Silver Screams to Record Highs, Banks Beat and Drop, Bill Pulte Threatens His Own Family's Industry – Market Breakdown #159
Core PPI came in flat, precious metals partying like it's 1980, and the grandson of a homebuilding dynasty just threatened homebuilders with "sticks" for doing exactly what his family's company does.
📊 THE MARKET BREAKDOWN
Weekly market intelligence for traders who think in systems, not headlines.
Issue #159 – January 14, 2026
🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
Silver Breaks $90 for First Time Ever, Gold Hits $4,650
Forked Feed says: Silver just had its best two weeks since the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market in 1980 and probably ended up sleeping on their brother’s couch. Up 26% in 2026 alone. Gold is up 7%. The VIX is at 16. Apparently the correct response to a criminal investigation of the Fed Chair, the invasion of a sovereign nation, 2,500 dead protesters in Iran, and NATO allies deploying troops to Greenland to defend against... us... is to buy shiny rocks and pretend everything is fine. UBS is now targeting $5,000 gold and $100 silver “in the coming months.” Somewhere a goldbug who’s been preparing for this moment since 1974 is crying tears of vindication into his commemorative Reagan half-dollars.
Denmark Says “Fundamental Disagreement” Remains After Greenland White House Talks
Forked Feed says: The Danes left the White House today having achieved the diplomatic equivalent of “we’ve agreed to keep talking about how much we disagree.” Trump, meanwhile, said from the Oval Office that he “won’t give up options” on Greenland, which is definitely something you say about acquiring territory from an ally. Denmark responded by deploying more troops to the Arctic “in close cooperation with our allies,” which is NATO-speak for “please don’t invade us, we’re literally in your alliance.” Sweden sent troops to Greenland. Germany is sending a reconnaissance team. The fact that European nations are now positioning forces to potentially defend against the United States is not the plotline anyone had on their 2026 bingo card.
Bill Pulte Threatens Homebuilders Over Stock Buybacks, Including His Own Family’s Company
Forked Feed says: Bill Pulte, grandson of the founder of PulteGroup, just told the Wall Street Journal he’s looking into punishing homebuilders for doing buybacks while housing prices stay high. “Read between the lines,” he said. “Sticks are on the table.” Meanwhile, PulteGroup spent $900 million on buybacks in the first nine months of 2025. D.R. Horton did $4.3 billion. Lennar did $1.7 billion. So to recap: the guy whose family fortune comes from homebuilding, who runs the agency that oversees Fannie and Freddie, is threatening to restrict GSE access for homebuilders unless they stop doing what his family’s company does. The conflict of interest isn’t even hiding anymore. It’s just sitting on the couch eating Doritos and asking if you have any more.
Bank of America Beats, Wells Fargo Misses, Both Stocks Get Crushed Anyway
Forked Feed says: Bank of America posted $7.6 billion in net income, beat on both lines, and the stock fell 3.8%. Wells Fargo’s first quarter without the Fed’s asset cap since 2018 resulted in a slight miss and a 4.6% cratering. Citigroup missed everything and dropped 3.3%. The pattern is clear: you can have the best earnings in four years and the market will still punish you because nobody knows if credit cards will be a profitable business in six months. This is what Policy Hostage syndrome looks like. Fundamentals don’t matter when the President can tweet-cap your business model.
Iran Death Toll Passes 2,500 as US Evacuates Troops from Major Middle East Base
Forked Feed says: Iran’s judiciary announced they’ll do “fast trials and executions” for protesters, explicitly telling Trump to go pound sand on his red line. The US responded by evacuating troops from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar as a “precaution.” Senator Lindsey Graham is calling for strikes “sooner rather than later.” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of a “decisive response to any miscalculation.” So we’ve got a regime that’s killed thousands of its own citizens, a US president who says “help is on the way,” troops being moved out of harm’s way, and both sides talking like military action is imminent. Oil is barely moving. Markets shrugged. The precious metals market, at least, is reading the room.
🔎 Today’s Focus — “The Great Divergence”
The big macro story today isn’t in the data. PPI came in soft: 0.2% headline, flat core. Great! Disinflation narrative intact! Nobody cared.
The real story is the continuing rotation out of mega-cap tech and into everything else. The Russell 2000 has now beaten the S&P 500 for nine straight sessions, the longest streak since 1990. All seven Magnificent Seven stocks fell today. The Nasdaq dropped 1%, its worst day in a month. But over 300 stocks in the S&P 500 actually rose.
This is the great divergence. The index is down, but the market is broadening. The AI trade is taking a breather while small caps, value, and cyclicals catch a bid. The question is whether this is healthy rotation or the early stages of a leadership change.
Meanwhile, precious metals are screaming. Gold hit $4,650. Silver broke $90 for the first time ever and hit an all-time high of $92.22 intraday. Copper and tin also hit records. This isn’t just inflation hedging or safe-haven buying. This is a full-blown metals mania driven by Fed independence concerns, geopolitical chaos, and Chinese buying.
The market is sending a message: risk assets are taking a pause, but the fear trade is accelerating.
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⚡ The Setup
SPY ~ 690.36 | BTC ~ 96,481 | US10Y ~ 4.14% | DXY ~ 99.11
The S&P 500 fell 0.53% to close at 6,926.60, its second consecutive down day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped just 0.09% to 49,149.63 as energy names like Exxon provided a counterweight. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.00% to 23,471.75, its worst session in a month, as every Magnificent Seven stock fell.
Gold closed near record highs at $4,613, just below its intraday peak of $4,650. Silver finished at $89.54 after touching $92.22. Bitcoin climbed back above $96,000, recovering from last week’s dip below $90,000. The dollar index held near 99.10 as rate cut expectations remain muted. The 10-year yield eased slightly to 4.14%.
The VIX rose to 16.75, its highest close of 2026, but still nowhere near levels that would suggest genuine panic. Small caps continued their remarkable streak, with the Russell 2000 outperforming for a ninth straight session.
🧩 Market Archetype — “The Great Rotation”
For the first time in months, the story isn’t about what the Fed might do or what the President might tweet. It’s about what’s actually happening in the market itself.
Tech is being sold. Small caps are being bought. Mega-cap momentum names that led the market in 2025 are suddenly out of favor. But this isn’t panic selling, it’s a position adjustment. The “Magnificent Seven” trade got too crowded, valuations got too stretched, and now money is finding new homes.
This is textbook rotation behavior. After two years of concentration in a handful of AI-adjacent names, the market is finally broadening out. The Russell 2000’s nine-day winning streak against the S&P 500 is historic for a reason: it almost never happens.
What makes this rotation different is the backdrop. Usually you rotate into small caps because you’re bullish on the economy. But this time, the rotation is happening alongside record precious metals prices and escalating geopolitical tension. It’s as if investors are saying: “We still like equities, just not those equities, and also, let’s hedge with some gold just in case.”
The risk is that rotation turns into something uglier. If tech selling accelerates, the index weights will drag the S&P down even as most stocks rise. The divergence between price-weighted breadth and cap-weighted returns could get extreme.
For now, this is healthy. But “healthy rotation” and “uh oh, leadership is changing” can look identical at the start.
🧭 Flow Pulse
Heavy tech selling dominated the tape once again. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1% as Nvidia dropped 1.4%, Microsoft shed 2.4%, and Broadcom lost 4.2%. Mag 7 flows have been negative for six straight sessions now.
Small caps continued their remarkable run. The Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 for a ninth consecutive day, the longest streak since 1990. IWM saw steady inflows as investors rotated out of mega-cap concentration.
Precious metals flows exploded higher. Gold and silver ETFs saw their biggest daily inflows in months as both metals hit record highs. Mining stocks Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan rode the wave, with silver miners outperforming gold miners substantially.
Bank stocks sold off despite mixed-to-positive earnings. BAC, WFC, and C all fell 3-5% on what should have been solid results. Policy uncertainty continues to outweigh fundamentals for the sector.
Homebuilder selling intensified. D.R. Horton dropped over 2%, with Lennar and KB Home following, after Bill Pulte’s buyback comments spooked the sector. XHB saw notable outflows.
Forked Feed says: The flow story is becoming a tale of two markets. On one side, you have the crowded AI trade finally getting unwound, with hedge funds that spent 2025 piling into Nvidia and Microsoft now hitting the sell button in unison. On the other side, you have small caps, value, and commodities catching bids from money that needs to go somewhere. The rotation is so aggressive that over 300 S&P 500 stocks rose today while the index fell half a percent. Pay attention because that’s reshuffling, not a selloff. The question now is whether the reshuffling stays orderly or not. Because if tech selling accelerates and small cap buying doesn’t absorb the flow, we could have a problem. For now, precious metals are the release valve. Silver up 26% in two weeks is the market’s way of saying: “We’re not sure what’s happening, but we’d like some shiny stuff just in case.”
🔮 Forked Forecast
Base Case (55%):Rotation Continues, Indexes Churn
The tech-to-small-cap rotation extends through the week. S&P stays range-bound between 6,850 and 7,000 as mega-cap weakness offsets small-cap strength. Precious metals consolidate near highs but don’t make major new moves. Iran situation remains tense but doesn’t escalate to military action. Banks stabilize after earnings digestion. VIX drifts toward 18.
Bull Case (20%): Rotation Broadens into Rally
Earnings from Goldman Sachs and other financial names beat expectations and hold. Policy concerns fade as credit card cap rhetoric is dismissed as posturing. Iran de-escalation signals emerge. Small cap leadership pulls the broader market higher. S&P pushes toward 7,100. Precious metals pull back modestly on reduced safe-haven demand.
Bear Case (25%): Rotation Turns Into Risk-Off
Tech selling accelerates as hedge funds derisk further. Iran situation escalates with military action or executed protesters. Greenland talks break down entirely. Policy uncertainty intensifies as more Trump administration interventions spook markets. VIX breaks 20. Gold pushes toward $4,800. S&P tests 6,750 support.
Triggers to Watch:
Iran execution situation and any US military response
Goldman Sachs earnings Thursday morning
Any clarification on credit card rate cap mechanics
Greenland working group developments
China response to 25% Iran trading partner tariff
Retail sales revision commentary (November data released today)
💬 Final Thought
There’s something almost comforting about a day where the market does something it almost never does.
Nine straight sessions of Russell 2000 outperformance against the S&P 500. You have to go back to 1990 to find the last time that happened. That’s a signal. The market is trying to tell us something.
What it’s saying, I think, is this: the era of seven stocks mattering and 493 stocks being an afterthought might be ending. For two years, the market has been a narrow bet on AI, on Nvidia’s pricing power, on Microsoft’s cloud growth, on the idea that a handful of mega-caps could carry everything on their backs forever.
Maybe they still can. Maybe this is just a pause before the next leg up in the AI trade. But the rotation happening now feels different. It’s not panicked. It’s deliberate. Money isn’t leaving the market. It’s just finding new addresses.
Meanwhile, gold and silver are doing something they haven’t done in decades. Silver at $92 is a generational high. Gold at $4,600 would have seemed insane two years ago. The metals market is pricing in something the equity market isn’t: genuine structural uncertainty about institutions, about sovereignty, about what happens when the world’s largest economy starts talking about acquiring allied territory and its central bank chair is under criminal investigation.
The S&P can shrug off a lot. It’s shrugging off most of this. But the metals market is the canary, and that canary is screaming.
Nine sessions. Longest streak since 1990. Either this is the start of something, or it’s a head-fake before the mega-caps reassert dominance.
Either way, pay attention. The market doesn’t do this often. So, when it does, it usually means something.
That’s all for issue #159. The tech trade is rotating, the metals are screaming, and small caps are having a moment. The question is whether the moment becomes a movement.
— Forked Feed
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