data frozen, liquidity will anchor to global cues and bond auctions. The risk isn’t volatility from headlines, it’s drift and mispricing in thin tape. A shutdown resolution would instantly shift focus back to the growth-vs-inflation debate; until then, positioning will dominate.
Risk Gauge
VIX (17.44): Mild uptick into shutdown uncertainty; volatility still subdued versus realized ranges.
DXY (99.72): Dollar strength persisting since mid-September; funding demand and relative growth keep bid intact.
10-Yr UST (4.08%): Flat. Market treating 4% as fair value until new data breaks the stalemate.
Gold (4,002): Losing safe-haven bid as yields stabilize; still acts as quiet volatility hedge.
Equities (SPY 682 / NDX 25,858): Grinding higher; breadth improving but dependent on flow, not fundamentals.
Crypto (BTC 110,007 / ETH 3,864): Range-bound; awaiting macro clarity before next impulse.
Technical Note: Tape is balanced but brittle. Breadth’s recovery is encouraging, yet volume remains reactive. Until data returns, trade the edges: fade extremes, book profits fast, and respect range boundaries.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)