Tech slips, dollar perks, oil idles; BTC nudges higher — Market Breakdown #78
Stocks eased into Jackson Hole, crude stayed tame, the buck inched up, and crypto rotated quietly.
📊 THE MARKET BREAKDOWN
Daily market intelligence for traders who think in systems, not headlines.
Issue #78 – August 20, 2025
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🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower as investors sell tech, buy less-pricey sectors — Reuters
Forked Feed: “AI took a water break; staples brought the orange slices.”Oil climbs ~2% on surprise U.S. crude draw as peace push stalls — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Peace premium flubbed its lines; inventories did the heavy lifting.”Powell’s last Jackson Hole speech could pack a punch — Reuters
Forked Feed: “One more sermon from the mountain; quants bring smelling salts.”China weighs yuan-backed stablecoins to boost global use of the CNY — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Beijing’s ‘digital duct tape’ for trade; dollar, meet your shadow.”UK sanctions hit Russian crypto networks, Kyrgyz conduits — Reuters
Forked Feed: “If you can’t freeze the war, at least freeze the wallets.”
🔎 Today’s Focus — What Moved the Tape
Funding steady, dollar firmer, equities softer: US10Y 4.298 (+0.16%) with DXY 98.284 (+0.07%) while SPY 638.11 (-0.27%), QQQ 565.90 (-0.59%); position de-risk into Powell, not a regime flip.
Energy stayed a passenger: WTI 63.81 (+0.25%) after inventory chatter; still too calm to re-ignite inflation beta.
Vol didn’t scare anyone: VIX 15.69 (+0.77%) crept, leaving trend systems mostly intact.
Crypto was selective: BTC 114,707 (+0.33%) up, ETH 4,331 (-0.12%) down; BTC.D 59.35 (+0.02%), TOTAL3 +0.51%; light alt participation with BTC holding court.
🧭 Top Charts of the Week
SPY: $638.11
QQQ: $565.90
🧭 Risk-On Flows
Quality still > beta; oil tame; alt tilt tiny.
Equities: SPY -0.27%, QQQ -0.59%; VIX 15.69 (+0.8%); pre-event trimming.
Crypto: BTC +0.33%, ETH -0.12%; BTC.D 59.35 (+0.02%), TOTAL3 +0.51%; marginal rotation.
Commodities: WTI +0.25%, Gold -0.19%; no inflation scare.
Bonds & Dollar: US10Y 4.298 (+0.16%), DXY 98.284 (+0.07%); buck perked, curve steady.
Forked Feed Early Warning: “Calm water hides rips. Jackson Hole can flip the tide in one paragraph.”
₿ Bitcoin & Crypto
BTC/USD: $114000
ETH/USD: $4286
🧭 Sovereignty Signal
Quality Spread Pivot
When investment-grade outperforms high-yield (think LQD/HYG ↑) while the 2s10s curve steepens and DXY holds firm, capital is paying for legal certainty and balance-sheet strength. Expect mega-cap quality to beat small-cap cyclicals and alts to stay selective.
Tactile read:
If LQD/HYG > 30-day high and 2s10s steepens by ≥5 bps day-over-day, trim SMID/energy, favor cash-rich megacaps and a BTC-over-alts tilt.
If LQD/HYG rolls over and DXY < 98.0, broaden risk to RSP and ETH.
If VIX > 16.5, reduce across the board regardless.
🏅 Commodities / Gold / Silver / Oil
Gold: $3341
Silver: $37.85
WTI: $63.80
🧮 Rates / Bonds / Dollar
10Y Yield: 4.293%
30Y: Yield: 4.91%
DXY: 98.270
🔄 Altcoin Market Overview
🔢 Key Metrics
• BTC Dominance 59.44%
• TOTAL3 ≈ $1.03T
• Altseason Index 53/100 (Emerging Rotation)
🧠 Sentiment Snapshot
Fear-&-Greed (crypto): 71 (Greed)
CoinCodex Sentiment: 100 (Bullish)
📉 Sector Breakdown
AI: AGIX $0.5938 | FET $0.676
Layer-1: SOL $186.50 | DOT $3.868 | ATOM $4.461
Layer-2: ARB $0.5081 | OP $0.723
Memes: DOGE $0.22055 | WIF $0.867 | PEPE 0.00001058
RWA: ONDO $0.9400 | NXRA $0.00915
🧠 Concept Spotlight:
Equal-Weight Reality Check
Cap-weighted indices can levitate on a handful of names. Track RSP/SPY: when equal-weight lags while SPY nudges up, it’s multiple cosmetics. Trade the leaders, but don’t confuse index green with market health. Only scale when RSP/SPY stops bleeding.
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📌 Key Takeaways
Tech slipped as the dollar firmed and everyone pre-positioned for Powell.
Oil’s pop came from draws, not geopolitics; still not an inflation problem.
Crypto headlines buzzed; flows stayed selective with BTC steady.
📅 Watchlist & Triggers
SPY > 646 reclaims momentum; < 636 risks follow-through lower.
QQQ > 574 revives tech bid; < 558 warns rotation.
BTC > 116,000 opens impulse; < 112,800 tests support.
ETH > 4,380 reignites alts; < 4,200 cools.
Gold > 3,360 strengthens hedge; < 3,300 trims.
WTI > 65.0 relief bounce; < 61.8 extends slump.
DXY > 98.8 tightens risk; < 97.8 loosens.
US10Y > 4.35% pressures multiples; < 4.20% soothes.
VIX > 16.5 reloads hedges; < 14.8 stay long.US10Y > 4.35% pressures multiples; < 4.20% soothes.
VIX > 16.5 reloads hedges; < 14.8 stay long.
💬 Final Thought
This was pre-speech posture, not trend. If Powell cools the buck and nudges yields lower, lean back into quality growth and ETH. If he stiffens the dollar or sparks a vol pop, get lighter and let the first swing exhaust.
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