The Fed Is Divided, Silver Bounced 10%, and 2025 Refuses to End Quietly. – Market Breakdown #150
FOMC minutes revealed a committee at war with itself, precious metals staged a dramatic recovery from Monday's carnage, copper logged its best year since the financial crisis, and stocks drifted lower
📊 THE MARKET BREAKDOWN
Weekly market intelligence for traders who think in systems, not headlines.
Issue #150 – December 30, 2025
🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
Fed Minutes Reveal December Rate Cut Was “Finely Balanced,” Committee Deeply Divided
Forked Feed says: The world’s most powerful monetary authority revealed today that it has absolutely no idea what it’s doing, and would like you to know that this is fine. The 9-3 vote was apparently even closer than advertised, with several “yes” votes admitting they could have easily been “no” votes, which is the institutional equivalent of your pilot announcing mid-flight that he’s not entirely sure which pedal makes the plane go up. “Finely balanced” is Fed-speak for “we flipped a coin and it landed on its edge.” The hawks think inflation is stuck. The doves think unemployment is rising. Everyone agrees they need more data, which is convenient because “waiting for data” is the one thing central bankers can do indefinitely without anyone noticing they’re paralyzed. The market responded by not moving at all, having long ago accepted that the Fed is just vibes now.
Silver Rebounds 10% After Worst Day in Four Years
Forked Feed says: Silver, having experienced what can only be described as a complete emotional breakdown yesterday, picked itself up off the floor, dusted itself off, and rallied 10% like nothing happened. This is the precious metals equivalent of texting your ex at 2am, blocking them, then unblocking them the next morning to say “hey.” Gold also bounced, because gold always bounces, because somewhere a central banker is printing money and gold can smell it. The official explanation is “the structural supply deficit thesis remains intact.” The honest explanation is that everyone who panic-sold yesterday immediately regretted it and panic-bought today. China’s export restrictions still take effect tomorrow. The silver squeeze thesis is still alive. And the people who called Monday’s crash “the end of the bull market” are now pretending they never said that. Markets have no memory. Only positions.
Copper Posts Best Year Since 2009, Hits Record Highs
Forked Feed says: While silver and gold were busy having a very public nervous breakdown, copper quietly became the best-performing major commodity since the financial crisis, and nobody cared because “industrial metal posts steady gains” doesn’t generate clicks. Copper is up 41%. It hit record highs. It’s on an eight-day winning streak. The narrative has evolved from “Dr. Copper diagnoses the economy” to “Dr. Copper diagnoses your AI data center’s desperate need for wiring.” Turns out when you build server farms the size of small cities, you need a lot of metal that conducts electricity. Who knew. Goldman raised its price target. Analysts are warning of deficits. And retail investors are too busy watching silver’s psychotic episodes to notice that the boring reddish metal is quietly making people very rich. This is the market’s way of punishing anyone who only pays attention to things that move dramatically.
Stocks Fall for Third Straight Session as Year-End Drift Continues
Forked Feed says: The S&P 500 fell for a third straight day, which is being treated as newsworthy despite the index being up 17% on the year. The Santa Claus rally, that sacred seasonal phenomenon that financial media insists on covering every December like it’s a genuine investment strategy, has officially failed to appear. Santa, reached for comment, reportedly said he’s “tired of being blamed for portfolio performance” and “maybe try having a thesis that isn’t based on calendar superstition.” Nvidia fell. Palantir fell. The Magnificent Seven are being trimmed like a hedge that got too ambitious. But here’s the thing: if you’re upset about three down days after the market gained 17%, you should probably recalibrate your expectations. One day left. The year was a success. Let the portfolio managers have their window-dressing and go home.
Global Stocks Post Biggest Annual Gain in Six Years
Forked Feed says: Global stocks had their best year since 2019, which is being presented as evidence that the system works rather than evidence that asset prices go up when central banks cut rates and governments run massive deficits. The MSCI All Country World Index gained 21%. The S&P 500 gained 17% after gaining 24% last year after gaining 23% the year before. At this rate, by 2030 a share of the S&P 500 will cost more than a house, which will be fine because nobody will be able to afford houses anyway. Gold had its best year since 1979. Silver nearly tripled. Copper had its best year since the financial crisis. If you owned literally anything except cash in 2025, congratulations, you’re richer. If you held cash because you were “waiting for a pullback,” condolences, the pullback was in April and lasted about three weeks and you probably missed it. Wall Street analysts remain bullish for 2026, which is what Wall Street analysts are paid to be.
🔎 Today’s Focus — “The Committee at War”
The Fed just released the most interesting meeting minutes in years, and the market mostly ignored them.
The December FOMC meeting produced a 9-3 vote to cut rates by 25 basis points, the most dissent since 2019. But the minutes reveal the division was even deeper than the final tally. Multiple members who voted for the cut explicitly stated they could have voted against it. The decision was described as “finely balanced.” In Fed-speak, that’s the equivalent of admitting the coin landed on its edge.
The hawks worry that inflation has stalled above target. The annual rate sits at 2.8%, well north of the 2% goal. Progress toward price stability, which seemed inevitable a year ago, has plateaued. The tariffs that were supposed to be inflationary have instead created a complex dynamic where higher prices are met with lower spending, which creates its own deflationary pressure. The Fed is trying to navigate an economy that simultaneously runs hot and shows signs of cooling. This is not a normal dilemma.
The doves worry about the labor market. Job gains have slowed. The unemployment rate has edged higher. The risk of over-tightening, which seemed academic when rate cuts began, now feels more tangible. If the economy slows faster than expected, today’s policy rate could look restrictive in hindsight.
And then there’s the wild card: the 43-day government shutdown in October and November created a “data desert” that left policymakers flying blind during the final quarter. Key economic reports were delayed or distorted. The Fed made its December decision with less information than it normally has, which explains why so many members were uncomfortable with the outcome.
The market response to all this drama was: essentially nothing. The S&P 500 barely moved after the release. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher. The dollar strengthened modestly. Traders are pricing in a Fed that holds rates unchanged in January and possibly through March, with maybe one more cut in the second half of 2026. The internal divisions are interesting but not actionable.
Here’s the real story: the Fed has lost the ability to guide markets because markets have stopped believing the Fed knows what it’s doing.
Three years ago, a Fed meeting produced clear direction. The dot plot told you where rates were going. The statement told you why. The minutes filled in the details. Today, the dot plot shows seven members wanting no cuts next year, others wanting two or three, and the range of projections is so wide it’s essentially useless. The statement is hedged beyond recognition. The minutes reveal disagreement at every turn.
This isn’t necessarily bad for markets. A confused Fed is a Fed that probably won’t make dramatic moves in either direction. The path of least resistance is to hold steady, wait for data, and avoid forcing anyone to change their view. That’s a recipe for low volatility and gradual drift, which is exactly what we’ve seen.
But it does mean that the next surprise, whatever it is, will hit harder. A Fed that can’t agree on what it’s doing today will struggle to respond quickly to tomorrow’s crisis. The divided committee is a feature of 2025’s uncertainty. It could become a bug if 2026 brings anything unexpected.
⚡ The Setup
SPY ~ 687.01 | BTC ~ 88,493 | US10Y ~ 4.13% | DXY ~ 98.26
Tuesday was the day after the storm, and it showed.
Precious metals rebounded aggressively. Silver jumped 10% to $77.48 after Monday’s catastrophic 8.7% drop. Gold recovered to $4,368, gaining back about a third of Monday’s losses. Platinum rose 5%. The recovery confirmed what the bulls suspected: Monday’s selloff was a technical liquidation event, not a fundamental thesis collapse. China’s export restrictions still take effect January 1st. The supply deficit still exists. The weak hands have simply been flushed.
Equities drifted lower for a third consecutive session. The S&P 500 fell 0.14% to close at 6,896. The Nasdaq lost 0.24% to 23,419. The Dow shed 95 points to 48,367. Volume remains thin, which is typical for the final week of the year but makes every move feel slightly hollow. There’s no conviction in either direction.
Bitcoin held $88,493. Ethereum sat at $2,975. The crypto complex remains range-bound, seemingly immune to both the precious metals chaos and the equity market drift. Bitcoin’s correlation to everything else has broken down, which either means it’s maturing as an asset class or nobody knows what to do with it.
Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year at 4.13%. The Fed minutes confirmed a divided committee, but the market reaction was muted because the divisions were already priced in. The dollar strengthened slightly to 98.26. Oil held near $58.
VIX edged up to 14.33. The MOVE index at 63.98 signals continued calm in bond markets despite the Fed’s internal conflicts. The volatility regime remains suppressed even as commodities swing wildly.
One trading day remains. The setup is neither bullish nor bearish. It’s exhausted.
🧩 Market Archetype — “The Final Accounting”
Today’s archetype is reflective, evaluative, and slightly melancholic.
The Final Accounting is what happens when a year ends and participants take stock. The P&L is locked. The winners and losers are determined. The narratives that defined the year crystallize into history. Trading becomes less about positioning for the future and more about closing the books on the past.
This archetype produces strange market behavior. Tax-loss harvesting pushes losing positions lower in the final days. Gain-locking pushes winners into profit-taking. Window dressing by institutional managers creates flows into the year’s best performers, regardless of forward value. The result is low-conviction drift punctuated by random spikes in individual names.
The 2025 Final Accounting is particularly loaded. Silver nearly tripled. Gold hit 50 record highs. Copper had its best year since 2009. The S&P 500 gained 17% after gaining 24% in 2024 and 23% in 2023. The Magnificent Seven dominated again, though the concentration in mega-cap tech has reached levels that make some strategists nervous. The year was a success by any traditional measure, but the path was anything but smooth.
The market’s job now is to decide whether 2025’s returns were the product of durable trends or temporary enthusiasm. The AI thesis drove trillions in valuation gains. The precious metals thesis drove record prices. The “soft landing” thesis kept recession fears at bay. If these narratives hold, 2026 could extend the rally. If any of them break, the reckoning will be swift.
Tomorrow is the last trading day. Then the final accounting becomes official, and the new year’s speculation begins.
🧭 Flow Pulse
Precious metals flows reversed sharply. After Monday’s massive outflows from silver ETFs, Tuesday saw aggressive dip-buying. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) recovered a significant portion of Monday’s losses as traders who sold the crash immediately bought the recovery. Gold ETF flows were more muted but still positive. The speed of the round-trip suggests institutional traders were repositioning rather than abandoning the thesis.
Equity flows remained defensive. Tech saw continued profit-taking, with Nvidia and Palantir both declining despite no company-specific news. Financials and healthcare attracted modest inflows as investors rotated toward lower-volatility sectors. Small caps underperformed large caps, which is typical in thin year-end trading when liquidity matters.
Bond flows were modest. Treasury yields rose slightly after the Fed minutes, but there was no panic selling. The minutes confirmed what everyone expected: a divided committee unlikely to make aggressive moves in either direction. That’s neutral for duration positioning.
Crypto flows stabilized. Bitcoin ETF inflows remained positive but unremarkable. The decoupling from precious metals continues; when silver crashes 8.7% and Bitcoin doesn’t flinch, it suggests different investor bases with different motivations.
Forked Feed says: The flow picture today was dominated by mean reversion. Everything that got killed Monday bounced Tuesday. Everything that held up Monday drifted Tuesday. The market is arbitraging its own volatility, which is what happens when there’s no new information and everyone is just positioning around each other’s positions. The most interesting flow wasn’t in any single asset; it was the aggregate message that 2025’s thesis remains intact despite Monday’s scare. Silver bulls bought the dip. Gold bulls bought the dip. Even copper, which didn’t dip, got bought. The hard asset trade isn’t dead. It just needed to shake out the tourists.
🔮 Forked Forecast
Base Case (60%): Quiet Close, Clean Start The final trading day is uneventful. SPY finishes the year between 685-695. Precious metals consolidate near current levels. Volume remains thin. Everyone closes their books, takes credit for the year’s gains, and begins positioning for January. The Santa Claus rally officially fails to deliver its historical average, but nobody cares because 17% annual returns are plenty.
Bull Case (25%): Last-Day Surge Window dressing accelerates. Managers chase the year’s winners to lock in performance. Tech bounces. Precious metals extend Tuesday’s recovery. SPY pushes toward 700 and closes at new highs, cementing 2025 as an exceptional year. The momentum carries into early January as the “January Effect” reinforces the Santa Claus rally.
Bear Case (15%): Year-End Surprise Something breaks. Geopolitical news, an unexpected data release, or simply thin liquidity triggering cascading stops. SPY tests 680. Precious metals give back Tuesday’s gains. The market enters 2026 on a cautious note, with January positioning reflecting renewed uncertainty rather than continued optimism.
Triggers to Watch:Silver’s behavior overnight. If it gives back today’s gains in Asian trading, Monday’s crash wasn’t fully absorbed.
China’s silver export restrictions taking effect January 1. Any implementation surprises could move the metal.
Bitcoin’s $85K support. A break lower would signal risk-off sentiment spreading to crypto.
VIX remaining below 15. If it spikes above, the calm is ending.
Treasury yields. A move above 4.20% on the 10-year would signal bond market anxiety about the Fed’s path.
💬 Final Thought
Issue #150 of The Market Breakdown arrives at the penultimate trading day of a year that refused to be boring.
The S&P 500 is up 17%. The Nasdaq is up 21%. Gold is up 66%, its best year since 1979. Silver is up 166%, its best year in decades. Copper is up 41%, its best year since 2009. The market absorbed April’s tariff panic, October’s government shutdown, and December’s precious metals flash crash, and kept climbing.
The Fed is divided. The committee that’s supposed to guide monetary policy can’t agree on whether inflation or unemployment is the bigger risk. The December rate cut passed 9-3, but the minutes reveal it was closer to 50-50 in the room. Markets have responded by essentially ignoring the Fed and pricing in their own view: rates stay roughly here for a while, inflation drifts lower eventually, and the economy avoids recession. It’s a bet on muddle-through, which has been the winning bet for most of the post-pandemic era.
Tomorrow is the last day. Then the books close, the annual returns are official, and the 2026 guessing game begins.
Three years of double-digit gains. Valuations at historical extremes. CAPE ratios that historically correlate with low forward returns. And analysts who remain overwhelmingly bullish because the trend is the trend until it isn’t.
Maybe they’re right. Maybe AI is genuinely transformative, and the valuations are justified, and the earnings growth will continue. Maybe precious metals are pricing in a decade of fiscal excess that hasn’t arrived yet. Maybe the soft landing was real and 2026 is another year of steady progress.
Or maybe 2025 was the year everyone agreed on everything, and 2026 is when the disagreements start mattering.
Either way, it’s been a pleasure documenting the chaos. Issue #150. One more day to go.
Final day tomorrow. Close out your positions, pour a drink, and remember: the market will be here in 2026. The question is whether you’ll be ready for it.
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