WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 10/4/2025

Actionable stock & crypto swing-trades—fresh every Saturday, zero noise.

Oct 05, 2025

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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET

Paid subscribers only · Issue #20 — Saturday, October 4, 2025

PANW, DDOG, and LRCX are nearing target. I kept the NOW and INTU charts but changed their setups since they continue to look ripe for a reversal. I have added new setups to replace the others that never triggered below.

Macro snapshot

U.S. government shutdown (began Oct 1): Congress failed to pass full-year funding and a partial shutdown started Oct 1, creating operational risk across agencies and adding headline volatility to data flows.
ADP private payrolls (Oct 1): private payrolls fell ~32k in September, signaling near-term weakness in hiring separate from the official BLS release.
BLS jobs-report timing / data risk: because of the shutdown, the official BLS NFP timetable and some data releases are at risk of delay or noisier revisions. Markets are treating payroll windows as higher-noise events.
Market reaction (this week): mixed tape with pockets of equity resilience but elevated attention to safe-havens (gold, cash) and to yield/dollar moves as traders price the fiscal/data uncertainty.

Takeaway: this week’s story was headline noise > fresh macro trend. The shutdown and ADP weakness inject one-off uncertainty into the labor narrative. That makes near-term data (and any rescheduled BLS releases) higher-risk for volatile one-day moves; position smaller and prefer clean technical triggers.

Catalysts in view

Ongoing shutdown developments (daily): any House/Senate progress, stopgap bills, or widening agency furloughs will change fiscal risk and either compress or amplify market volatility.
Why to watch: a longer shutdown raises recession risk, delays data, and can flip risk appetite fast.
Official BLS payroll timing / any rescheduled NFP release: watch for BLS notices on timing or revisions and the eventual release when it happens.
Why to watch: payrolls are the highest-leverage single print for Fed expectations — a noisy or delayed print amplifies directional swings.
High-frequency private data & regional Fed surveys (next 7 days): with some gov data at risk, markets will lean on private indicators and regional Fed reads for real-time activity.
Why to watch: these will be the go-to proxies for growth/momentum while official releases are uncertain.
Earnings & Fed speakers: continued corporate results and Fed commentary will be the second-order drivers that determine whether the cut narrative sticks or gets reversed.
Why to watch: earnings can reallocate flows; Fed nuance can reprice rate expectations quickly.

Why it matters: These items together create a high-noise, event-driven environment. A prolonged shutdown increases recession and data-delay risk; any change to NFP timing turns payrolls into a headline event with an outsized chance of one-day gaps. Private activity and regional surveys will temporarily substitute for official data and shape near-term growth expectations. Earnings and Fed commentary will be the swing factors that consolidate or reverse market positioning — i.e., they determine whether the market treats the recent dovish tilt as durable or as a short-lived repricing. In short: expect fast, headline-driven moves; size down, use limit/buy-stop entries, and pre-define trims/hedges around these catalysts.

Risk Gauge

VIX: mid-teens (~15-17). Volatility contained but the shutdown raises the odds of quick spikes into headline windows.
DXY / USD: rangebound (~97-98) but sensitive to safe-haven flows if fiscal noise grows.
10-yr UST: trading around the low-4% band (watch for intraday jumps on headline or payroll surprises).
Data / liquidity risk: the shutdown increases the probability of delayed/noisy official prints and that raises the chance of gap fills and one-day directional moves.

Risk read: conditional risk-on but headline-sensitive. The desk view: equities can rally on a dovish policy backdrop, but the shutdown + noisy payroll windows materially increase the odds of volatile one-day reversals. Trade smaller, use limit/buy-stop entries, hold 1R per trade, and pre-define trims/hedges around any rescheduled BLS prints or major fiscal headlines.

Fresh Trade Set-ups

(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)