WEEKEND TRADE SHEET for 10/25/2025
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WEEKEND TRADE SHEET
Paid subscribers only · Issue #23 — Saturday, October 25, 2025
NOTE: Keeping the new 2% minimum rule in mind (mentioned last Saturday that going forward we would move our stop loss up to 2% above our entry once price rallied 10%) I am adjusting some of the stop losses higher than that. This guarantees that all but a few of our current open equity positions will result in a profit. Please be sure to check the open trades below and adjust your stop loss accordingly.
This week closed on a steadier note after last Friday’s crash shook traders awake. Equities clawed back losses, yields steadied near 4%, and crypto spent most of the week in sideways digestion. Positioning leans cautious, but relief is visible in volatility and breadth.
Macro snapshot
Equities bounced from oversold conditions, with the S&P and Nasdaq both logging solid recoveries. Breadth improved modestly, but leadership narrowed to large-cap tech, suggesting buyers were more defensive than bold. The Russell’s 1.2% pop hints at rotation attempts, yet conviction stayed thin.
Crypto mirrored the equity tone: Bitcoin hovered around 111K after a choppy midweek pullback, while altcoins underperformed, showing lingering rotation out of riskier tokens. ETH’s slight dip reinforced that capital prefers liquidity over speculation for now.
Rates markets stabilized. The 10-year yield anchored near 4.00% and MOVE dropped almost 7%, a sign that rate volatility is cooling even as forward inflation expectations remain sticky. The dollar stayed flat near 99, showing no panic in FX space. Commodities softened: gold eased to 4111, silver drifted lower, and WTI slipped toward 61.8 as traders reassessed global demand.
Takeaway: Markets are catching their breath, not sprinting. Volatility compression and range reversion suggest stabilization, but not conviction. Next week’s catalysts will decide if this is base-building or just a pause before another leg down.
Catalysts in view
Tuesday: U.S. Consumer Confidence (Oct) – key for gauging post-shutdown sentiment.
Wednesday: FOMC speakers rotation + weekly crude inventories.
Thursday: Advance Q3 GDP (first estimate) and weekly jobless claims.
Friday: Core PCE and Employment Cost Index – inflation and wage pressures in focus.
Ongoing: Corporate earnings season (mega-cap techs reporting) and geopolitical headlines (Middle East and energy supply watch).
Why it matters: The data cluster will test whether the Fed can stay patient as growth cools and inflation lingers. Strong GDP or wage prints could reignite rate fears, while softness might embolden the “pivot” narrative that fueled this week’s bounce.
Risk Gauge
VIX (16.37): Down sharply, -5.4%. Volatility compression supports short-term calm but may invite complacency.
DXY (98.94): Flat. No clear risk-off demand; dollar stability aids global liquidity sentiment.
10-Yr UST (4.00%): Anchored. Market treating 4% as equilibrium zone; break above would reprice equity risk.
Gold (4111): Off 0.35%. Safe-haven bids fading as fear moderates; still a key hedge if yields rise.
Equities (SPY 677 / NDX 25,358): Solid rebound from prior week’s shock. Momentum neutral to mildly positive.
Crypto (BTC 111,734 / ETH 3950): Flat overall. Rotation toward Bitcoin continues; altcoin stress signals risk aversion within the sector.
Technical Note: Breadth recovery remains shallow and volume reactive, not proactive. Tactical setups favored over directional conviction until the tape proves it can hold above this week’s pivot zones.
Fresh Trade Set-ups
(Aim: ≥ 20 % move in 14-30 days; longs ▲, shorts ▼)