The S&P Rallied, the Fed Whispered "Hike," and Carvana Died After Hours – Market Breakdown #181
S&P jumped 0.56% to 6,881. The Fed minutes floated rate hikes. Palo Alto sank 7%. Carvana cratered 20%+ after hours. DoorDash missed then reversed +14%.
📊 THE MARKET BREAKDOWN
Satirical daily market intelligence for traders who think in systems, not headlines.
Issue #181 | February 18, 2026
🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
Forked Feed says: The FOMC minutes dropped at 2:00 PM and the market immediately pared its gains because the Federal Reserve, which has spent the last four months pausing rate cuts, decided to casually mention that some of its members think rates might need to go UP. Not pause. Not hold. Up. “Several participants” suggested rate hikes could be appropriate if inflation remains stubbornly above target. Bloomberg called it “surprisingly wary.” That’s Bloomberg-speak for “the Fed is genuinely confused about what to do next.” The minutes also revealed that “a vast majority” of officials believe downside risks to employment have moderated, while persistent inflation risk “remained meaningful.” Two dissenters, Governors Miran and Waller, voted for a cut at the January meeting, because even inside the Fed there is a full spectrum from “we should cut” to “we might need to hike” to “let’s just sit here and watch.” Powell’s term ends in May, and Trump is expected to name a replacement in the coming weeks. So the Fed can’t agree on whether the next move is a cut, a hold, or a hike, and the chair is a lame duck. The market initially sold off on the minutes, then decided it didn’t care, which is exactly how the S&P has processed every piece of news for the last month: panic, absorb, shrug, close flat to slightly green. The 10-year yield popped to 4.09% on the hawkish tone, because if there’s one thing the bond market takes seriously, it’s the phrase “rate hike” appearing in an FOMC document for the first time since 2023.
Forked Feed says: After yesterday’s 100-point intraday round trip that ended with a 7-point gain, today the S&P actually committed to a direction and went up. The index rose 0.56% to close at 6,881, its highest close in weeks and within spitting distance of the 6,900 ceiling that has rejected every rally attempt in 2026. The Nasdaq jumped 0.78% to 22,754. The Dow added 129 points to 49,663. About 320 stocks in the S&P rose. The software ETF (IGV) bounced 1.3%, which technically counts as its best day in a while, though in the same way that going from -32% to -31% from the highs counts as a recovery. Chipmakers climbed 1%. Nvidia rose 1.6% on the Meta deal tailwind. Amazon gained nearly 2% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square revealed it grew its Amazon stake by 65% in Q4, because when a nine-day losing streak wipes out $450 billion in market cap, billionaire hedge fund managers see “opportunity” and the rest of us see “a stock that’s down 13% on the year.” Palantir gained 1.8% on a Mizuho upgrade with a $195 price target. Wingstop surged 14% on an earnings beat. Analog Devices jumped 6% on strong demand from industrial and data center customers. This was the market’s best day in over a week and it was powered by one semiconductor deal, one activist position, and the collective decision to pretend the FOMC minutes didn’t contain the word “hike.”
Forked Feed says: Palo Alto reported $1.03 EPS versus the 94 cents expected. Revenue came in at $2.59 billion versus $2.58 billion expected. Next-Gen Security ARR grew 33% to $6.3 billion. It beat every metric. It also raised its full-year revenue guidance to $11.28-$11.31 billion, blowing past the $10.5 billion consensus. And the stock dropped 7%. Down as much as 10% intraday. Because none of that mattered once investors saw the Q3 EPS guide of 78-80 cents versus the 92 cents expected, and the full-year EPS cut from $3.87 to $3.65-$3.70. The culprit is the $25 billion CyberArk acquisition, which closed February 11 and is diluting near-term margins. CEO Nikesh Arora defended the strategy by noting that “platformization is accelerating due to AI” and that customers are consolidating their security stacks. Wall Street responded by cutting price targets and selling the stock into a 7% hole. This is the software sector in 2026: you can grow revenue 15%, beat every estimate, raise your top-line guide by $800 million, and your stock will still get obliterated because your EPS guide came in 12 cents light. The cybersecurity company that spent $28 billion on acquisitions in two months is now being punished for the crime of actually integrating them. Palo Alto is down about 17% from its 52-week high. Its CEO says cybersecurity is immune from AI disruption. The market says nothing is immune from anything.
Carvana Crashed 20%+ After Hours Because the Used Car Vending Machine Finally Ran Out of Quarters
Forked Feed says: After the bell, Carvana reported Q4 revenue of $5.6 billion, beating estimates by $360 million. Retail units sold hit 163,522, up 43% year-over-year. Record quarterly net income of $951 million. Sounds great, right? The stock dropped 20-24% because adjusted EBITDA came in at $511 million versus the $536 million expected, and gross profit per unit plunged $255 to $3,076. That’s two consecutive quarters of GPU decline, which is exactly the metric that Carvana bulls pointed to as proof the turnaround was real. Worse, the company’s forward guidance was described as “vague,” with CEO Ernie Garcia III offering only that Carvana “expects significant growth” in 2026 “assuming the environment remains stable.” That’s not guidance. That’s a fortune cookie. Remember, this is the same company that Gotham City Research accused of overstating earnings by $1 billion through undisclosed related-party transactions with entities controlled by the CEO’s father. Insiders sold $10 million+ in shares at $393-$418 just sixteen days before tonight’s report. The stock is down roughly 30% from its January high. This is the biggest single-session drop since December 2022, back when Carvana was flirting with bankruptcy. The turnaround narrative just took a wrecking ball to the face.
Forked Feed says: DoorDash reported Q4 EPS of 48 cents versus the 59 cents expected. Revenue of $3.96 billion missed the $3.99 billion estimate. Q1 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $675-$775 million came in well below the $800 million consensus. The stock immediately dropped 10%. Then CEO Tony Xu got on the earnings call and started talking about building “a single platform” to unify DoorDash, Deliveroo, and Wolt, called it a “massive and expensive undertaking,” mentioned that he chose not to make the codebase “less malleable to incorporate AI” because “that could lead to disastrous results,” announced a $5 billion buyback, and the stock reversed to +14%. Fourteen percent. On a miss. On weak guidance. Because total orders grew 32% to 903 million, marketplace GOV jumped 39% to $29.7 billion, and apparently the market decided that revenue growth and volume matter more than profitability. Meanwhile, Etsy jumped 16% after announcing it’s selling Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion, because the best thing a company can do in 2026 is sell the thing it overpaid for five years ago. And Figma surged 13% on $304 million in revenue (up 40% YoY) and a net dollar retention rate of 136%, proving that not all software is dead, some of it is merely in the ICU with promising vital signs.
🔎 Today’s Focus: The Relief Rally With an Asterisk
The S&P 500 rose 38 points. The FOMC minutes contained the phrase “rate hike.” Both of those things happened on the same day.
For the first time in over a week, U.S. equities posted a convincing green session. The S&P climbed 0.56% to 6,881, the Nasdaq added 0.78% to 22,754, and 320 of the 500 stocks in the index rose. The software ETF bounced 1.3% after weeks of relentless selling. Chipmakers gained 1%. Nvidia was up 1.6% on the Meta deal afterglow. Amazon rose 2% on Ackman’s increased position. The market finally caught a bid.
Then at 2:00 PM, the FOMC minutes landed and the asterisk arrived. “Several” Fed officials suggested rate hikes could be necessary if inflation remains above target. The market immediately pared gains, with the S&P pulling back from session highs. The 10-year yield rose to 4.09%. But the selling was brief and contained, and the index held most of its advance through the close.
The surface story is encouraging: tech is bouncing, breadth is broadening, and the AI disruption panic may be finding a floor. Palo Alto fell 7% on its guidance cut, but the damage stayed isolated to that stock. The software ETF still managed to close higher despite one of its largest members getting destroyed. The economy is “expanding at a solid pace” according to the Fed. Industrial production beat expectations. Housing data showed stabilizing demand.
The after-hours story is messier. Carvana crashed 20%+ on an EBITDA miss and vague guidance. DoorDash missed then reversed on volume growth and a $5 billion buyback. Etsy surged on the Depop divestiture. Figma beat. Booking was flat. The post-close tape was a Choose Your Own Adventure novel where every chapter ended differently.
Forked Feed says: The market had its best day in over a week and it did so while the Federal Reserve floated the possibility of rate hikes for the first time in years. That’s either confidence or delusion and the difference between those two things is usually only visible in hindsight. The S&P rallied to 6,881, which puts the 6,900-7,000 resistance zone within arm’s reach for the first time in weeks. Software bounced. Chips rallied. Banks held. The equal-weight index outperformed again. Everything worked except Palo Alto, which got punished for the crime of spending $28 billion on acquisitions and then admitting that integrating them costs money. After the bell, the picture fractured: Carvana’s turnaround narrative imploded on a GPU miss, DoorDash pulled a Lazarus by turning a 10% crash into a 14% rally during its own conference call, and Etsy discovered that the most profitable thing it ever did with Depop was sell it to eBay. The Fed says it might raise rates. The market says it doesn’t care. Tomorrow brings Walmart earnings before the open, which will tell us whether the consumer that General Mills described as “uneasy” yesterday is uneasy enough to stop buying everything at Walmart. Spoiler: Walmart is at all-time highs. The consumer is uneasy, but they’re uneasy at great value prices.
⚡ The Setup
SPY 686.29 | BTC 66,711 | US10Y 4.094 | DXY 97.67
SPY settled at 686.29, putting the S&P at approximately 6,881 after the session’s broad-based rally. The index is now within 20 points of the 6,900 resistance level that has capped every rally in 2026. The intraday high tested 6,900+ before the FOMC minutes triggered a pullback, which means the ceiling was tested and held yet again. Tomorrow’s Walmart earnings could provide the catalyst to break through or confirm the rejection. Key support remains at 6,843 (yesterday’s close) and 6,780 (the intraday low from Tuesday that held twice). The after-hours picture is mixed: Carvana’s 20%+ plunge will weigh on consumer discretionary sentiment, while DoorDash’s reversal and Figma’s beat could provide tech tailwinds. The net is likely a flat-to-modestly-higher open, though Thursday’s data dump (jobless claims, Philly Fed, plus Walmart, Deere, Live Nation, and Newmont earnings) will determine direction before noon.
BTC slid to $66,711, extending its decline for yet another session and deepening the drawdown from October’s all-time high of $126,210 to nearly 47%. The cryptocurrency is now firmly below the $67,000 level that served as support through most of February. Its correlation with the software sector persists: on a day when software bounced 1.3%, Bitcoin failed to participate, which suggests the selloff has moved beyond correlation into outright apathy. The $65,000 floor remains the critical level. Below that, $61,000 is the next meaningful support. ETH fell to $1,964, continuing its slide below $2,000. Bitcoin dominance ticked up to 58.65%, meaning altcoins are bleeding faster than BTC. The total crypto market cap fell to $703 billion, down from $713 billion yesterday. There is no catalyst in sight, no narrative strong enough to reverse the bleed, and the FOMC minutes suggesting possible rate hikes is the opposite of what crypto bulls need to hear.
The 10-year yield rose to 4.094% from 4.060% yesterday, with the move accelerating after the FOMC minutes revealed some officials eyeing rate hikes. This is the second consecutive session of rising yields, and the bond market is clearly recalibrating around a higher-for-longer narrative. The spread between where the Fed is (3.5-3.75%) and where the 10-year sits (4.09%) reflects meaningful uncertainty about the path forward. If the Fed does signal hikes instead of cuts, the 10-year could push toward 4.25-4.50%, which would pressure equity valuations across the board. For now, the yield is in a no-man’s-land between the recent low of 4.00% and the February high of 4.10%. Friday’s PCE data will be the next decisive input. A hot print would validate the hawks. A cool print would give the doves ammunition.
DXY firmed to 97.67, its highest level in several days, as the hawkish FOMC minutes pushed the dollar higher. The dollar is now approaching the top of its 2026 range near 97.50-98.00. A breakout above 98 would put significant downward pressure on gold, silver, and emerging market currencies. The dollar’s strength today was the flip side of the Fed’s hawkish surprise: if rates might go up instead of down, the dollar gets more attractive. Gold managed to bounce 2% to around $4,970-$4,990 despite the stronger dollar, recovering roughly half of yesterday’s 3% crash, which suggests the precious metals trade isn’t dead, just bruised. Silver also bounced to $77. But if DXY pushes above 98 and the PCE data confirms sticky inflation, gold’s recovery could stall quickly.
🧩 Market Archetype: The False Dawn
The S&P rallied 0.56% and tested 6,900. Software bounced. Chips gained. Breadth was strong with 320 advancers. On paper, this looks like the start of something. In practice, it’s a False Dawn until proven otherwise. Every bounce in the last six weeks has been sold within one to three sessions. Friday’s software bounce lasted zero days. Tuesday’s round trip ended where it started. The pattern is clear: the market rallies on exhaustion of sellers, not conviction of buyers. Today’s session had elements of both, and the distinction matters enormously. The Nvidia-Meta deal provided a genuine catalyst for semis. Ackman’s Amazon stake increase was real buying. Wingstop and Analog Devices delivered actual earnings beats. But the FOMC minutes introduced a new variable: the possibility of rate hikes. And the after-hours tape, dominated by Carvana’s implosion, suggests that the earnings environment is still punishing anything that misses, no matter how strong the top line. A False Dawn becomes a real bottom only when the market absorbs bad news and holds its gains. Tomorrow’s Walmart report and Thursday’s data will test whether today’s rally has staying power or is just another bounce to be sold.
💧 Flow Pulse
The rotation continued to broaden, but with a notable twist: tech actually participated today. Nvidia gained 1.6%, driven by the Meta chip deal announced after Tuesday’s close. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1%. The IGV software ETF bounced 1.3%, its best session in weeks, though the rally was inconsistent across the sector. Palo Alto fell 7% on its guidance cut, but Palantir rose 1.8% on an upgrade, and Amplitude jumped 12.5% on an AI analytics product launch. The software bounce was real but selective.
Financials held their recent gains without extending them further. The sector has been the primary beneficiary of the rotation out of tech, with Citigroup, JPMorgan, and BofA all outperforming the index significantly in February. The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed the most overweight commodities position since May 2022, with cash at 3.4% of portfolios. Institutions are positioned for a “run it hot” economy and the most optimistic on growth since February 2022.
Energy stocks caught a bid as oil prices jumped on geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude has gained over 15% and the XLE energy ETF is up over 22% since the start of the year. WTI pushed above $65. This sector remains one of the cleanest long positions in the market: physical assets, real cash flow, geopolitical tailwinds, and zero AI disruption risk.
Gold bounced roughly 2% to $4,970-$4,990, recovering about half of yesterday’s 3% crash. Silver also rebounded to $77. The precious metals trade isn’t dead, but the $5,000 level has transformed from a launch pad into contested territory. The stronger dollar and hawkish FOMC minutes create a headwind, but Asian central bank buying continues to provide a floor.
Crypto continued to bleed. BTC fell to $66,711 despite the broader equity rally, confirming that its correlation with risk assets is one-way: it falls with software but doesn’t rally with tech. The total crypto market cap fell to $703 billion. ETH slipped below $1,964. There is no institutional bid, no narrative catalyst, and the FOMC’s mention of rate hikes is actively hostile to the “liquidity drives crypto” thesis.
Forked Feed says: Today’s flows told a more encouraging story than any session in the last two weeks, but the cracks are obvious. Tech rallied and software bounced, but Palo Alto proved that individual earnings misses can still override sector momentum. The Fed floated rate hikes and the bond market listened: yields rose for the second straight day to 4.09%. Gold bounced but the dollar is at multi-day highs. Bitcoin ignored the equity rally entirely and kept sliding. And after the bell, Carvana’s 20%+ implosion reminded everyone that the market is still capable of extreme punishment on the slightest profitability miss. The flows look like a market that wants to rally but doesn’t trust itself to do it. Institutions are buying banks, energy, and commodities. Retail is trying to catch the software bottom. Hedge funds are sizing up the mega-caps (Ackman buying Amazon, Druckenmiller reportedly adding to his Nvidia position). The money is moving, but it’s moving cautiously, and each new data point (FOMC minutes, PCE on Friday, Walmart tomorrow) has the power to reverse the direction overnight. The market is a coiled spring that keeps getting wound tighter. Today it bounced. Tomorrow it finds out if Walmart’s new CEO has anything interesting to say to a trillion-dollar company’s investors.
🔮 Forked Forecast
Bull Case (30%): Walmart delivers a strong report Thursday morning under its new CEO, confirming that the American consumer is spending despite being “uneasy.” The market interprets today’s rally as the beginning of a sustainable bounce, not a one-day wonder. Software continues to stabilize. The S&P breaks through 6,900 and targets 7,000. Nvidia earnings anticipation (February 25) pulls semis higher all week. The FOMC minutes’ hawkish tone fades from memory as Friday’s PCE comes in cool. Bitcoin finds support at $65K and bounces. DoorDash’s after-hours reversal sets a positive tone for growth names.
Base Case (50%): The market consolidates Wednesday’s gains but doesn’t extend them. Walmart reports in-line, providing neither spark nor panic. The S&P trades 6,850-6,900 (SPY 685-690), continuing to knock on the 6,900 ceiling without breaking through. Software stabilizes but doesn’t rally further. The FOMC minutes’ hawkish undertones keep yields elevated around 4.10%, capping multiple expansion. Carvana’s after-hours crash weighs on consumer discretionary but stays contained. Bitcoin drifts in the $65-67K range. The market waits for Friday’s PCE data and the Supreme Court’s possible tariff ruling to determine its next leg.
Bear Case (20%): Carvana’s 20%+ after-hours crash spills over into consumer discretionary sentiment Thursday morning. Walmart disappoints or guides conservatively, confirming the “uneasy” consumer thesis. The Fed’s rate hike language gains traction as yields push toward 4.15-4.20%. The S&P fails at 6,900 for the fourth time and slides back toward 6,800. Software’s one-day bounce proves to be another dead cat. Bitcoin breaks $65,000. The market enters Friday’s PCE data in defensive mode and a hot print triggers a broad risk-off move.
Triggers to Watch:
Walmart earnings (Thursday pre-market): First report under new CEO John Furner. Walmart is at all-time highs. The bar is elevated.
PCE data (Friday): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hot print validates the hawks who mentioned rate hikes in the minutes.
S&P 6,900: Tested and rejected intraday today. A clean break opens 7,000. Another failure confirms the range.
Carvana contagion: Does the 20%+ plunge stay isolated, or does it drag consumer discretionary and growth names lower?
Bitcoin $65,000: The last floor before the conversation shifts from “consolidation” to “crypto winter.”
Nvidia February 25: One week away. The Meta deal raised expectations. Every day between now and then is a pricing event.
Supreme Court tariff ruling: Friday remains the next scheduled opinion day. Markets have priced in uncertainty, not a ruling.
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💬 Final Thought
The market rallied, the Fed floated rate hikes, and Carvana died in the after-hours. All in the same session.
The S&P closed at 6,881, its best level in weeks, powered by 320 advancing stocks, a 1.3% bounce in software, and the lingering momentum from Meta’s tens-of-billions Nvidia deal. For six hours, the market looked like it was healing. Then at 2:00 PM, the FOMC minutes dropped and “several” officials casually mentioned that rates might need to go up, not down. The market flinched, pulled back from 6,900, then decided it didn’t care and held most of its gains anyway.
After the bell, the chaos resumed. Carvana reported record revenue and the stock crashed 20%+ because gross profit per unit fell for the second straight quarter and the guidance was a fortune cookie wrapped in a press release. DoorDash missed earnings, crashed 10%, then reversed +14% during the conference call because Tony Xu used the phrase “global tech stack” and authorized a $5 billion buyback. Etsy jumped 16% because selling Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion is the best thing Etsy has done in five years. Figma surged 13% because 40% revenue growth and 136% net dollar retention apparently still mean something, even in the SaaSpocalypse.
The Fed is divided. Some members want to cut. Some want to hike. Most want to hold. Powell is a lame duck. The next chair hasn’t been named. The institution that sets the price of money can’t agree on what direction money should cost, and it’s led by a man who won’t be leading it in three months. This is the backdrop against which the market is trying to rally.
Tomorrow: Walmart before the bell. John Deere. Live Nation. Newmont Mining. Jobless claims. The Philly Fed index. And somewhere in the background, Friday’s PCE data and a Supreme Court that might or might not rule on whether the tariffs are constitutional. The market rallied today. Whether it keeps rallying depends on whether “several” Fed officials floating rate hikes was a warning shot or just bureaucrats thinking out loud. In the Federal Reserve, the difference between the two is always unclear until it’s too late.
That’s all for issue #181. The S&P rallied 0.56% to 6,881, its best day in over a week, as tech bounced, software gained 1.3%, and Nvidia climbed 1.6% on the Meta chip deal. Then the FOMC minutes dropped at 2 PM and revealed that “several” officials think rate hikes could be necessary, the first time that word has appeared in an FOMC document since 2023. The market flinched and held. Palo Alto fell 7% during the session after beating earnings on both lines but cutting its EPS guide, because spending $28 billion on acquisitions in two months turns out to have margin consequences. After the close, Carvana crashed 20%+ on an EBITDA miss and vague guidance, its worst session since the near-bankruptcy days of late 2022. DoorDash missed EPS, dropped 10%, then reversed +14% during its earnings call because 32% order growth and a $5 billion buyback apparently cure all ills. Etsy surged 16% on selling Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion. Figma jumped 13% on 40% revenue growth. The 10-year yield rose to 4.09% on the hawkish Fed tone. Bitcoin fell to $66,711, ignoring the equity rally entirely. Gold bounced 2% to recover half of yesterday’s crash. The Fed is divided on whether to cut, hold, or hike, and the chair is a lame duck whose term ends in May. Tomorrow brings Walmart earnings under its new CEO, and the market gets to find out whether the world’s largest retailer can justify a trillion-dollar market cap while General Mills says Americans are too “uneasy” to buy name-brand cereal.
-- Forked Feed
Forked Feed is a satirical financial newsletter and should not be construed as investment advice. We're just here to point out the absurdity. Past performance of our snark does not guarantee future sarcasm.
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