Walmart Beat and Guided Down, Private Credit Cracked, and Trump Is Deciding Whether to Bomb Iran – Market Breakdown #182
S&P fell 0.28% to 6,862. Walmart guided below consensus. Blue Owl froze redemptions and dragged all of private credit down 5-10%. Oil surged on Iran strike fears. Deere ripped 12%.
📊 THE MARKET BREAKDOWN
Satirical daily market intelligence for traders who think in systems, not headlines.
Issue #182 | February 19, 2026
🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
Forked Feed says: Walmart reported Q4 revenue of $190.7 billion, up 5.6%, beating the $190.49 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS of $0.74, beating the $0.73 consensus. U.S. comparable sales rose 4.6%. E-commerce sales surged 27% for the 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit digital growth. Grocery inflation at Walmart was 0.6%, lower than the national CPI. The company announced a $30 billion buyback replacing the previous $20 billion authorization, plus its 53rd consecutive dividend increase. A clean sweep. And then came the full-year guidance: $2.75-$2.85 EPS versus the $2.96 Wall Street expected. The stock immediately cratered 3.6% in premarket. Analysts scrambled. Then D.A. Davidson’s Michael Baker published a note saying “any weakness on that guide should be bought” because Walmart is “setting a beatable bar” under its brand-new CEO John Furner, who started the job three weeks ago and is doing what every new CEO does: sandbagging the forecast so he can beat it later and look like a genius. By the opening bell, the stock was green. By the close, it was down 1.4% because the market remembered that the world’s largest retailer just told you the American consumer is not doing as well as your portfolio suggests, but only after it first decided that didn’t matter, and then decided it did. The stock switched from the NYSE to the Nasdaq in December. It hit $1 trillion in market cap earlier this month. And its new CEO’s first public act was to tell Wall Street that profits are going to be lower than they thought. Welcome to the corner office, John.
Forked Feed says: Blue Owl Capital announced it would permanently restrict investor withdrawals from its retail-focused private credit fund OBDC II, reversing a plan to resume redemptions this quarter. The word “permanently” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. They sold $1.4 billion in loans at 99.7% of par, which Blue Owl co-president Craig Packer called “a strong statement” about the quality of their portfolio. The market did not agree that this was a strong statement. Blue Owl fell 5.9%. Apollo dropped 6%. Blackstone dropped 5%. TPG fell 8%. KKR fell 4%. Ares fell. Everything with the words “private credit” in its annual report fell. Mohamed El-Erian, the man whose job is to say things that sound ominous on CNBC, asked whether this was “a canary in a coal mine moment” for private credit. The fund’s largest sector exposure is software at 13%, which is the same sector that’s down 32% from its October highs and currently being existentially threatened by AI. So to summarize: a private credit fund that lent heavily to software companies has permanently locked investors out of their money, sold $1.4 billion in assets to pay people back, and the CEO says everything is fine. This is what the financial industry calls “an orderly process” and what everyone else calls “you can’t get your money out.” The Blue Owl structured notes tied to the firm and held by retail investors were trading below 50 cents on the dollar by Thursday afternoon. Orderly.
Forked Feed says: WTI crude surged to $66.71, up 2.6%, its highest level since August. Brent hit $71.49. Two U.S. carrier strike groups are now parked in the Persian Gulf. Trump said he’ll make a decision on strikes within 10 days, which in Trump-time means anywhere from Saturday to never, but the options market is pricing it like Saturday. One-third of all waterborne crude on the planet passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has made it very clear it will retaliate if attacked. Airlines got slaughtered: American Airlines fell 5.3%. The entire sector is now doing math on what $80+ oil does to their margins. Energy stocks surged, with Occidental Petroleum jumping 8.8% on earnings and the war premium. The XLE energy ETF is up 22% year-to-date, which makes it the best-performing sector in America by a country mile, and the reason is that the U.S. might go to war with a country that sits on top of 12% of the world’s proven oil reserves. The Fed just floated rate hikes yesterday because inflation is too high. Now oil is ripping on the possibility of a military conflict that would send energy prices parabolic. If you wanted a scenario specifically designed to make the Fed’s job impossible, you couldn’t do better than “the economy is running too hot AND we might bomb a major oil exporter.” Gold bounced to $5,009 on safe-haven demand, because apparently when you can’t decide whether to buy stocks, bonds, or crypto, you buy the shiny rock that’s been working for 5,000 years.
Deere Surged 12% Because It Turns Out That When Civilization Collapses, You Still Need Tractors
Forked Feed says: Deere reported Q1 EPS of $2.42 versus the $2.02-$2.11 consensus range, which is a 15-20% beat on a company that makes tractors. Revenue hit $9.61 billion, up 13% year-over-year. The company raised its full-year net income forecast to $4.5-$5.0 billion from $4.0-$4.75 billion. CEO John May declared that 2026 “represents the bottom of the current cycle,” which is CEO-speak for “buy this stock because it only gets better from here.” Construction and small agriculture demand are recovering. The stock surged 11.6%, its best day in ages, and helped limit the Dow’s losses on a day when almost everything else was red. The irony is thick: on a day when software stocks kept dying, private credit cracked, airlines got torched, and the world inched closer to a Middle Eastern military conflict, the biggest winner in the S&P 500 was a 189-year-old company that makes combines and excavators. The AI revolution has killed software valuations, threatened knowledge work, and rattled every white-collar industry on the planet, but it cannot replace a guy on a John Deere plowing a field in Iowa. Deere is up 30% year-to-date. ServiceNow is down 31%. The lesson is clear: bet on machines that move dirt, not machines that move data.
Forked Feed says: The S&P slipped 0.28% to 6,862. The Dow lost 267 points to 49,395. The Nasdaq fell 0.31% to 22,683. Yesterday’s rally lasted exactly one session before reality reasserted itself, which has been the pattern for six consecutive weeks now: rally, fail, rally, fail, like a stock market doing interval training. Booking Holdings cratered 6.1% despite beating estimates, because the AI-will-eat-travel narrative has now consumed a quarter of its market cap in 2026. Carvana, processing last night’s 20%+ after-hours implosion, somehow only closed down about 6% during the regular session because apparently some people saw a used car retailer with a Gotham City Research fraud allegation, insider selling, and a GPU miss and thought “buying opportunity.” Etsy jumped 22% on the Depop-to-eBay sale. DoorDash rose 7% as the market digested last night’s miraculous conference call reversal from -10% to +14%. Software continued bleeding: Salesforce down over 1%, Intuit down 2%, Cadence down 3%. The software sector is now being called a “persistent sore spot” by financial outlets, which is the same language oncologists use. Jobless claims fell to 206,000, the biggest weekly drop since November, because the labor market refuses to cooperate with anyone who wants rate cuts. The trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion versus $56 billion expected, because America still loves importing things even when there are tariffs on everything. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 16.3, beating expectations. The data was fine. The vibes were not.
🔎 Today’s Focus: The Day Everything Hit at Once
Walmart guided down. Private credit cracked. Oil surged on Iran strike fears. Software kept dying. And the S&P fell 0.28%.
That’s actually remarkable restraint. The market absorbed a weak forward guide from the world’s largest retailer, a cascading panic across the $1.7 trillion private credit industry, a 2.6% oil spike driven by the possibility of U.S. military strikes on Iran, and continued carnage in software, and the S&P only fell 19 points. The Dow’s 267-point decline was the sharpest of the three indexes, dragged lower by Walmart’s guidance and the broader “cautious consumer” narrative.
But the losses were selective, not systemic. Deere surged 12% on a blowout earnings beat and raised guidance, single-handedly preventing a worse Dow session. Energy stocks rallied across the board as oil hit seven-month highs. DoorDash gained 7% on last night’s after-hours reversal. Etsy jumped 22% on the Depop sale. The Russell 2000 ticked slightly higher. The damage was concentrated in specific pockets: private credit and alt managers (Blue Owl, Apollo, Blackstone, TPG, KKR all down 4-10%), airlines (American -5.3%), travel (Booking -6.1%), and software (the usual suspects, down 1-3%).
The most significant development may be the private credit sell-off. Blue Owl’s decision to permanently freeze redemptions on a retail fund is not, by itself, a systemic event. But the speed with which it infected every major alternative asset manager suggests the market is deeply nervous about what’s lurking in private credit portfolios, particularly those exposed to software, the sector that’s down 32% from its highs and facing an existential AI disruption narrative. El-Erian’s “canary in the coal mine” comment will echo through the financial press for days.
Forked Feed says: This was the day when the market ran out of things to ignore. For weeks, the S&P has absorbed software bear markets, hawkish Fed minutes, guidance cuts, and geopolitical noise by rotating into banks, industrials, and energy. Today it tried to do that again and mostly succeeded, but the Blue Owl panic opened a new front. Private credit has been the darling of the post-GFC financial system: $1.7 trillion in assets, marketed aggressively to retail investors, concentrated in the same software and tech sectors that are now in freefall. When Blue Owl says “we’re permanently restricting redemptions” and “we sold $1.4 billion in assets at par,” the translation is “we need to raise cash and we can’t let you leave.” That’s not a crisis. But it’s the kind of thing that precedes a crisis if it spreads. Meanwhile, oil is at seven-month highs because the Commander-in-Chief is publicly deliberating whether to bomb Iran while two carrier strike groups idle in the Gulf. The Fed yesterday floated rate hikes because inflation is too sticky. Now oil is spiking on war risk, which would make inflation stickier, which would make rate hikes more likely, which would crush the market. This is the doom loop that nobody wants to talk about but everyone is pricing in at the margins. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP, PCE inflation data, and possibly a Supreme Court ruling on whether Trump’s tariffs are constitutional. Buckle up.
⚡ The Setup
SPY 64.48 | BTC 67,424 | US10Y 4.067 | DXY 97.98
SPY settled at 684.48, putting the S&P at approximately 6,862 after a 0.28% decline that ended a three-session winning streak. The index is now 19 points below the 6,881 close from yesterday and further from the 6,900 resistance level that has rejected every rally attempt in 2026. The S&P tested 6,900 intraday Wednesday and was immediately sold. Today’s pullback confirms the pattern: the ceiling holds. Support sits at 6,843 (Tuesday’s close) and 6,780 (the intraday low from earlier in the week). Friday is the heaviest catalyst day of 2026 so far: Q4 GDP at 8:30 AM (consensus 2.5%), PCE inflation data simultaneously (headline expected 2.8% YoY, core expected 3.0%), and a possible Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs. A hot PCE print combined with an “upheld” tariff ruling would be the worst-case combo for equities. A cool PCE plus a tariff strike-down could be the catalyst the S&P needs to finally clear 6,900. JPMorgan’s trading desk has circulated scenario analysis showing a wide range of S&P moves depending on the Court’s decision. The market is positioned for anything, which usually means it’s positioned for nothing.
BTC traded at $67,424, a modest bounce from yesterday’s sub-$66,000 levels but still deeply in the red on any meaningful timeframe. The cryptocurrency is down roughly 47% from its October all-time high of $126,210. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $66,000 during Thursday’s session before recovering. The correlation with software continues to hold, but today BTC showed some decoupling from equities by stabilizing while stocks fell. Whether that’s a floor or just a pause before the next leg down depends entirely on Friday’s data. A hot PCE would be devastating for the “rate cuts are coming” thesis that crypto depends on. A cool print could spark a relief rally. Bitcoin dominance sits at 58.88%, meaning altcoins are still bleeding faster. ETH fell below $1,960. The total crypto market cap held at $705 billion. The FOMC minutes’ mention of possible rate hikes, combined with zero institutional bid and persistent ETF outflows, keeps the path of least resistance pointed down. The $65,000 level remains the line between “consolidation” and “we need to talk about crypto winter.”
The 10-year yield eased to 4.067% after rising to 4.09% yesterday on the hawkish FOMC minutes. Today’s pullback came despite oil surging 2.6%, which normally pushes yields higher via inflation expectations. The countervailing force was safe-haven demand driven by Iran fears and the broader equity sell-off. Treasuries have now been rising for three consecutive sessions, and the bond market is caught between two powerful forces: the Fed floating rate hikes (bearish for bonds) and growing geopolitical risk (bullish for bonds). Tomorrow’s PCE data will break the tie. Core PCE is expected at 3.0% YoY, which would be the first reading at that level since mid-2024. A print at or above 3% would validate the hawks who mentioned rate hikes in the minutes and could push the 10-year back above 4.10%. A print below 2.8% would be a game-changer and likely send yields sharply lower. The bond market is holding its breath.
DXY firmed to 97.98, its highest close in days and approaching the top of the 2026 range near 98.00. The dollar is on track for its best week since mid-November, driven by the hawkish FOMC minutes and strong economic data (jobless claims at 206K, Philly Fed beating expectations). A break above 98 would put significant pressure on gold, emerging market currencies, and commodity-linked assets. The dollar’s strength is also a headwind for multinational earnings, which matters with Nvidia reporting next Wednesday. If the PCE comes in hot tomorrow and the Supreme Court upholds the IEEPA tariffs, DXY could push through 98.50, which would be the strongest dollar reading since January. Gold bounced to $4,995 on safe-haven demand from Iran fears, but the stronger dollar is capping the rally. Silver recovered to $78.35. The precious metals are being pulled in two directions: war fears say buy, dollar strength says sell.
🧩 Market Archetype: The Pressure Cooker
The S&P is flat for the year. The Nasdaq is down 2%. Software is in a bear market. Private credit is cracking. Oil is at seven-month highs on war risk. The Fed is floating rate hikes. And tomorrow brings Q4 GDP, PCE inflation, and possibly the most consequential Supreme Court ruling for markets since the ACA decision. This is a Pressure Cooker: a market where every major input is converging on the same 24-hour window and the current price reflects a stalemate between forces that are about to collide. The S&P’s 6,850-6,900 range has held for weeks because the bull arguments (strong earnings, low unemployment, broadening rotation) and the bear arguments (software destruction, Fed hawkishness, geopolitical risk, private credit stress) have been roughly equal in force. Tomorrow’s data will tilt the balance. A hot PCE validates the Fed hawks and kills the rate cut narrative. A cool PCE gives the bulls ammunition. A tariff strike-down is risk-on. An upheld ruling is risk-off. The range will break. The question is which direction.
💧 Flow Pulse
The rotation that has defined 2026 intensified today, with clear winners and losers separated by sector, not by market cap. Energy was the standout, with the XLE up 22% year-to-date and oil and gas producers rallying across the board. Occidental Petroleum surged 8.8% on earnings plus the Iran premium. Exxon and Chevron both advanced. The war risk is now a permanent feature of energy pricing until Trump either strikes or doesn’t, and “within 10 days” means energy remains bid through at least the end of February.
Industrials caught a massive tailwind from Deere’s 12% surge, which was the single best earnings reaction in the S&P 500 this week. The “profit trough is near” narrative for cyclicals is gaining momentum, with construction and small agriculture demand recovering. Caterpillar, CNH Industrial, and other machinery names traded higher in sympathy. The old economy is winning 2026 in a way that nobody predicted.
Private credit and alternative asset managers were the day’s biggest casualties. Blue Owl’s redemption freeze triggered a sector-wide rout: Apollo -6%, Blackstone -5%, TPG -8%, KKR -4%, Ares down sharply. The sell-off extends a brutal 2025-2026 stretch for alt managers, with Blue Owl down 36% in 2025 and another 27% this year. The contagion risk is real because private credit portfolios are concentrated in software and tech, the same sectors under AI disruption pressure. Redemption requests at Blue Owl’s tech-focused fund (OTIC) surged to 15% of NAV last quarter. The question is whether other funds face similar pressure.
Software continued its relentless decline. Salesforce fell over 1%, Intuit dropped 2%, Cadence slid 3%. The Mistral AI CEO told CNBC that “more than 50% of enterprise software could be replaced by AI,” which is the kind of quote that makes software investors physically ill. Booking Holdings fell 6.1% on AI disruption fears despite beating estimates. EPAM Systems crashed 17% on in-line guidance. The AI disruption narrative is now consuming entire sub-sectors, from cybersecurity to travel to IT services.
Forked Feed says: The flows are telling a simple story: old economy good, new economy bad, private credit scary. Deere +12%, Occidental +8.8%, Etsy +22%, DoorDash +7%. Blue Owl -6%, Blackstone -5%, Booking -6%, EPAM -17%, airlines -5%. Energy is the cleanest trade in the market because wars are inflationary and tractors don’t get disrupted by ChatGPT. Private credit is the new worry because $1.7 trillion in assets is concentrated in the exact sectors that are getting destroyed, and the first domino just fell when Blue Owl told retail investors they can never get their money out. The software bear market is metastasizing from stock prices into credit quality, which is how sector corrections become financial stress events. This isn’t 2008. But it rhymes with the early chapters of every credit scare since: aggressive lending to a trendy sector, valuations collapse, lenders scramble for exits, redemptions spike, and someone eventually uses the phrase “this is orderly” when it clearly isn’t. Tomorrow’s PCE data will determine whether the Fed adds fuel to this fire or throws water on it.
🔮 Forked Forecast
Bull Case (20%): Friday’s PCE comes in cooler than expected (below 2.8% headline), giving the market permission to ignore the Fed’s rate hike language. Q4 GDP prints at or above 2.5%, confirming a resilient economy. The Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs, triggering a relief rally in consumer stocks and small caps. The S&P breaks through 6,900 and targets 7,000 on a wave of tariff-relief optimism and rate-cut repricing. Oil pulls back as Iran tensions de-escalate. Private credit fears stay contained. Nvidia anticipation lifts semis.
Base Case (50%): PCE comes in roughly in-line (2.8% headline, 3.0% core), confirming sticky inflation but not accelerating it. GDP meets the 2.5% consensus. The Supreme Court either delays the tariff ruling to February 24-25 or issues a narrow decision that doesn’t dramatically change the status quo. The S&P trades 6,830-6,880 (SPY 683-688), continuing to oscillate within the range that has held for weeks. Oil stays elevated but doesn’t spike further. Private credit sell-off stabilizes but doesn’t reverse. The market treads water into Nvidia earnings on Wednesday.
Bear Case (30%): Core PCE hits 3.0% or higher, validating the Fed hawks and killing the rate-cut narrative. The Supreme Court upholds IEEPA tariffs, removing a potential relief valve. Trump signals imminent military action on Iran, sending oil toward $70+ WTI. The Blue Owl contagion spreads to other private credit funds with similar software exposure. The S&P fails at 6,850 and slides toward 6,780-6,800. Software resumes its freefall. Bitcoin breaks $65,000. The doom loop of “hot inflation + war risk + rate hike fears + private credit stress” becomes the dominant narrative into Nvidia week.
Triggers to Watch:PCE data (Friday 8:30 AM): Headline expected 2.8% YoY, core expected 3.0%. This is the single most important data point of the week. A hot print changes everything.
Q4 GDP (Friday 8:30 AM): Consensus 2.5% annualized, down from 4.4% in Q3. A miss would raise recession fears; a beat confirms the “too hot” narrative.
Supreme Court tariff ruling (Friday, possible): Feb 20 is a scheduled opinion day. JPMorgan has circulated scenario analysis for the S&P’s reaction. Additional opinion days on Feb 24-25.
Iran military timeline: Trump said “within 10 days.” Two carrier strike groups are in position. Oil’s reaction to any escalation will be immediate and violent.
Private credit contagion: Watch other BDC and private credit fund NAVs. If redemption requests spike at Blackstone, Apollo, or Ares funds, the sell-off deepens.
Nvidia (February 25): Five trading days away. The Meta deal raised the bar. Every session between now and then is a pricing event.
Bitcoin $65,000: Tested today, held. A break below opens $61,000 and resets the narrative to “crypto winter.”
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💬 Final Thought
The market absorbed five separate shocks today and only fell 0.28%. That’s either resilience or denial, and the answer arrives tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM.
Walmart told the market that profits will be lower than expected. The world’s best-in-class retailer, at all-time highs, with a $1 trillion market cap, guided below consensus on the very first earnings report under its new CEO. The stock dropped, recovered, and ended roughly flat, because D.A. Davidson said it’s “a beatable bar.” That’s the market in February 2026: the largest company in the world lowers its outlook and the immediate reaction is “they’re sandbagging.”
Blue Owl permanently locked investors out of a private credit fund and sold $1.4 billion in assets, and the entire alternative investment sector had its worst day of the year. The loans sold were 13% software, the same sector down 32% from its highs. El-Erian called it a canary. The market called it “an orderly process.” One of those descriptions is correct and we won’t know which one until the next fund gates.
Trump said he’ll decide on Iran strikes within 10 days. Oil surged. Airlines cratered. Energy stocks ripped. The Fed, which floated rate hikes yesterday because inflation is too high, is now watching oil prices spike on war risk, which would make inflation higher, which would make rate hikes more likely, which would crash the market. This is the doom loop.
And tomorrow: Q4 GDP, PCE inflation, and possibly a Supreme Court ruling on whether Trump’s tariffs are constitutional. Headline PCE is expected at 2.8%. Core PCE is expected at 3.0%. GDP is expected at 2.5%. The Court has scheduled February 20 as an opinion day, with additional dates on February 24 and 25. JPMorgan’s trading desk has distributed scenario analysis across four possible outcomes.
The S&P is flat for the year. The Nasdaq is down 2%. Software is in a bear market. Private credit is cracking. Oil is at seven-month highs. The Fed is confused. Iran is in the crosshairs. And tomorrow the Supreme Court might invalidate the tariff regime that’s collected $133.5 billion since inception. Friday is not just another trading day. It’s the kind of session that makes or breaks a quarter.
That’s all for issue #182. The S&P fell 0.28% to 6,862, its first decline in four sessions, as the market struggled to digest Walmart’s cautious FY guidance ($2.75-$2.85 EPS vs $2.96 expected), a cascading sell-off in private credit after Blue Owl permanently froze investor redemptions, and oil surging to seven-month highs on U.S.-Iran military strike fears. Deere surged 12% on a blowout beat and raised full-year guidance, declaring 2026 “the bottom of the cycle.” DoorDash gained 7% on its conference call reversal. Etsy jumped 22% on selling Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion. Booking fell 6.1% on AI disruption fears. Airlines got crushed (American -5.3%) as WTI hit $66.71. Blue Owl’s redemption freeze triggered a sector-wide panic: Apollo -6%, Blackstone -5%, TPG -8%, KKR -4%. El-Erian asked if it’s a “canary in the coal mine” for private credit. Jobless claims fell to 206K, the largest weekly drop since November, confirming the labor market remains too strong for rate cuts. Friday brings the most loaded data calendar of 2026: Q4 GDP and PCE inflation at 8:30 AM, a possible Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, and the shadow of potential U.S. military strikes on Iran. Core PCE is expected at 3.0%, which would be the highest reading since mid-2024 and would validate the “several” Fed officials who floated rate hikes in Wednesday’s minutes. The Supreme Court has scheduled February 20 as an opinion day, with the tariff case (Learning Resources v. Trump) potentially among the decisions released. If both PCE is hot and tariffs are upheld, Friday could be the worst session of 2026. If PCE cools and tariffs fall, it could be the best. The S&P is flat for the year, the range is tight, and the pressure cooker is about to blow.
-- Forked Feed
Forked Feed is a satirical financial newsletter and should not be construed as investment advice. We're just here to point out the absurdity. Past performance of our snark does not guarantee future sarcasm.
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