Stagflation Fears Pinch Markets, Crypto Gets Lift — Market Breakdown #67
ISM’s price surge and tariff politics shake equities and bonds, while a CFTC crypto tweak fuels digital-asset flows.
📊 THE MARKET BREAKDOWN
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Issue #67 – August 5, 2025
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🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
Trading Day: Stagflation-ISM rattles confidence — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Services flatlined; price pressures popped like a balloon at a clown party.”Markets struggle to price smoke and mirrors — Reuters
Forked Feed: “BLS boss ousted; data integrity took a hit worse than your last margin call.”CFTC moves to list spot crypto on futures venues — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Regulators say ‘show me the tokens’ and the market cheered.”
🔎 Today’s Focus — What Moved the Tape
ISM pain points: July services PMI held at 50.2 but input costs jumped to a near-three-year high, sparking stagflation jitters. Reuters
Tariff theatrics: Trump’s suspension of “Liberation Day” tariffs until August 7 offers only a breath of relief amid trade-war theatrics. Reuters
Crypto integration: The CFTC’s green light for spot-crypto trading on registered exchanges ignited $120M in Bitcoin and Ether inflows. Reuters
🧭 Top Charts of the Week
SPY: $627.97
QQQ: $560.27
🧭 Risk-On Flows
Equities: S&P 500 -0.51% (627.97); Nasdaq -0.68% (560.27); cyclicals outperformed defensives.
Crypto: BTC +0.26% ($113659); ETH -0.99% ($3575), dominance at 61.95%.
Commodities: Gold -0.06% ($3378.43); WTI +0.39% ($66.03); oil steadies on OPEC+ cues.
Bonds & Dollar: 10Y yield +0.24% (4.218%); DXY +0.06% (98.817); mixed signals on risk.
₿ Bitcoin & Crypto
BTC/USD: $113764
ETH/USD: $3581
🧭 Sovereignty Signal
Yield Curve Tug
When 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields diverge by more than 50 bp, traders balance between Fed-cut hopes and fiscal-risk caution. Watch the spread for conviction shifts.
🏅 Commodities / Gold / Silver / Oil
Gold: $3378
Silver: $37.853
WTI: $66.040
🧮 Rates / Bonds / Dollar
10Y Yield: 4.218%
30Y: Yield: 4.77%
DXY: 98.801
🔄 Altcoin Market Overview
🔢 Key Metrics
• BTC Dominance 61.95%
• TOTAL3 ≈ $959.5B
• Altseason Index 35/100 (Muted Rotation)
📉 Sector Breakdown
AI: AGIX $0.5938 | FET $0.638
Layer-1: SOL $162.32 | DOT $3.589 | ATOM $4.193
Layer-2: ARB $0.3775 | OP $0.648
Memes: DOGE $0.19788 | WIF $0.865 | PEPE 0.00001008
RWA: ONDO $0.9124 | NXRA $0.00789
🧠 Sentiment Snapshot
Fear-&-Greed (crypto): 60 (Greed)
CoinCodex Sentiment: 58 (Bullish)
🧠 Concept Spotlight:
Stagflationary Crosscurrent
When input‐cost inflation spikes even as growth stalls, markets flow into protection (Treasuries, gold, and quality cyclicals) while riskier sectors tread water. Tracking the divergence between producer prices and PMI readings reveals where capital seeks shelter versus where it chases yield.
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📌 Key Takeaways
ISM’s input-cost surge revives stagflation talk; heightened volatility ahead.
Data-integrity scare underscores geopolitical influence on market trust.
Crypto’s institutional gateway widens; spot trading enters the mainstream.
Cross-asset flows remain bifurcated: growth in semis, safety in gold and Treasuries.
📅 Watchlist & Triggers
SPY > 635 to reclaim momentum; < 620 risks fresh lows.
QQQ > 565 for tech strength; < 550 warns rotation.
BTC > 116K sustains base; < 112K tests support.
ETH > 3700 to confirm alt bounce; < 3500 flags caution.
Gold > 3420 extends safe-haven bid; < 3350 opens capitulation.
WTI > 68 presses supply view; < 66 reopens stockbuild risk.
DXY > 99 tightens dollar-led drag; < 98.5 revives risk-on flows.
US10Y > 4.30% tightens financial conditions; < 4.15% soothes yield curve.
VIX > 20 signals panic mode; < 16 sustains calm.
💬 Final Thought
As price pressures collide with tepid activity, markets will bifurcate further. Lean into assets that anchor amid stagflation (high-grade bonds, quality growth stocks, and crypto’s nascent regulated channels) while staying nimble for policy pivots.
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